Kipchoge??? What a bizarre pick. Get ready for another 10th place finish and a boatload of excuses!
Not if he's willing to get sauced! Can't be dirty (applies to any athlete) if you stay in the olympic village the whole 16+ days (too difficult to discreet smuggle) but if you stay in Africa/Europe then hop on a jet last minute you'll be good to go and probably piss clean like usual if you've taken the usual and necessary precautions.
Obiri, Jepchirchir, and Kosgei aren't even their fastest runners the past year and a half. The runners with the best average of 2 marathons is Wanjiru, Chepnegitich, and Jepkosgei. Ya Obiri won a few races, but she wasn't racing any of the real studs who could run 2:16 or faster. Assuming Siffan Hassan runs the marathon I'm going to say Kenya women don't win a medal, it'll be Hassan and two of the Ethiopians.
Can't complain about the men's picks. Kipruto has the fastest time and has another 2:04:02 to back it up. Mutiso just won London and has a 2:03:11 to go with it from December. Kipchoge has the 2nd fastest time in the window and that's about it, but he has earned it with other previous performances to have another shot to win gold. Surely the Kenyan men will have at least one guy on the podium, probably two.
Continue dreaming. Boston had Ethiopian ladies who had fast pbs than Obiri. Did they win? You know that a combination of Obiri and Peres are lethal. You can bark all the way you want but Obiri and Peres are in the team and their being there is paining you. Let me tell you unless you're not aware: marathon is not about who has faster pbs or who's run many marathons or not. It's about team work and good preparations . Paris marathon is hilly and Obiri and Peres are well acquainted with such from Boston and New York . We shall see in August who has the last laugh
Agreed. The decline of Kipchoge has been greatly overstated (or it has accelerated dramatically since September).
Here are his marathons since the start of 2022:
March 2022: 1st Tokyo (2:02:40 CR) September 2022: 1st Berlin (2:01:09 WR) April 2023: 6th Boston (2:09:23) September 2023: 1st Berlin (2:02:42) March 2024: 10th Tokyo (2:06:50)
That's...pretty good. Even if you just consider the past year, only Kiptum, Bekele, Lemma, and Kipchoge himself have ever run faster than his 2023 Berlin time. If it weren't for Kiptum (RIP) or Kipchoge's own past performances, he would have just set a Kenyan record 10+ months out from Paris.
So while the cracks in his armor have been growing, putting Kipchoge on the team is decidedly NOT a crazy thing to do, even from the standpoint of recent performance.
All that said, I'm not convinced that this is the actual list until I see a link.
Who would you have taken instead? Timothy Kiplagat was better in Tokyo, but if you look at 2023, I'd take a 6th in Boston and 1st in Berlin over 13th in Budapest and 2nd in Rotterdam.
A year ago, Chebet would have made a strong case. Or if he had won in Boston, but 3rd place for his only marathon in the past year isn't enough.
If Kiptum was alive, it'd be hard to argue Kipchoge deserved it over Mutiso. But given who is available, it makes sense to me.
Agreed. The decline of Kipchoge has been greatly overstated (or it has accelerated dramatically since September).
Here are his marathons since the start of 2022:
March 2022: 1st Tokyo (2:02:40 CR) September 2022: 1st Berlin (2:01:09 WR) April 2023: 6th Boston (2:09:23) September 2023: 1st Berlin (2:02:42) March 2024: 10th Tokyo (2:06:50)
That's...pretty good. Even if you just consider the past year, only Kiptum, Bekele, Lemma, and Kipchoge himself have ever run faster than his 2023 Berlin time. If it weren't for Kiptum (RIP) or Kipchoge's own past performances, he would have just set a Kenyan record 10+ months out from Paris.
So while the cracks in his armor have been growing, putting Kipchoge on the team is decidedly NOT a crazy thing to do, even from the standpoint of recent performance.
All that said, I'm not convinced that this is the actual list until I see a link.
Here is another link.
Eliud Kipchoge speaks after being named into 2024 Paris Olympics marathon team (youtube.com)
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
Obiri, Jepchirchir, and Kosgei aren't even their fastest runners the past year and a half. The runners with the best average of 2 marathons is Wanjiru, Chepnegitich, and Jepkosgei. Ya Obiri won a few races, but she wasn't racing any of the real studs who could run 2:16 or faster. Assuming Siffan Hassan runs the marathon I'm going to say Kenya women don't win a medal, it'll be Hassan and two of the Ethiopians.
Can't complain about the men's picks. Kipruto has the fastest time and has another 2:04:02 to back it up. Mutiso just won London and has a 2:03:11 to go with it from December. Kipchoge has the 2nd fastest time in the window and that's about it, but he has earned it with other previous performances to have another shot to win gold. Surely the Kenyan men will have at least one guy on the podium, probably two.
Not sure why so many downvotes, probably because of the Obiri comments and the positive opinion of her training in the US and running the US majors. But the fact remains that she has only run 2:21, 2:27, and 2:22 in her last three marathons, and those last three marathons weren't stacked with 2:18 and faster women. I don't care if she closed the last few miles fast, she needs to be 2:16 or faster fitness to win a medal and she hasn't showed that at all.
This Brigid Kosgei choice is akin to that of WEsley Korir in London.
They bangled it up perhaps because they didn't want to put Geoffrey Mutai and we ended up with Emmanuel.
I truly hope Kosgei doesn't make it and they bring in Sharon.
This is a total waste.
They should have brought in Jepkosgei instead.
I agree that Sharon Lokedi or Janeth Jepkosgei would be the better choice. I still think Kosgei has medal prospects. She'd probably be best letting the Ethiopians do the early pacing, and wear themselves out. I wouldn't trust Chepngetich to have the discipline to do that, so she's at least the better pick than her. Last 5-6 miles it's gotta be her, Obiri and Jepchirchir taking on the business end. Hassan can be dropped, and Assefa is inexperienced. Beriso is very solid, but is beatable by all 3 here. I'd feel most confident with Jepkosgei, too. Lokedi you can't really argue with her results, but I wonder if Paris is a little more honest/hot, will she fare as well?
Obiri, Jepchirchir, and Kosgei aren't even their fastest runners the past year and a half. The runners with the best average of 2 marathons is Wanjiru, Chepnegitich, and Jepkosgei. Ya Obiri won a few races, but she wasn't racing any of the real studs who could run 2:16 or faster. Assuming Siffan Hassan runs the marathon I'm going to say Kenya women don't win a medal, it'll be Hassan and two of the Ethiopians.
Can't complain about the men's picks. Kipruto has the fastest time and has another 2:04:02 to back it up. Mutiso just won London and has a 2:03:11 to go with it from December. Kipchoge has the 2nd fastest time in the window and that's about it, but he has earned it with other previous performances to have another shot to win gold. Surely the Kenyan men will have at least one guy on the podium, probably two.
Not sure why so many downvotes, probably because of the Obiri comments and the positive opinion of her training in the US and running the US majors. But the fact remains that she has only run 2:21, 2:27, and 2:22 in her last three marathons, and those last three marathons weren't stacked with 2:18 and faster women. I don't care if she closed the last few miles fast, she needs to be 2:16 or faster fitness to win a medal and she hasn't showed that at all.
In Boston 2023 Obiri outkicked Beriso, a 2:14 woman. In NYC 2023 she outkicked Gidey, a 2:16 woman. Obiri seems to be doing just fine against women with faster PBs.
