You are free to dream to whatever your heart desire.
But don't trash others and make yourself a clean king.
Not at all -I really like some of the Africans. F.ex Kejelcha would be a specially deserved winner ( 5 or 10k) IMO. (Because I think he has had some bad luck -but he got the silver in Doha!). Saying that, I of course root for my little home area.
You seem to be well informed and right in your reasoning about the Half (I wondered myself why Kandie didn’t do better than 59 low in that race). And I really like that you are so up to date when it comes to African runners. They have really deserved this..!
If we were discussing two other athletes with similar pb’s to Nordås and Almgren I would have agreed with your reasoning. But these two are so inconsistent and unpredictable and somewhat outliers that a 5000m estimate is really really difficult. -Fortunately; because that makes the whole thing exciting…
If the 5000m had been the first event in Budapest, and it had been cooler (may be so in Paris), I wouldn’t been surprised if Nordås had been up there with Jakob and Katir… And it may sound weird, but I wouldn’t rule out that the guy who hasn’t run a good 5000m in his life is more talented there than in the 1500m..! (Historically he has (pre 2023) been best in the 3000m, even if one can’t confirm this from his times (I have seen some of these, with blistering last laps). But the guy has to find out how “to be a friend with the distance” -If things had loosened up in 2023 I wouldn’t be surprised if he was sub 12.50 even then. And now -who knows..?
Almgren has run 13.01. So yes, your estimates here might be sound. -I know it’s a long time since he set his pb’s in the 4/800m (and under a different training regime) but one wonder what a not too tired, fast guy, can do with 300m left to run…
Yeah I won't rule anything out as Luis Grijalva has been a whisker from two 5,000m medals including one where Katir was one of the 3 ahead of him. We obviously are on the same page that Jakob is likely for a medal (and probably gold). So then the question becomes where do Nordas and Almgren fall. The answer is there is are quite a few bodies in between them and a medal.
Yomif Kejlecha — has botched his tactics, but is a high level of fitness better Hagos Gebrhiwet — similar to Kejelcha Telahun Haile Bekele/Grant Fisher — not the greatest finishers, but tough in a fast race I will assume Aregawi is 10,000 only. Jacob Krop — Even in an off year for him, medaled last year, has a great kick Nicholas Kipkorir — Ran 4th at World XC, which was his best performance since 2022 when he was quite good Jacob Kiplimo/Joshua Cheptegei/Selemon Barega — Maybe 10,000 only, but dangerous if not Luis Grijalva — I have no reason to believe his kick would not beat Nordas/Almgren, based on his great track record
So, as you can see there are lot of runners to beat with greater credentials/PBs at 5,000 before you talk about a sweep. This isn't even getting into guys like George Mills, Nico Young, Benson Kiplangat etc. who are up-and-coming as 5,000m runners.
Almgren lost to Nico Young in the Ten. Why shouldn’t we consider Nico just as big of a threat if not more so than Almgren considering his PBs are faster at both 5k and 10k?
May of course be a little too fantastic, but Jakob might be back, and Nordås are saying his aerobic capacity is extremely extremely better than last year, and Almgren has now the strength (sub 27 and was only one sec behind Kandie in the half -Barega, Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha f.ex not that close) and he has the speed resources -48.33 as a 16 years old…
1500m: Jakob + Nordås. -The latter ran 3.29 twice last year, and had the fastest last lap both times. Maybe his aerobic improvement has given him a lift in the 1500m as well..?
I agree with others on this thread that Nordaas is very unlikely to medal in the 5000m.
He has always been far behind Jakob, see this video from 2017 where Jakob at age 16 wins the Norwegian senior Champs in the 5000m.
Nordaas at age 18 is lapped by Jakob when Jakob is 150m out.
I have difficulty to believe that Nordaas should be anywhere near Jakob in the 5000m even though he came close in the 1500m last year in Budapest.
Almgren might have an outsider chance similar to when Oscar Chelimo took bronze in Eugene 2022 without even having broken 13.
In the 1500m Nordaas at least on paper should be one of the favorites but there are many contenders and he must run much smarter than in Glasgow where he honestly "ran with his head under the arm" (do you have the same saying in Norway, CuriousDude?)
Yeah I won't rule anything out as Luis Grijalva has been a whisker from two 5,000m medals including one where Katir was one of the 3 ahead of him. We obviously are on the same page that Jakob is likely for a medal (and probably gold). So then the question becomes where do Nordas and Almgren fall. The answer is there is are quite a few bodies in between them and a medal.
Yomif Kejlecha — has botched his tactics, but is a high level of fitness better Hagos Gebrhiwet — similar to Kejelcha Telahun Haile Bekele/Grant Fisher — not the greatest finishers, but tough in a fast race I will assume Aregawi is 10,000 only. Jacob Krop — Even in an off year for him, medaled last year, has a great kick Nicholas Kipkorir — Ran 4th at World XC, which was his best performance since 2022 when he was quite good Jacob Kiplimo/Joshua Cheptegei/Selemon Barega — Maybe 10,000 only, but dangerous if not Luis Grijalva — I have no reason to believe his kick would not beat Nordas/Almgren, based on his great track record
So, as you can see there are lot of runners to beat with greater credentials/PBs at 5,000 before you talk about a sweep. This isn't even getting into guys like George Mills, Nico Young, Benson Kiplangat etc. who are up-and-coming as 5,000m runners.
I do agree with you in all this, and I wouldn’t at all bet my house on Nordås / Almgren. But I just had to say there are a lot of possibilities. And who saw in advance Grijalva making top 4 twice..? And of course Fisher might be overdue for a medal. But the competition is crazy tough. I’m pretty much only fooling around with some unmentioned possibilities…
Almgren lost to Nico Young in the Ten. Why shouldn’t we consider Nico just as big of a threat if not more so than Almgren considering his PBs are faster at both 5k and 10k?
I think Almgren is better than his own noted 5k pb -he fell in a race on his way to sub 13. And he seems to be in progress. But your reasoning here is of course without flaws…
Nordaas at age 18 is lapped by Jakob when Jakob is 150m out.
I have difficulty to believe that Nordaas should be anywhere near Jakob in the 5000m even though he came close in the 1500m last year in Budapest.
Almgren might have an outsider chance similar to when Oscar Chelimo took bronze in Eugene 2022 without even having broken 13.
In the 1500m Nordaas at least on paper should be one of the favorites but there are many contenders and he must run much smarter than in Glasgow where he honestly "ran with his head under the arm" (do you have the same saying in Norway, CuriousDude?)
Yes, it is “løp med hodet under armen”.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Nordaas at age 18 is lapped by Jakob when Jakob is 150m out.
I have difficulty to believe that Nordaas should be anywhere near Jakob in the 5000m even though he came close in the 1500m last year in Budapest.
Almgren might have an outsider chance similar to when Oscar Chelimo took bronze in Eugene 2022 without even having broken 13.
In the 1500m Nordaas at least on paper should be one of the favorites but there are many contenders and he must run much smarter than in Glasgow where he honestly "ran with his head under the arm" (do you have the same saying in Norway, CuriousDude?)
Yes, but as late as 2019 Nordås was 19.5 sec slower than Jakob in the 1500m, and in Budapest only 4 hundreds of a second! Makes Narve an interesting guy for the future…!
Nordaas at age 18 is lapped by Jakob when Jakob is 150m out.
I have difficulty to believe that Nordaas should be anywhere near Jakob in the 5000m even though he came close in the 1500m last year in Budapest.
Almgren might have an outsider chance similar to when Oscar Chelimo took bronze in Eugene 2022 without even having broken 13.
In the 1500m Nordaas at least on paper should be one of the favorites but there are many contenders and he must run much smarter than in Glasgow where he honestly "ran with his head under the arm" (do you have the same saying in Norway, CuriousDude?)
You have of course a point here -Nordås is 2 years older than Jakob and has here an all out 5000m on a time that is exactly 2 minutes behind Jakob’s current pb. But the thing is that he is probably around 20 seconds also behind in the 1500m. -That’s about 66 seconds in a 5000m. And in this 2017 race he was 73 sec behind. This tells us that he just was a much overall poorer runner than Jakob -pretty much the same in the 5000m as in the 1500m. So if Nordås improves as much in the 5k as in the 1500m he should be very much up there together with Jakob in the 5000m as well. And given your belief in huge mileage double threshold training (that Nordås really does) this guy should be dangerous to anybody!
You have of course a point here -Nordås is 2 years older than Jakob and has here an all out 5000m on a time that is exactly 2 minutes behind Jakob’s current pb. But the thing is that he is probably around 20 seconds also behind in the 1500m. -That’s about 66 seconds in a 5000m. And in this 2017 race he was 73 sec behind. This tells us that he just was a much overall poorer runner than Jakob -pretty much the same in the 5000m as in the 1500m. So if Nordås improves as much in the 5k as in the 1500m he should be very much up there together with Jakob in the 5000m as well. And given your belief in huge mileage double threshold training (that Nordås really does) this guy should be dangerous to anybody!
If I take the 2019 pb’s there is a 19.5 sec difference in the 1500m (3.30.16 vs 3.49.64) and 66 sec in the 5000m (13.02.03 vs 14.08.69): Pretty much the same, adjusted for distance. No reason Nordås should be any worse now (with the same start point / over all progression) in the 5000m than in the 1500m according to these numbers…
Almgren lost to Nico Young in the Ten. Why shouldn’t we consider Nico just as big of a threat if not more so than Almgren considering his PBs are faster at both 5k and 10k?
You’ve got a point here. But Almgren being a 1.45 / 48.33 man (although a long time ago) could make a difference in a slow race…
Nordas says a lot of things. His Budapest 5000 was pathetic. I'll be surprised to see him in the top 5.
I think it’s too easy to be one dimensional when it comes to this yapping thing: Nordås f.ex is quite silent around his chances in the 5000m (despite talking about himself as a gold contender in the 1500m). And Kerr f.ex has a big mouth, but after his 2 mile Indoor WR he has chosen to let the time speak for itself. Only Jakob is shameless outspoken (which I by the way kind of like).
Surprised to see him in the top 5? -Sure, but who wouldn’t be surprised of his 3.29 and bronze pre 2023..!?