Can't assume the runners Rojo thinks should be on the team would want to be on the team because it likely means giving up a fall marathon payday. Also, going by fall/spring marathon results can be misleading because athletics is a summer sport. The Olympics are in August. Not every marathoner runs well in summer heat. Kipchoge does, that's proven. The others, not so much.
Going off the last 2 years, World Athletics ranks Kipchoge is currently still the #1 in the world after Kiptum. Yes, it's probably safe to say that he's declining now, but since early 2022, he has these 5 results: 2:02:40 for 1st in Tokyo 2022, 2:01:09 for 1st in Berlin 2022, 2:09:23 for 6th in Boston 2023, 2:02:42 for 1st in Berlin 2023, and 2:06:50 for 10th in Tokyo 2024.
He's clearly on the decline, yes, but let's break down all the other 8 athletes still in contention for a spot. Kipchoge is arguably still a better marathoner than these 7 by any reasonable metric other than their performance in their single most recent marathon: 1. Cyprian Kotut (1st at Hamburg 2022 in 2:04:47, 6th at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:05:15, 2nd at Amsterdam 2023 in 2:04:34). Hasn't ever finished a major (DNF London 2014), hasn't broken 2:04:30, and has been marathoning for a decade+, so it's unlikely he's going to have a sudden breakout at this point.
2. Amos Kipruto (2nd at Tokyo 2022 in 2:03:13, 1st at London 2022 in 2:04:39, DNF at London 2023, 7th at Berlin 2023 in 2:04:49). Has fast times, but his best is several minutes slower than Kipchoge's best, his best ever is still slower than 3 of Kipchoge's last 5, has 2 relatively poor showings in the last 4 starts, and hasn't run a great marathon since 2022.
3. Titus Kipruto (1st at Milan 2022 in 2:05:05, 19th at Eldoret City 2022 in 2:18:13 -- yes a week later and at altitude, 2nd at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:04:54, 4th at Tokyo 2023 in 2:05:32, 8th at World Champs 2023 in 2:10:47, 20th at Valencia 2023 in 2:07:22) Has barely broken 2:05, well off the podium in a championship marathon, and half of his showings in the last 2 years are rather poor for someone looking for an Olympic spot.
4. Geoffrey Kamworor (18th at Boston 2022 in 2:11:49, 5th at World Champs 2022 in 2:07:14, 2nd at London 2023 in 2:04:23) Hasn't really shown up to what we'd expect from him in the marathon. Quite poor showing at Boston, didn't quite put it together at World Champs, and one good showing at London for 2nd. Hasn't broken 2:04.
5. Bernard Kiprop Koech (4th at Chicago 2022 in 2:07:15, 1st in Hamburg 2023 in 2:04:09). Has been in marathoning for 11 years and still hasn't broken 2:04. Doesn't really have a single major standout performance.
6. Vincent Kipkemoi Ng'etich (only 2 marathons ever with 2nd behind Kipchoge at Berlin 2023 in 2:03:13, and 3rd at Tokyo 2024 ahead of Kipchoge in 2:04:18). This 6th one is the one that could be argued to potentially have better odds to perform better, but he's still quite unproven.
7. Timothy Kiplagat (7th at Barcelona 2022 in 2:07:23, 1st at Melbourne 2022 in 2:09:12, 1st at Abu Dhabi 2022 in 2:05:20, 2nd at Rotterdam 2023 in 2:03:50, 13th at World Champs 2023 in 2:11:25, 2nd at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:55). Yes, Kiplagat is coming off a big breakthrough, but 2/3 of his recent times are over 2:05, 1/2 are over 2:07, and he blew it in World Champs. On a good day for him and a moderate day for Kipchoge, he might beat Kipchoge, but odds have to be in Kipchoge's favor.
All that remains is 1:
1. Benson Kipruto (3rd at Boston 2022 in 2:07:27, 1st at Chicago 2022 in 2:04:24, 3rd at Boston 2023 in 2:06:06, 2nd at Chicago 2023 in 2:04:02, 1st at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:16). It's not really possible to argue that Kipchoge is better than Benson Kipruto at this point. Two 1sts, one 2nd, and two 3rds in 5 majors with a 2:02 low and <2:04:30 in all 3 races that aren't Boston is very strong. He's the top pick at this point by any standard.
All of this said, Kipchoge is my 2nd pick based on merit alone in the last 2 years. If Evans Chebet were on the list, he would unquestionably rank higher than Kipchoge for me, but he's not on the list, and even with him there, Kipchoge would still be the 3rd highest pick.
Once could argue that winning Berlin was enough regardless of his legend status. But he also has major advantages over his teammates.
1) He is consistent. We got used to him winning every marathon like clockwork which is otherwise unheard of, but having a great race just 50% of the time in the marathon is still impressive at the elite level.
Did you read my article? The other 3 guys I mentioned are all EXTREMELY consistent themselves. In fact, they are more consistent than Kipchoge of late. But no one has appreciated the greatness of Evans Chebet who has finished in the top 4 of 15 straight marathons and first or second in 12 of them. He's won Boston (twice) and NY (once) in his last 3.
Once could argue that winning Berlin was enough regardless of his legend status. But he also has major advantages over his teammates.
1) He is consistent. We got used to him winning every marathon like clockwork which is otherwise unheard of, but having a great race just 50% of the time in the marathon is still impressive at the elite level.
Did you read my article? The other 3 guys I mentioned are all EXTREMELY consistent themselves. In fact, they are more consistent than Kipchoge of late. But no one has appreciated the greatness of Evans Chebet who has finished in the top 4 of 15 straight marathons and first or second in 12 of them. He's won Boston (twice) and NY (once) in his last 3.
I don't get how this is even a point of discussion. 2 of the 3 people you think should go aren't even in contention to be on the team according to Athletics Kenya. Do you just not keep up with the news or do you prefer to live in hypotheticals that are not a real-life possibility?
Going off the last 2 years, World Athletics ranks Kipchoge is currently still the #1 in the world after Kiptum. Yes, it's probably safe to say that he's declining now, but since early 2022, he has these 5 results: 2:02:40 for 1st in Tokyo 2022, 2:01:09 for 1st in Berlin 2022, 2:09:23 for 6th in Boston 2023, 2:02:42 for 1st in Berlin 2023, and 2:06:50 for 10th in Tokyo 2024.
He's clearly on the decline, yes, but let's break down all the other 8 athletes still in contention for a spot. Kipchoge is arguably still a better marathoner than these 7 by any reasonable metric other than their performance in their single most recent marathon: 1. Cyprian Kotut (1st at Hamburg 2022 in 2:04:47, 6th at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:05:15, 2nd at Amsterdam 2023 in 2:04:34). Hasn't ever finished a major (DNF London 2014), hasn't broken 2:04:30, and has been marathoning for a decade+, so it's unlikely he's going to have a sudden breakout at this point.
2. Amos Kipruto (2nd at Tokyo 2022 in 2:03:13, 1st at London 2022 in 2:04:39, DNF at London 2023, 7th at Berlin 2023 in 2:04:49). Has fast times, but his best is several minutes slower than Kipchoge's best, his best ever is still slower than 3 of Kipchoge's last 5, has 2 relatively poor showings in the last 4 starts, and hasn't run a great marathon since 2022.
3. Titus Kipruto (1st at Milan 2022 in 2:05:05, 19th at Eldoret City 2022 in 2:18:13 -- yes a week later and at altitude, 2nd at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:04:54, 4th at Tokyo 2023 in 2:05:32, 8th at World Champs 2023 in 2:10:47, 20th at Valencia 2023 in 2:07:22) Has barely broken 2:05, well off the podium in a championship marathon, and half of his showings in the last 2 years are rather poor for someone looking for an Olympic spot.
4. Geoffrey Kamworor (18th at Boston 2022 in 2:11:49, 5th at World Champs 2022 in 2:07:14, 2nd at London 2023 in 2:04:23) Hasn't really shown up to what we'd expect from him in the marathon. Quite poor showing at Boston, didn't quite put it together at World Champs, and one good showing at London for 2nd. Hasn't broken 2:04.
5. Bernard Kiprop Koech (4th at Chicago 2022 in 2:07:15, 1st in Hamburg 2023 in 2:04:09). Has been in marathoning for 11 years and still hasn't broken 2:04. Doesn't really have a single major standout performance.
6. Vincent Kipkemoi Ng'etich (only 2 marathons ever with 2nd behind Kipchoge at Berlin 2023 in 2:03:13, and 3rd at Tokyo 2024 ahead of Kipchoge in 2:04:18). This 6th one is the one that could be argued to potentially have better odds to perform better, but he's still quite unproven.
7. Timothy Kiplagat (7th at Barcelona 2022 in 2:07:23, 1st at Melbourne 2022 in 2:09:12, 1st at Abu Dhabi 2022 in 2:05:20, 2nd at Rotterdam 2023 in 2:03:50, 13th at World Champs 2023 in 2:11:25, 2nd at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:55). Yes, Kiplagat is coming off a big breakthrough, but 2/3 of his recent times are over 2:05, 1/2 are over 2:07, and he blew it in World Champs. On a good day for him and a moderate day for Kipchoge, he might beat Kipchoge, but odds have to be in Kipchoge's favor.
All that remains is 1:
1. Benson Kipruto (3rd at Boston 2022 in 2:07:27, 1st at Chicago 2022 in 2:04:24, 3rd at Boston 2023 in 2:06:06, 2nd at Chicago 2023 in 2:04:02, 1st at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:16). It's not really possible to argue that Kipchoge is better than Benson Kipruto at this point. Two 1sts, one 2nd, and two 3rds in 5 majors with a 2:02 low and <2:04:30 in all 3 races that aren't Boston is very strong. He's the top pick at this point by any standard.
All of this said, Kipchoge is my 2nd pick based on merit alone in the last 2 years. If Evans Chebet were on the list, he would unquestionably rank higher than Kipchoge for me, but he's not on the list, and even with him there, Kipchoge would still be the 3rd highest pick.
It's absolutely amazing. I write hundreds of words and you don't even read. 2 people who will have a better claim to an Olympic spot than Kipchoge aren't even on that list. Alexander Mutiso and Evans Chebet. They aren't on the list as it came out before Valencia (Mutiso) and because Chebet didn't run a fall marathon so he didn't have a Road To Paris ranking and their list was simply the top 10 people on the road to paris ranking.
If Chebet wins Boston, they'd be IDIOTIC to leave off a guy who has won Boston, NY, Boston and Boston in his last 4 marathon. 4 straight majors? And if Mutiso goes 2nd in Valencia and 1st in London - then he's hard to top.
Better question: CAN SOMEONE TELL WHERE IS TIRUNESH DIBABA? The last time she was supposed to run was at the ABU DHABI MARATHON 2024 which she didn't.... She preggies again? Injured?
The prospect of a 3rd Olympic gold would mean Kipchoge would be spoken about for 100 years.
The pressure from sponsors.
The pressure from the general public.
The pressure from Kipchoge himself,
The pressure from the Kenyan Government will all be too great for athletics Kenya to ignore and they will pick him.
It may even prove to be the correct call, we will find out in Paris but i think Chebet, the 2 kenyans in London and whoever is running rotterdam will know it and perform above themselves. Then one or two of them, most likely Evans Chebet, will get absolutely shafted by the Kenyan athletics federation.
This post was edited 26 seconds after it was posted.
No, because doing so creates the possibility that he might finally get busted. Kipchoge being busted, especially at the Olympics, would absolutely be the final nail in the coffin of Kenyan credibility.
Although you could argue he is not currently in Kenya's top 3, I think he deserves to be given the opportunity to go for an unprecedented 3rd Olympic gold. Even if he massively underperforms at the Olympics, people want to see him at least try. Imagine the outrage if he is left off the team, but then dominates his fall marathon. We would always be left wondering "what if?".
No. He's not the runner he used to be and the Paris course does not favor him.
But, I fully expect Kenya to pull a New York Jets move and add an aging athlete showing signs of decline to the roster and then having that blow up in their face.
- in the 4 years since the last Olympics he has run 2:01:09 for the (then) world record, and has comfortably run under the Olympic record 3 times and at Tokyo ran within 15 seconds of it and that was a bad race for him. Imagine your bad marathon being 2:06…
- He also just ran 2:02 in Berlin recently…
- He only races 2 times a year so he’s not over racing and he has plenty of time to commit fully to the Olympics. He also has plenty of time to work hills between now and race day and since he failed in Boston him and his coaches likely know what is going to work this time around and what’s not going to work in that field.
- He has the best support and coaching of any athlete in Kenya, that’s a serious advantage with him on the team that the other 2 can tap into
- The Olympics is a slow, tactical race. As long as he’s in sub 2:04 shape (shouldn’t be an issue with him still even if he’s not in younger peak shape) he has a serious chance at winning. We have consistently seen many athletes with these epic PRs and NRs get creamed on Olympic race day. Even fellow Kenyans struggle despite having good numbers and PRs.
- He knows how to race tactically and he knows his body. His strategy will likely be the same as the Tokyo Olympics, go out nice and slow, everyone starts to overcook and fade, run steady from 30K to finish line = victory.
You cant just look at numbers, if you want to do a committee selection you have to look at the whole picture. Kipchoge being on the team is the best option. He knows this event and knows what to do come race day. He’s not going out at 60:20 pace, he’s not looking to crank out a sub 2, he’s just looking for a gold metal and will be strategic about it. It’s the best option for Kenya and Kipchoge. Also leaving him off means he won’t get an unprecedented 3 peat and sponsors/the running public/citizens of Kenya would be pissed
But also, does Eliud want to be on Kenyan team? Maybe for him best scenario is not to be selected and play that argument; and save the legacy by not loosing in Paris?
If I were athletics Kenya I'd set up a marathon and select the first 3 that finish and have the standard. I would never dream of doing it via selection.
In the past 24 months he has 3 of the 4 fastest times run by a Kenyan who is alive today. Including the fastest two. He ran a 2:02:42 less than 6 months ago which that performance alone makes him the second fastest Kenyan in the past year. So even if you forget the fact that he has won the past two olympic gold medals, he deserves to go no matter how you look at it.
CHEBET IS ALREADY OUT OF DISCUSSION TO MAKE THE TEAM. MUTISO IS ALREADY OUT OF DISCUSSION TO MAKE THE TEAM. THEY ARE NOT PART OF THE DISCUSSION. GOD, YOU'RE DENSE.
Regardless, you'd have to be an absolute idiot to think that a guy that hasn't broken 2:03 and that has run only the following (1st at Prague in 2:05, 2nd at Valencia, and 3rd at Valencia) in the last 2 years is better fit for the team than a guy who's run a 2:01 and 2 2:02s and taken down 3 majors in that time.