Early 2024 NY Cross Country predictions?

East Aurora*

Tier 1:
Monroe-Woodbury, Saratoga, Ithaca

Tier 2:
North Rockland, Auburn, Xavier (will have many seniors but this team usually doesn’t do as well as the returning group suggests)
North Rockland and Auburn each have a strong top 3 and can probably move up to Tier 1 if their 4th and 5th runners step up.
Brooklyn Technical and Bronx HS of Science can probably be Tier 2 based on track times, but the question is, will those times translate to cross country.

Auburn’s 4th and 5th fastest nonseniors both went sub-5 here. Good progress for them and they will be a solid team again with the top 5 they return, but right now, I wouldn’t say they are in the position to return to NXN yet, as there’s going to be a big gap between #3 and #4. Auburn returns their top 3, but there are lots of teams in the state with a solid top 3. There’s still work to be done for the 4th and 5th guys, and those track times will need to translate to XC. It would help if they find a 6th and 7th runner too, but if they don’t, all of their top 5 will need to deliver when it matters.

ny.milesplit.com

F-M, Auburn @ Baldwinsville Dual 2024 - Complete (Raw)

MileSplits official Complete raw results for the 2024 F-M, Auburn @ Baldwinsville Dual, hosted by Leone Timing in Baldwinsville NY.

Link:ny.milesplit.com/meets/614854-f-m-aubu...

Not very surprising that Auburn qualified for NXN though. They graduated nobody from the 2022 team and they weren’t very far behind Fairport at NXR that year.

That is true. The surprising part is that they qualified despite having lousy seasons from their top two returning runners.

Any thoughts on the smaller classes for the boys side?

Does Burnt Hills win streak finally end in class B? Will they even get past Queensbury at sectionals?

Is East Aurora a lock in class C or can Brownsville challenge them?

Pine Plains returns a good top 2 in class D, so they have enough at the 3-5 to repeat or will another team step up?

Burnt Hills is losing many key seniors and don’t return much depth, so they won’t win Class B this year.
Manhasset took 2nd last year (and by only 12 points) and only lose 1 of their top 6 so they will probably finish 1 spot higher.
Burnt Hills has some freshmen who stepped up and will probably make the team strong again when those guys are juniors and seniors. But in fall 2024, not so much.

Queensbury really nose-dived as a program 10-12 years ago on both the boys' and girls' sides. They've had the occasional good runner but nowhere near the depth of talent they used to get. BH will take a step back this Fall, but will probably still have enough to be running at States.

Burnt Hills returns these 1600 times

4:38 / 10:18 (9)

4:50 / 10:20 (9)

4:53 (9)

4:59 / 10:09 (10)

5:02 (9)

Looks like this fall’s team will consist of mostly sophomores

This was the case back in 2016

Tbf that 2016 team was full of stars who were already good runners as freshmen and elite on the state level as sophomores. I mean just look at their college times, 3:50/8:00/14:00 across the board (and for some, better).

Yeah in 2016 they took 7th at the NXR championship race.

In 2024 they likely won’t get in the championship race

North Rockland has a good set up for 2024, even better for 2025
10 - Tuohy - 4:21
10 - Chery - 4:23
9 - McCarron - 9:57
11 - Piccone - 4:30
10 - Piccone - 4:37
11 - Affoumani - 4:38
9 - Perez Nieves - 4:52 / 17:57 at XC sections, scoring for the team.

Saratoga returns these 3200 times

9:09

9:14

9:16

9:59

10:00

10:13 (on December 27, and a freshman!)

I think their top 3 is as good as any other team in the state. #4-6 are pretty solid too

Corning will be a team to watch out for. This program has lots of history of success.
Mahoney - 9:56
Ferratella - 9:59
Warner - 10:06 (soccer player. not sure if he will switch to XC)
Boutwell - 10:09
Homa - 10:18 / 4:38
Hammond - 10:28 / 4:44

Boutwell has been injured this season. Ran 9:51 last year as a frosh and had a few races in the 170s this fall. Homa ran 9:55 last year as a soph, has been mediocre this year but his older brother followed a very similar progression and improved massively as a senior to run 4:22/9:24. Mahoney in a similar position, 9:43 as a soph and been disappointing this year. Less sure about him, seems like he may be more of an 800 guy at heart.

It all depends on Warner I think. That was their downfall this season, Warner chose to stay with soccer and while Cornfield/Boutwell were good, their depth was nonexistent and they couldn't even beat Ithaca. Now Warner is well behind the curve because he likely didn't train for 6 months. If he does soccer again I think Corning will be on the outside looking in, but like Cornfield this year, I expect Boutwell will factor in on the individual side and at least be a 180s runner in the fall.

Early XC 2024 schedule