(hi - I wrote a novel)
Orange Soda - Welcome! With regard to your marathon - I think you have sufficient speed and strength to run 2:45, but I'm a bit cautious about going for it this time around. First marathons are always a trip into the unknown, and IME they tend to be more challenging for people with good speed, as they don't comprehend just how "not straining" marathon effort needs to be. And the hills just compound this (the placement of the hills is also a factor - early? late? Gentle rolling hills that flatten out is a much easier course than downhill for the first 16 before hitting the climbs late in the race).
Also, one thing I don't see from your workouts is what the days before looked like. Running workouts the day after an easy and short run is very different then running them on tired legs. When marathon training, I like to do my long runs the day after running 10-12 miles at easy pace so that my legs already have some fatigue baked in (and then take the day AFTER the long run very easy, to absorb the gains)
I agree with everyone else that doing some marathon pace/marathon effort (I run by feel, not pace, hence the difference in terms) would be very helpful. I will caution that if you run 5-6 miles at "marathon pace" and then have to stop, put your hands on your knees, and catch your breath -- that was NOT marathon pace. It definitely needs to be more controlled than that.
FWIW, I personally think that any first time marathoner should start their race targeting a time 5-10 minutes slower than what they think they can run, based on their training. Then, if they get to 20 and feel good - pick it up. You can run a REALLY good first marathon this way - it won't be the absolute fastest you could run, but it's really hard to get a marathon just right - and harder yet for a first time marathoner.
beers and miles - you have been on quite the weather roller coaster. Hope things have smoothed out. And yes, the Adios Pro 3 upper is awful. Adidas has truly lost their way with the uppers, sadly.
Working Harder - hope you got to go skiing!
Thoughtsleader - great job! I am so sad that they did away with the old course that finished near Wall Street. I know the new course is rough.
Coach Jeff - awesome job on the 5K. I am really proud of you, and happy for you as well!
Gordon Tremesko - great job on the half! Oh so close!
Runner Sam - you asked about goals....yup, I turn 50 in early May (after Broad Street, unfortunately) and I am really looking forward to that jump up in age groups. Age group competition sucks when your age ends in a 9, especially when it's 10 year groups (there's been a few times in the past year that I just missed an age group award, but would have won the 50-54 or 50-59). But of course, everybody takes their turn at the top and the bottom of the age group.
BTW, this is probably also the best time to let you guys know that I have an additional group to compete in that I'm oddly excited about. Admittedly it's a bad news/good news thing. Essentially, a bit over a year ago I learned that my "Runner's Dystonia" was actually young onset Parkinson's disease, and so I've been learning how to manage that and run with it ever since.
[BTW, PD is progressive, but very slowly progressive, and the best thing for it is LOTS of exercise. It's also not something that shortens one's life expectancy at this point, due to all the advances in treatment over the past 20 years. So it's not a great situation, but things could also be MUCH worse. It's also pretty nice to have a doctor who wants you to run and workout as much as possible.]
So that's the bad news. The good news is that now I'm eligible to be classified as a para-athlete, and hopefully that will happen in Boston a few days before the marathon. If and when I get classified, then my entry will be moved into the "para-athlete" division at Boston - complete with separate start and substantial prize money for the top 3 finishers. Which I'm really excited about.
So that's my other competitive goal - be really competitive in the Women's T35-38 division when and where it's offered (again, if I get classified, since nothing is ever certain). (And no, the Paralympics are not an option, because they don't offer anything longer than 400m for women's T-35-38.)
I'm also trying to get back to over 80% age graded. A few years ago when I was running well, I was anywhere between 83-87% age graded, depending on distance. Now I'm around 76-78%. But I keep thinking that 80% is not that far away, and I think I can get there with some focused work.