The NBA rookie of the year is usually one of the top 20 players each season.
The NBA rookie of the year is usually one of the top 20 players each season.
you're not being very accurate. a HS kid who can run an adult competitive time is rare. boling, kessler, knighton, etc. there is a reason they set U20 records when they do those times. it's because they aren't normal. they then are not the fastest against adults. lyles and naguse are. they might win a race with a second rate field but they aren't beating the best. but given their potential/ future being with great adults at 18 is spectacular.
a ton of HS-to-NBA types wash out. roughly 25 percent of MLB drafted HS players see the majors. and we're talking about 20 point a game, .500 hitter types in HS.
i also think you're missing that on the team game stuff, it's not can you fake them out once. HS kids are approaching adult proficiency and the good ones might have game to occasionally fool a pro. a lot of being a pro is adult attributes -- are you still tall/ fast/ strong/ skilled/ quick/ coordinated/ etc. in an adult environment -- and the ability to execute the expected flawless and the exceptional more often than normal. ok, you can run 10.2 with HS kids who can't keep up. what if christian coleman beats you from the blocks or noah lyles is chasing you? can you run a different race if the field demands it, and still win?
also i just think the venn overlaps more than people think. the higher you get up the scale the less difference there is between you and a pro. if you are sound and gifted, you might be able to beat a pro once. you might be able to hold a pro if you matched up. team sports a lot of it is convincing a coach you could do it every week. TF is slightly different as a race but some of that boils down to getting close enough some knowledgeable and fitting coach picks you to invest in to chase those last increments.
re your rookie of the year comment, in MLS soccer for decades the pattern was the ROY was a college draft pick, despite these days signing promising 18 year olds every year. my theory was a 21 year old rookie who got 2-3 years of college got invested in heavily and played as much as they could stand, in their young adult transition. they showed up ready to start or contribute. vs. kids who sign age 18 often have some maturing and growth to do or get stuck in situations where they rot while some coach tells himself he's working on their game. so they might play 5 games all season and get rusty -- even if they were seen as more promising than the 21 year old college kid.
the MLS pattern changed when they decided to include anyone U22 in their first MLS season in the running. it now often ends up rewarding some south american with years of pro experience who is young but just joining the league. but even that reflects an affection for players who have matured and played professionally somewhat.
last couple points, but re track 1) kessler didn't just come out and dominate, it's debatable whether he would have been worse for a year in college and 2) with the general precariousness of the career for many, does college simply make more long term sense for young promising runners. you have folks on here wanting valby or whatnot to go pro like they are baseball players handed multimillion signing bonuses who can step right up and compete for gold. more often reality is they get ok, livable money, and try to catch up to the world elite. there are plenty of stories of broke former runners, and some of the good ones aren't rich by american pro athlete standards. they do ok, professional job type money.
i say this because some of the attitude, which i think is living vicariously through them as jocks, is to encourage them all to go pro age 18 or leave early, like this is the NFL or NBA and even a brock purdy rookie deal sets you for life. it's not the case and then as i was suggesting, they usually have plenty of work to do to elevate from college-type times to elite levels. why is it fisher and naguse and not some of the others? they keep progressing. contrary to implication here they weren't medal ready when they left HS.
VIT wrote:
re your rookie of the year comment, in MLS soccer for decades the pattern was the ROY was a college draft pick, despite these days signing promising 18 year olds every year.
The MLS isn't a good comparison. It isn't one of the top leagues in the world like the NBA or the NHL is. The MLS is a minor league compared to the EPL, Serie A, La Liga, etc
If top college golfers were invited to play in more PGA Tour events, you would see that they would regularly beat some of the professional field, but they seldom would beat all the professionals.
Tyler Jordan wrote:
I can't think of another sport where this occurs on a weekly basis.
The difference with track is that many "pro" runners aren't actually that good, which is different than pro athletes in most other sports.
You can't be mediocre and be on a pro team in other sports like the New York Yankees or the Golden State Warriors. But anyone who is halfway decent can be a "pro" runner.
Take Sammy Watson, as just one example. She has been a "pro" 800 runner for 5 years now, and she still can't break 2 minutes.
If she had been a pro in most other sports, she would have been relieved of her "pro" status several years ago, and she would be working a regular office job right now.
Aside from rare generational talents like Sydney McLaughlin, Athing Mu, Noah Lyles, or Michael Norman, high school runners are not successfully competing against pro runners from Bowerman, OAC, or Bobby Kersee's group. They are only successfully competing against lower level so-called "pro" runners.
You have that backward. There are 1500 NFL players making millions. There are a handful of track athletes earning that much. Sammy Watson is a top ten 800 runner in the US. A top 10 quarterback in the NFL is earning $30 million per year. They aren't getting cut.
big bopper wrote:
You have that backward. There are 1500 NFL players making millions. There are a handful of track athletes earning that much. Sammy Watson is a top ten 800 runner in the US. A top 10 quarterback in the NFL is earning $30 million per year. They aren't getting cut.
You're confused. It has nothing at all to do with how much money NFL players make vs what track and field athletes make.
In the past 2 years, Sammy Watson has been slower than two high school 800 runners - Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker. In the past 2 years, Sammy Watson has also been slower than 2 college freshman - Addy Wiley, and Michaela Rose.
I guarantee you that there is not one starting quarterback in the NFL that is worse than a high school quarterback or a college freshman quarterback.
Like I said in my previous post, there are quite a few so called "pro" runners who aren't at a very high level, which is why high school runners can beat those low level "pro" runners. Sammy Watson is just one example. There are dozens more so called "pro" runners just like her.
Not only that, but with the shoes you now have some Kerr guy running same 2-mile time as freakin’ Komen. Let that sink in. Business as usual post Covid clown-shoe nonsense.
Of course money factors in. But getting past that, if Watson is the 10th best 800 runner, she wouldn't be cut in the NFL ad the 10th best QB. She wouldn't be cut if she was the 50th best QB. You are wrong and not even close.
Ffhj wrote:
Not only that, but with the shoes you now have some Kerr guy running same 2-mile time as freakin’ Komen. Let that sink in.
clown-shoe nonsense.
Not only that, but Komen used so much EPO that he could run as fast as a freakin' world champion in super shoes. Let that sink in.
EPO nonsense.
smarter than a fast one wrote:
if Watson is the 10th best 800 runner, she wouldn't be cut in the NFL ad the 10th best QB. She wouldn't be cut if she was the 50th best QB. You are wrong and not even close.
A pro quarterback who was worse that some high school quarterbacks would be 100% guaranteed to be cut from their pro team. It's not even debatable. You are arguing just to argue. You are completely and totally wrong.
If every QB except the top 10 remain, how would the NFL survive? Forget about a HS QB. Assume that there are some HS QBs who are as good as NFL QBs. Why wouldn't they be? There are always some HS sprinters who run about 10 flat which means they are fully developed.
Messi, Maradona and Pele routinely destroyed other pros (teammates, rivals) at 17.
Pro athletes aren't judged against high school athletes. You said that Watson would be cut if in the NFL. Your premise is incorrect. She would earn millions per year in the NFL as a top tier person at her position. You are making no sense.
smarter than a fast one wrote:
If every QB except the top 10 remain, how would the NFL survive? Forget about a HS QB. Assume that there are some HS QBs who are as good as NFL QBs. Why wouldn't they be? There are always some HS sprinters who run about 10 flat which means they are fully developed.
You're a very confused person. This entire thread is about why do some high school runners beat some pro runners. Are you not aware that this is what the entire thread is about?
And the answer to the OP's question is that many "pro" runners aren't that good, which is why some high school runners can beat them.
Not sure why that is so hard for you to grasp.
Yes. It happens the least in distance running. Yet the OP and some other knuckleheads are confused.
No. The OP asked why it happens in running and not other sports. It happens more in other sports. You were the knucklehead who expanded the discussion to say that a top 10 pro athlete would be cut in the NFL. That is false. That isn't an opinion. You claim that every QB ranked 10th or worse in the NFL would be cut. Sure thing bucko.
NFL man wrote:
No. The OP asked why it happens in running and not other sports. It happens more in other sports. You were the knucklehead who expanded the discussion to say that a top 10 pro athlete would be cut in the NFL. That is false. That isn't an opinion. You claim that every QB ranked 10th or worse in the NFL would be cut. Sure thing bucko.
You're a flat out liar, you stupid idiot. I NEVER said a NFL quarterback who wasn't in the top 10 in the NFL would be cut, and you KNOW I never said that.
I said that a NFL quarterback who wasn't better than some high school quarterbacks would be cut. THAT is what I said, you dummy. Damn, you are so dishonest.