That might even be slower than reality. He ran what, 2:09 flat essentially? With a hot/slow race and no pacers, and clearly holding back and celebrating the last few miles (Interacting with the crowd, etc). You'd have to think if he re-ran chicago in the shape he was today he would have been in the 2:06's.
He had a great rabbit from 6-22 miles. The conditions weren’t great but also not horrible. And all the crowd stuff is like 5s. 2 mins for a 2:07 sounds about right. It is amazing how a couple secs/mile make you go from looking good to dying😂
Does anyone know why he always refers to Conor Mantz by his full name? He never just calls him Conor, it's always Conor Mantz. I listened to the Citius interview with him and he refers to all of his other competitors by their first names but Mantz is always Conor Mantz. It's not important, just a bit weird. Is it some Mormon thing?
My guess is that he's gotten used to referring to him either by his full name or by "Mantz" because several of his college teammates shared the same first name, such as Connor McMillan and Connor Weaver.
No American man will medal at he 2024 Paris Olympics.
I wish I was wrong, but it's just not going to happen. The elite marathoners of the world will blow our amateurs away.
+1 This.
He seems a great guy, he did fantastic at the trials and I'm certainly not rooting against him but there is no chance.
The man has only ever ran Chicago & U.S. trials'. He going to go to a hilly course against a completely different standard of athlete. He's going up against a guy who has run the second half of a Marathon 2mins quicker than Young's HM PR.
The top 8 seeds alone can put 5-8mins into Young over a Marathon and he's currently seeded 60th of those entered on the Road to Paris tool. In his PR race on a flat course he finished 8th, 4mins behind the podium and 8mins behind the win.
I'll be happy if I'm proven wrong, and I appreciate people said similar before Seidel won Bronze, but this Men's field is too deep and too far down the road for Young to be a factor.
That might even be slower than reality. He ran what, 2:09 flat essentially? With a hot/slow race and no pacers, and clearly holding back and celebrating the last few miles (Interacting with the crowd, etc). You'd have to think if he re-ran chicago in the shape he was today he would have been in the 2:06's.
He had a great rabbit from 6-22 miles. The conditions weren’t great but also not horrible. And all the crowd stuff is like 5s. 2 mins for a 2:07 sounds about right. It is amazing how a couple secs/mile make you go from looking good to dying😂
Honestly the conditions for Young were good enough that I don’t think we can assume he’s good for better than the 2:08:00 he ran in Chicago, though it’s certainly possible. Sub-2:07 is overly generous just given how historically rare that is for an American man.
Gut feeling guess, I could see Mantz and Young finishing 9 & 10 (or vice versa) like Ritz and Hall in 2008. That wouldn’t be a big thrill but it would still be a very solid performance.
He looks fit, relaxed and his humility will lead him to greatness.
Young ran great at Trials. Your headline aside, I am bullish on his performance in Paris (although we can't know yet).
From a performance standpoint, the bronze, silver, and gold medals are incredibly rarified accomplishments in ascending order of difficulty. NARRATIVELY, each of the medals means something different.
Gold: #1, best in the world, at least on the day. No caveats here
Silver: First loser. Someone who could have won but didn't (e.g. Jakob). Or the "best of the rest" behind a generational talent (e.g. Sihine)
Bronze: Dark horse surprise medalist. Best they could have hoped for in their wildest dreams (alternatively, used to describe a favorite who falters (e.g. Mu); silver could mean someone else was better, but to be beaten by two others means it's your "fault")
When you say that Young will win Olympic bronze, you're saying he fits into the third bucket. Which I agree with! We shouldn't take it literally; examples here include Meb 2004 (silver), Seidel 2021 (bronze), Meb 2012 (4th), and Ward 2016 (6th). But with the caveats that you never know with the marathon and the Olympic level is far higher than the Trials, yes, I could see Young performing very well.
Wilson Kipsang was a FAR more talented runner than Stephen Kiprotich, who had no business winning the 2012 Olympics over Kipsang and even Kirui too, you're going to compare Kipsang's accomplishments and marathon titles to Kiprotich's and say Kiprotich was the best in the world? LOL