There is no reason to believe Klaver would beat Bol if she doesn’t get the break. It’s hard to do and Bol is an outstanding closer especially indoors. So to win, Klaver has to grab the break and hope Bol tries some early passes/runs too wide before the last 50. It would take perfect execution in my view because Bol is some .5-1 second fitter. It’s possible, but unlikely.
Why do you expect Klaver to open faster? She is slower than Bol in 200 and has less endurance too, so it doesn't make any sense for her to open faster than Bol
Klaver is not slower than Bol at 200. They have faced each other in practice sessions for years at 200, in recent years with Kielbasinka alongside. Klaver always wins those sprint 200s and takes pride in it.
Klaver is 5-0 head to head against Bol at 200, always at Dutch outdoor championships.
Granted, Bol has improved her strength and speed recently and it transfers best to indoors. She is the very rare 400 meter runner who is faster indoors than outdoors. But if they go full out alongside each other I'm confident Klaver would still prevail narrowly.
When it comes to head to head against Klaver indoors, the key aspect is what Klaver decides to do. In prior years Klaver always pressed the pace and reached 200 ahead of Bol. That caused Klaver to tighten up and fade. Last year Klaver figured out that she'll run faster times if she relaxes on the first lap and allows Bol to lead. I expect it will play out that way again this year.
Note the recent examples of the past few days. Klaver was pressured on lap one in Metz on Saturday and tightened up noticeably. She finished well above 51. Today in Torun Klaver was able to relax on the first lap. She ran much better and finished with one of her best times at 50.57
Bol rarely races the flat 400 outdoors (relay splits not counted) so I think her potential is not yet realized.
Why do you expect Klaver to open faster? She is slower than Bol in 200 and has less endurance too, so it doesn't make any sense for her to open faster than Bol
Klaver is not slower than Bol at 200. They have faced each other in practice sessions for years at 200, in recent years with Kielbasinka alongside. Klaver always wins those sprint 200s and takes pride in it.
Klaver is 5-0 head to head against Bol at 200, always at Dutch outdoor championships.
Granted, Bol has improved her strength and speed recently and it transfers best to indoors. She is the very rare 400 meter runner who is faster indoors than outdoors. But if they go full out alongside each other I'm confident Klaver would still prevail narrowly.
When it comes to head to head against Klaver indoors, the key aspect is what Klaver decides to do. In prior years Klaver always pressed the pace and reached 200 ahead of Bol. That caused Klaver to tighten up and fade. Last year Klaver figured out that she'll run faster times if she relaxes on the first lap and allows Bol to lead. I expect it will play out that way again this year.
Note the recent examples of the past few days. Klaver was pressured on lap one in Metz on Saturday and tightened up noticeably. She finished well above 51. Today in Torun Klaver was able to relax on the first lap. She ran much better and finished with one of her best times at 50.57
Last year in 200m in Metz Bol 22.87, Klaver 22.97. This year Bol 22.64, Klaver 22.81. That 5-0 head to head was prior to 2023
There is no reason to believe Klaver would beat Bol if she doesn’t get the break. It’s hard to do and Bol is an outstanding closer especially indoors. So to win, Klaver has to grab the break and hope Bol tries some early passes/runs too wide before the last 50. It would take perfect execution in my view because Bol is some .5-1 second fitter. It’s possible, but unlikely.
Remember when Athing lost the NCAA Indoor 400 because she couldn't pass Kaelin Roberts? That's what Klaver needs to do if she ever wants to beat Bol indoors.
Bol is going to race against Klaver this weekend and also at Dutch nationals the following weekend. I suspect Klaver will use the same tactic both times, willingly settling behind Bol at 200.
That's going to produce some fast times and no traffic issues. But the problem for Bol is Glasgow and the possibility that somebody from another country won't agree to that ceremonial first lap. Bol lost to Miller-Uibo in the 2022 world indoor final when Miller-Uibo was simply faster and beat her to the junction.
Bol is considerably better 2 years later. She has dropped her personal best from 50.30 to 49.26. Her standard indoor clocking is now below 50. Nobody else can claim anything close to that.
But at indoor 400 everything changes depending on who leads at the junction. There aren't too many top 400 runners who can beat Bol to the corner. With Sydney absent and Paulino always skipping indoors, the only possibilities I can think of are Adeleke, Kaczmarek, Wilson, Diggs and Steiner, along with Klaver.
Maybe I missed somebody. Obviously not many of them will be in Glasgow. But IMO Bol's greatest vulnerability in Glasgow is if the field lets her have it easy the first two rounds, then somebody springs a surprise attack in the final and beats her to the corner. That's how Stephanie McPherson upset Bol in the 2022 world indoor semifinal. It left Bol face planted at the finish and then in tears while hugging her boyfriend backstage.
This is not a minor matter. Bol's coach Meuwly emphasized in that recent Athletics Weekly article that Bol's two remaining career goals are world indoor gold and Olympic gold.
Last year in 200m in Metz Bol 22.87, Klaver 22.97. This year Bol 22.64, Klaver 22.81. That 5-0 head to head was prior to 2023
No; they were in different heats in both of those meetings, so did not race each other.
Every time they have raced each other at 200m, Klaver has won.
Despite being slightly taller and longer legged, Bol just seems to be more efficient at 200m indoors than Klaver. Bol's form is tidier, she seems to navigate the turns well, whereas when Klaver is at full pelt, she struggles more. Klaver's 400m in Ostrava was interesting in that despite running apparently relaxed, her left arm was very untidy.
It will be interesting to see if they both race 200m at the outdoor Champs this summer, or whether they will go in separate events, like they did for the first time last year (Klaver did the 100m)
It's worth noting that last year, Bol's best times on the flat remained her indoor runs, whereas Klaver's best times were her outdoors. The caveat is of course that Bol hardly races the flat outdoors compared to Klaver. But Klaver went from 22.9/50.3 indoors to 22.4/49.8 outdoors. Bol went 22.8/49.2 indoors to 22.8/49.8 outdoors. I would like to see Bol race more on the flat outdoors, but I doubt she will: the hurdles is her priority. On Klaver, after Paris I would like to see her do one season of 100/200, to see how she can improve there, before going back to the 400m. With more technical training I could see her going much faster at 200m. Not fast enough to challenge a Jackson, but sub 22, which would be great when she went back to the 400m.
Last year in 200m in Metz Bol 22.87, Klaver 22.97. This year Bol 22.64, Klaver 22.81. That 5-0 head to head was prior to 2023
No; they were in different heats in both of those meetings, so did not race each other.
Every time they have raced each other at 200m, Klaver has won.
Despite being slightly taller and longer legged, Bol just seems to be more efficient at 200m indoors than Klaver. Bol's form is tidier, she seems to navigate the turns well, whereas when Klaver is at full pelt, she struggles more. Klaver's 400m in Ostrava was interesting in that despite running apparently relaxed, her left arm was very untidy.
It will be interesting to see if they both race 200m at the outdoor Champs this summer, or whether they will go in separate events, like they did for the first time last year (Klaver did the 100m)
It's worth noting that last year, Bol's best times on the flat remained her indoor runs, whereas Klaver's best times were her outdoors. The caveat is of course that Bol hardly races the flat outdoors compared to Klaver. But Klaver went from 22.9/50.3 indoors to 22.4/49.8 outdoors. Bol went 22.8/49.2 indoors to 22.8/49.8 outdoors. I would like to see Bol race more on the flat outdoors, but I doubt she will: the hurdles is her priority. On Klaver, after Paris I would like to see her do one season of 100/200, to see how she can improve there, before going back to the 400m. With more technical training I could see her going much faster at 200m. Not fast enough to challenge a Jackson, but sub 22, which would be great when she went back to the 400m.
I know they were in different heats, that doesn't change the fact that Bol ran faster than Klaver in both 2023 and 2024 at 200m indoors. And it's true that every time they faced in 200m Klaver won, but the last one was in 2022 when Bol was clearly slower than now at 200. Last year Bol in her WR race opened with 23.63 and this year she is even faster, so how do you expect Klaver to take the lead?
I know they were in different heats, that doesn't change the fact that Bol ran faster than Klaver in both 2023 and 2024 at 200m indoors. And it's true that every time they faced in 200m Klaver won, but the last one was in 2022 when Bol was clearly slower than now at 200. Last year Bol in her WR race opened with 23.63 and this year she is even faster, so how do you expect Klaver to take the lead?
Because I actually think Klaver is still better than Bol over 200m.
Bol is better this year than last, absolutely. And looking at their times in Metz, one could say she is better than Klaver at 200m right now. But IMO, it was a bad, tense race from Klaver, and were they to go head-to-head, Klaver would beat Bol over 200m.
The only (small) chance Klaver has to beat Bol at 400m indoors is to beat her to the 200m break and force her to run wide. Of course, as you point out, Bol could run a much faster opening 200m split than the 23.95 she did in Metz. Something like a 23.6 would be too fast for Klaver, in terms of the second lap - she would just deteriorate too much - whereas Bol can sustain it.
The problem for Klaver is they are friends and have the same coach. She will no doubt be instructed to allow Bol to lead at 200m, and to try and hold on as much as she can. They are also trying to (understandably) make Klaver's racing and pacing more efficient. I get both of those, but if she really wants any chance of winning, you just don't hand it to someone, you fight and make them work for it.
I know they were in different heats, that doesn't change the fact that Bol ran faster than Klaver in both 2023 and 2024 at 200m indoors. And it's true that every time they faced in 200m Klaver won, but the last one was in 2022 when Bol was clearly slower than now at 200. Last year Bol in her WR race opened with 23.63 and this year she is even faster, so how do you expect Klaver to take the lead?
Because I actually think Klaver is still better than Bol over 200m.
Bol is better this year than last, absolutely. And looking at their times in Metz, one could say she is better than Klaver at 200m right now. But IMO, it was a bad, tense race from Klaver, and were they to go head-to-head, Klaver would beat Bol over 200m.
The only (small) chance Klaver has to beat Bol at 400m indoors is to beat her to the 200m break and force her to run wide. Of course, as you point out, Bol could run a much faster opening 200m split than the 23.95 she did in Metz. Something like a 23.6 would be too fast for Klaver, in terms of the second lap - she would just deteriorate too much - whereas Bol can sustain it.
Confusing. You previously posted this:
Lieke Klaver stupidly opened in 24.2 which is too slow for her and meant she had to increase her pace too much too early. Hopefully she learns from that. She opened in 23.9 in her Ostrava run for comparison. I believe Klaver should aim for 23.7 - 23.9 opener in her next race in Poland to see how she does. Certainly no slower than 23.9
Is .1 to .3 second slower significantly different for the first lap when you say 23.6 is too fast?
I know they were in different heats, that doesn't change the fact that Bol ran faster than Klaver in both 2023 and 2024 at 200m indoors. And it's true that every time they faced in 200m Klaver won, but the last one was in 2022 when Bol was clearly slower than now at 200. Last year Bol in her WR race opened with 23.63 and this year she is even faster, so how do you expect Klaver to take the lead?
Because I actually think Klaver is still better than Bol over 200m.
Bol is better this year than last, absolutely. And looking at their times in Metz, one could say she is better than Klaver at 200m right now. But IMO, it was a bad, tense race from Klaver, and were they to go head-to-head, Klaver would beat Bol over 200m.
The only (small) chance Klaver has to beat Bol at 400m indoors is to beat her to the 200m break and force her to run wide. Of course, as you point out, Bol could run a much faster opening 200m split than the 23.95 she did in Metz. Something like a 23.6 would be too fast for Klaver, in terms of the second lap - she would just deteriorate too much - whereas Bol can sustain it.
The problem for Klaver is they are friends and have the same coach. She will no doubt be instructed to allow Bol to lead at 200m, and to try and hold on as much as she can. They are also trying to (understandably) make Klaver's racing and pacing more efficient. I get both of those, but if she really wants any chance of winning, you just don't hand it to someone, you fight and make them work for it.
The reason why last year Klaver did not take the lead is because Bol ran 23.63 in the first lap in the WR race and 23.73 in the European Championships final. This year Bol is faster so I think she wants to open faster than that (maybe 23.4), so if Klaver takes the lead she will probably end in 51
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Because I actually think Klaver is still better than Bol over 200m.
Bol is better this year than last, absolutely. And looking at their times in Metz, one could say she is better than Klaver at 200m right now. But IMO, it was a bad, tense race from Klaver, and were they to go head-to-head, Klaver would beat Bol over 200m.
The only (small) chance Klaver has to beat Bol at 400m indoors is to beat her to the 200m break and force her to run wide. Of course, as you point out, Bol could run a much faster opening 200m split than the 23.95 she did in Metz. Something like a 23.6 would be too fast for Klaver, in terms of the second lap - she would just deteriorate too much - whereas Bol can sustain it.
Confusing. You previously posted this:
Lieke Klaver stupidly opened in 24.2 which is too slow for her and meant she had to increase her pace too much too early. Hopefully she learns from that. She opened in 23.9 in her Ostrava run for comparison. I believe Klaver should aim for 23.7 - 23.9 opener in her next race in Poland to see how she does. Certainly no slower than 23.9
Is .1 to .3 second slower significantly different for the first lap when you say 23.6 is too fast?
It is - do you know much about 400m pacing? You have a relatively small optimal window. Anything faster means you falter in the second half, which can be quite dramatic (Klaver herself has done this many times by being too exuberant in the opening 200m. Budapest was the latest example, she hit the 200m mark .3 faster than her SF and died in the straight.) Equally, anything slower means you cannot make up the ground in the second half, because you still don't finish any quicker. (Klaver's final 50m splits in various races show she finishes no quicker if she goes out too slow. )You have to find that sweet pot.
This winter, Klaver's sweet spot looks to be somewhere between 23.7 and 23.9 IMO. We haven't seen her go out faster than 23.9 yet though. So who knows, maybe 23.7 is even too fast, but my instinct is she can manage that. 23.8 could be her ultimate pace.
The point about her doing 23.6, is that it might be needed to beat Bol to the break as you say. My point is, if she does it at the NCs, it doesn't matter if she falters in the 2nd half, she is still much better than the next best Dutchie. So she would finish second anyway. So my view is, just go for it! Don't hand your competitor an easy win, make it tough for them, and who knows, it might throw Bol off. Of course, Bol looks amazingly strong, so it may not make any difference, but nothing ventured....and, if she does it at the NCs, she will know whether it works or not before the World Indoors, where she has more to lose if it doesn't work.
Swiety-Ersetic has employed a similar tactic against Bol in a couple of 4x4's, doing enough to keep her at bay and make her run the turn wide. Stephanie Ann McPherson also did this in the last World Indoor 400m SFinals. Klaver has the opportunity to disrupt Bol's race. If she were not her countrywoman, I believe she would attempt it. Alas, as it is, and she is also her friend, I don't think she will.
Is .1 to .3 second slower significantly different for the first lap when you say 23.6 is too fast?
It is - do you know much about 400m pacing? You have a relatively small optimal window. Anything faster means you falter in the second half, which can be quite dramatic (Klaver herself has done this many times by being too exuberant in the opening 200m. Budapest was the latest example, she hit the 200m mark .3 faster than her SF and died in the straight.) Equally, anything slower means you cannot make up the ground in the second half, because you still don't finish any quicker. (Klaver's final 50m splits in various races show she finishes no quicker if she goes out too slow. )You have to find that sweet pot.
This winter, Klaver's sweet spot looks to be somewhere between 23.7 and 23.9 IMO. We haven't seen her go out faster than 23.9 yet though. So who knows, maybe 23.7 is even too fast, but my instinct is she can manage that. 23.8 could be her ultimate pace.
The point about her doing 23.6, is that it might be needed to beat Bol to the break as you say. My point is, if she does it at the NCs, it doesn't matter if she falters in the 2nd half, she is still much better than the next best Dutchie. So she would finish second anyway. So my view is, just go for it! Don't hand your competitor an easy win, make it tough for them, and who knows, it might throw Bol off. Of course, Bol looks amazingly strong, so it may not make any difference, but nothing ventured....and, if she does it at the NCs, she will know whether it works or not before the World Indoors, where she has more to lose if it doesn't work.
Swiety-Ersetic has employed a similar tactic against Bol in a couple of 4x4's, doing enough to keep her at bay and make her run the turn wide. Stephanie Ann McPherson also did this in the last World Indoor 400m SFinals. Klaver has the opportunity to disrupt Bol's race. If she were not her countrywoman, I believe she would attempt it. Alas, as it is, and she is also her friend, I don't think she will.
You're way over analyzing that. The main problem is how ANY runner can pace themselves within 3 tenths of a second. Especially indoors where a little drift on the curves can cost tenths.
23.6 is too fast but 23.7 isn't? I don't think it makes a difference in the final result.
It is - do you know much about 400m pacing? You have a relatively small optimal window. Anything faster means you falter in the second half, which can be quite dramatic (Klaver herself has done this many times by being too exuberant in the opening 200m. Budapest was the latest example, she hit the 200m mark .3 faster than her SF and died in the straight.) Equally, anything slower means you cannot make up the ground in the second half, because you still don't finish any quicker. (Klaver's final 50m splits in various races show she finishes no quicker if she goes out too slow. )You have to find that sweet pot.
This winter, Klaver's sweet spot looks to be somewhere between 23.7 and 23.9 IMO. We haven't seen her go out faster than 23.9 yet though. So who knows, maybe 23.7 is even too fast, but my instinct is she can manage that. 23.8 could be her ultimate pace.
The point about her doing 23.6, is that it might be needed to beat Bol to the break as you say. My point is, if she does it at the NCs, it doesn't matter if she falters in the 2nd half, she is still much better than the next best Dutchie. So she would finish second anyway. So my view is, just go for it! Don't hand your competitor an easy win, make it tough for them, and who knows, it might throw Bol off. Of course, Bol looks amazingly strong, so it may not make any difference, but nothing ventured....and, if she does it at the NCs, she will know whether it works or not before the World Indoors, where she has more to lose if it doesn't work.
Swiety-Ersetic has employed a similar tactic against Bol in a couple of 4x4's, doing enough to keep her at bay and make her run the turn wide. Stephanie Ann McPherson also did this in the last World Indoor 400m SFinals. Klaver has the opportunity to disrupt Bol's race. If she were not her countrywoman, I believe she would attempt it. Alas, as it is, and she is also her friend, I don't think she will.
You're way over analyzing that. The main problem is how ANY runner can pace themselves within 3 tenths of a second. Especially indoors where a little drift on the curves can cost tenths.
23.6 is too fast but 23.7 isn't? I don't think it makes a difference in the final result.
By my calculation 23.7 compared to 23.6 over 200 meters is virtually equidistant, maybe less than 2 feet?