We have some of the favorites that have never run a marathon that has reached 50 degrees. Being a good heat runner for a warm half marathon does not equate to a warm marathon. Chicago is 3 minutes slower when it is 65 compared to 45.
Lived in Chicago and now live in Florida. Florida forecasts are way more accurate. Occasionally they are off a bit on precipitation amounts. But they nail the highs, lows and humidity.
no trade winds in Florida so it’s easier to get it right.
Current dewpoint forecast is 56-57 F. Comfortable.
I don't think finishing a marathoning in 73-degree weather is comfortable no matter what the humidity is.
But yeah Paris will be even hotter so this might choose a better team for Paris than a cooler race would.
Yes, all in all this is not ideal but still pretty comfortable and close to expected conditions for Paris. Seems like Orlando is going to work well for choosing the team.
Well, it's a flat course compared to hills. The 2-hr difference in 10am and a noon start doesn't change the dew point, but most must be happy for the 10-degree difference. Except maybe Des, Rupp and Molly Seidel.
Maybe then the trials are not the best system, maybe it should be the first 3 americans home in the boston/new york marathon, doesn't have the heat but has the hills
Honestly looks pretty good to me. I'm seeing low-60s & 70ish by the finish but with low-ish humidity (low-50s dew point). Runnersconnect adjusts 5:00 pace to 5:09 w./ 70 degrees & 53 dew point which is ~high end. Maybe it's more like 5s/mile slow for the whole thing for well prepared runners. That's not so bad. It shouldn't affect who makes the team. Just go out, race, & compete. We could still see some decent times. Top-3 men/women maybe faster than 2:10/2:25.
There's a high pressure over the midwest and a Low Pressure somewhere over Colorado that *might* take shape around Feb3rd timeline. This means a ton of high humidity moisture is going to get sucked up from the gulf headed north. I am thinking the humidity is going to be a lot higher than they are prediciting in Orlando due to weatehr systems thousands of miles away sucking in that warm ocean conditions.
I'm in Orlando currently as I will be racing at the trials and although it isn't too hot here the humidity is killer. If the trials are anything like how it has been the last few mornings here, it will be a bloodbath (or sweatbath I should say) for most.
Honestly looks pretty good to me. I'm seeing low-60s & 70ish by the finish but with low-ish humidity (low-50s dew point). Runnersconnect adjusts 5:00 pace to 5:09 w./ 70 degrees & 53 dew point which is ~high end. Maybe it's more like 5s/mile slow for the whole thing for well prepared runners. That's not so bad. It shouldn't affect who makes the team. Just go out, race, & compete. We could still see some decent times. Top-3 men/women maybe faster than 2:10/2:25.
I'll bite on the conversions.
The main problem I see here is that the weather will only slightly affect placement, but will have a moderate affect on times. Times matter because currently the USA only has two spots unlocked.
When people talk about the weather bloodbath about to ensue, it's because there will be people going for the auto qualified standard and be utterly wiped out. They will also tow more people with them trying to stay with the pack trying to achieve 2:08:10.
There are likely only 5-6 guys that "could" run the standard on a humid day, but there will be 15-20 on pace through halfway. In all likelihood, no one runs the standard and the two guys with it will lay off the pace until it's time to grab podium spots. The third spot (outside of Young/Mantz), won't make the road to Olympic top 85 or whatever because spring marathon season hasn't even started and a ton of guys will run in better conditions than Orlando.
I'm in Orlando currently as I will be racing at the trials and although it isn't too hot here the humidity is killer. If the trials are anything like how it has been the last few mornings here, it will be a bloodbath (or sweatbath I should say) for most.
It’s near record highs right now. It’s going to cool down quite a bit by Monday, and it will bring drier air.
The dew point was in the high 30s for my race last weekend in Tampa.
Right now the forecast looks pretty good for the 3rd, but it could certainly still change.
Maybe then the trials are not the best system, maybe it should be the first 3 americans home in the boston/new york marathon, doesn't have the heat but has the hills
You have a point. At one time the Trials were at locations that would simulate the Olympics (Alamosa/Mexico City) (Eugene/Munich) (Eugene/Montreal) (Buffalo/Moscow). But by the mid-80s they generally went with the highest bidder. Columbus, NJ, and Pittsburgh had it. But for some reason they didn't host the Trials for the Atlanta Games in Atlanta. I think both days (separate venues for men and women back then) it was freezing. Another thing that has changed is that the Trials are now 6-7 months before the OGs, whereas in the earlier years it was only 3-4 months.
