WARNING: Long post ahead...
Based on timelines, former BTC athlete statements, recent Nike executive and business challenges, and some insider rumblings, here is my take on the Bowerman Track Club situation:
1. In 2015, BTC was a pretty tight ship and Jerry had very good control over a right sized program. Athletes got along, the team was mostly young athletes on the upswing, and all were on the same page.
2. 2016 was incredible and the peak of the team's success. Careers were made, bonus money flowed, and BTC established itself as one of the best clubs in the world. Schumacher could do no wrong.
3. After Rio, the team had many stars and tensions began rising. Quigley started to expand her social media footprint, capitalized on her ability to score small deals in addition to her Nike contract, and became US running's "IT!" girl. This created some envy amongst more established veterans and some outright jealousy from more talented but less marketable teammates.
4. BTC expanded its men's and women's rosters significantly bringing in a diverse array of talent and personalities. Like any business, expansion brings complexity that is more difficult to manage. Athletes in different career stages, event groups, and with varied agendas broke down the formerly cohesive nature of the team. It was rumored that Schumacher had actively discouraged dating within his college and pro squads to avoid conflicts and factions being formed. After signing two athletes that came as a couple, this alleged rule seemed to no longer apply. Relationships and breakups ensue over time which might have caused an awkward environment.
5. Quigley has some good success running indoors, including a national indoor mile title over Houlihan, and mainstream media starts to take more notice of her. She begins to transcend the sport becoming an advocate for empowerment and social causes. A rift between her and Houlihan becomes more apparent and public.
6. Veteran athletes that brought maturity and wise counsel start to leave via retirement or assume coaching roles changing the overall dynamic. There are still many successes, but the BTC domination is beginning to wane.
7. COVID throws everything into disarray. Some athletes begin to lose passion for the sport and the team. Everyone's mental health suffers. Closed time trials are a poor substitute for real racing and, over time, you see the athletes putting less effort into them as they become a vehicle to hit contract minimums.
8. The team atmosphere starts to fall apart as some are burned out, some are looking for change, and others are either injured or not reaching their prior levels of performance. It also appears that some generational division is taking place between the old guard and younger signees.
9. Athletes start leaving Bowerman for new sponsors, other coaches, or for a change of scenery.
10. The Burrito (with all of its PR mistakes, drama, appeals, and fallout)
11. More athletes begin leaving as distractions mount and some lose faith in Schumacher's methods.
12. Scandals and personal misbehavior amongst Nike's senior leadership causes a massive turnover in the C-Suite. Sports obsessed and product-oriented leaders are replaced with executives from technology, entertainment, and consulting firms. Visionaries are replaced by technocrats and Nike's priorities shift away from marketing and product creation towards retail distribution strategies and operational efficiency.
13. John Capriotti, BTC's guardian angel, leaves Nike. Money for track athletes and for high budget corporate teams is no longer a given with new company leadership in Beaverton.
14. An aging Phil Knight wants to cement his legacy on the sport. He builds a new Hayward Field, lures the World Championships to Eugene, creates a reported $1 billion endowment to ensure University of Oregon track is funded in perpetuity, and he wishes to see the Ducks return to being a DISTANCE RUNNING powerhouse in his remaining years.
15. Robert Johnson is forced out of Oregon despite much success and several national titles won on the strength of his sprinters. This opens the door for a distance focused HC to assume control of the Ducks. Knight reportedly loves Jerry and Shalane.
16. Schumacher and Flanagan are hired to restore Oregon's distance running legacy. In an attempt to kill two birds with one stone, the Bowerman professional program is relocated to Eugene. This caused no small number of headaches, heartburn, and displeasure with the BTC athletes. Frerichs does a wonderful job of summing up how most felt about the move and one can speculate that some athletes chose to leave for similar reasons.
17. What happens after 2024? Will Bowerman TC survive (or Union, for that matter)? Will Nike continue to fund it? That remains to be seen. With Nike seeking $2 billion in cost savings over the next year and layoffs happening at WHQ, it's not inconceivable that BTC could be seen as frivolous spending by the current company leadership and closed down. Despite some new talented signees, I don't see that there is any shareholder value in keeping the professional club.