Over the past few days, much has been discussed on this forum regarding Parker Valby’s SEC time this year being slower than last year, 18:37.5 vs. 18:25.9, in spite of Valby appearing to run very hard this year, to the point of red-lining.
This has been a bit of an enigma, because Valby has definitely looked a bit stronger and more fit this year, at least at Nuttycombe, where she decisively trounced Katelyn Tuohy in a ‘tough-mudder’ battling windy and rainy elements, while besting Monson’s course record in the process.
Various reasons have been offered for the slower SEC time this year, including:
(1) the 2022 course was (maybe) a bit short;
(2) the 2023 course (sandy, a roller, etc.), though fast, was not as fast as the 2022 course;
(3) 2023 was run approximately an hour later in the day, and in a bit more uncomfortable conditions (higher temp, no cooling breeze).
I now want to offer a reason not mentioned yet, which, although seemingly overlooked up to now, most definitely would have had an impact on the final results: the splits.
Here are the 3k splits for the 2023 race vs the 2022 race: 8:58 vs. 9:12. That difference tells most of the story.
Valby had three Kenyan’s hot on her tail up to about 2k, with only one remaining at 3k.
The 2023 race was taken out much faster, earlier on, than the 2022 race; the price that was paid in doing so was the chief reason for Valby’s slower finishing time this year.