Alicia Monson: time to move up

There is a scenario where Alicia could medal in the 10k . . . but it would first require getting her pr within range of the other very best women.

The following may never happen . . . however, Alicia has proven she can race well in bad conditions . . . so, for the sake of this discussion . . . worth considering.

Alicia's current 10k pr of 30:03 currently ranks 18th on the AT list . . . but her current 5k pr of 14:19 (14th AT) predicts a 10k of approx. 29:38 ((14:19 + 0:30) x 2).

Now, fast-forward to Sound Running's The TEN next year or in 2025 where Alicia gets her 10k pr down to 29:30 . . . this would place her 3rd on the current AT list . . . only Gidey and Hassan would be ahead of her while Tsegay would be right behind.

Come Paris Olympics or Tokyo Worlds where the weather is hot & humid . . . as a result, the 10k final dawdles along at 32:00 pace like it did in Budapest . . . all the medal contenders are in it at 8k including Alicia . . . except now, Alicia is feeling just as good as they are due to her improved fitness . . . but knows she will get mowed down if the race becomes a wind-up at 800m followed by a last lap kick.

So, Alicia takes the lead at 8k to 8.4k and grinds it to the end . . . running 70s, 69s, then 68 . . . presumably dropping all the runners with slower prs than hers . . . leaving only Gidey, Hassan and Tsegay in the lead group . . . then hope one of the other three has had her legs run out from under her at the end.

Viola!! . . . we have a medal.

Yeah, Monson really resembles her coach, Dathan Ritzenhein. Very strong, but no kick. She can set American records and stick with any pace but as soon as the kick starts, she's dropped. In the 10k she lost 4+ seconds in the last 300. In the 5k, 10 seconds on the last lap. Unless she can close in less than 60 seconds it's unlikely she can contend for a medal. Which is fine. A lot of American distance runners can have pretty good careers just being best American. It really depends on Monson and her own ambitions. She might want to try a marathon soon.

Fifth at worlds doesn’t mean you need to move up. She just needs more fitness and some luck. The mens 1500 isn’t a slow race anymore, the women’s 5000 or 10,000 doesn’t have to be either. Go to the front and grind it out, might be possible to get in the top 3. If she keeps improving on 14:19 the group that can go with her will become pretty small.

That is indeed the harsh reality. Monson looks like a housewife out there. She's got no chance when the burn up begins. Not just 10 meters no chance. Half the stretch no chance.

Unfortunately the commentators like Kara Goucher don't like to concede the harsh reality to the audience because they see lots of themselves in Monson. American women won quite a few 1500 to 10,000 medals in weaker environment than today. Those days are over for the foreseeable. Most of those women were outmatched athletes. The exceptions might be Jenny Simpson and also Courtney Frerichs. Both of them had some burst. When Shelby came onto the scene it was astonishing to see an American woman with late high knees and giddyup. However it happened I can still envision those races and remember how startled I was.

Addy Wiley is a better athlete than anyone recently, other than Mu.

Alicia may have an easier run than you imagine. Gidey has stated to Ethiopian media prior to departure to Budapest, that she plans on running the marathon for Ethiopia at the Paris Olympics. Most likely Hassan will have moved on by then also. - Bad news is Tsegay will still be there and perhaps Kipyegon?

She's a fantastic runner. One of America's very best at the 10 and 5. But yeah, she'll never medal on the track. She can't close with the best of the best. It's awesome she can grind out a 65 second 400 to finish a grueling hot world final 5,000. That's super fast especially in those conditions. But the top women just made her look like she was running in Jell-O. She should definitely try her hand in some longer road races.

At Paris, the women's 10k is Aug 9th . . . women's marathon is Aug 11th . . . so if Hassan & Gidey do commit to the marathon, doubt they would attempt the 10k/marathon double . . . but, who knows, especially with Hassan? . . . however, you are correct about an "easier run" for Alicia if the marathon does draw away top talent from the 10k.

Also to Alicia's benefit is the women's 5k comes before the 10k next year . . . but only beneficial if Alicia just races the 10k . . . this schedule works great for someone like Cranny who may double but who's better at the shorter distance . . .

Re: Kipyegon . . . women's 1500 and 5k races are interlaced . . . and the 1500 includes the new repechage round . . . while the 1500 final is the day following the 10k final . . . so the 1500/5k double as well as the 1500/10k double would be really difficult . . . so Faith may decide to just defend her 1500 title . . . at least that's what I hope :-)

Well, Faith just stated she wants to triple in Paris . . . so, Alicia's run for a medal may have just become a little bit harder . . ..

sub 4?? the 5k podium was 3:49, 3:51, and Beatrice Chebet, who closed in 56 along with Sifan and Faith. Tsegay, a 3:54 runner this season, couldn't hang. Cranny, who is around 3:59 or 4 I think, was WAY behind. Can't imagine anyone incapable of 3:55 making the 5k podium on the women's side

....

That's quite funny as Almaz Ayana never had sub 4:10 speed and was Olympic Champion at 10000m and World Champion at 5000m. SHE NEVER developed a kick.

Letsenbet Giday was always out kicked for Gold and in span of 1 year developed a kick ENOUGH to hold of 10000m best kickers to win Gold.

Neither of the forementioned runners ever produced sub 60 last laps but they showed it's possible to medal or win Gold without being a great kicker.

Yes it maybe a little harder for Alicia but as long as she continues to improve then she always have a chance. This year she closed her 10000m in 67 when the year before her best last lap was a 72 last lap.

Yes but Almaz Ayana had something that none of the other running stars have developed yet - the mental ability and strength to front run to victory from a long way out. Funny thing is that Gidey is almost Ayana version two with her ability to hold a fast tempo over long distances. But she currently lacks the confidence or mental toughness to replicate this in championship races. Tsegay proved she could front run a fast time when she won the Ethiopian trials in the 10k front running the last 5km totally alone. I think it was too hot to consider this in Budapest perhaps. anyway it’s all pie in the sky as we won’t see Gidey running track at Olympics or WC going forward. She’s committing to the marathon after attempting to take back her 5000m crown this Saturday in Berlin. I think she still hankers to be the first woman to hold the four WR at the same time, but as we know Kipyegon we’ll and truly torpedoed that!

She should stop heelstriking and she will be competitive

She is one of the first American women in years to be able to go out hard and try to stick among the best in the world. She does so consistently. She's picked up 3 US records this year, from 3k-10k, and is still only 25.

If you ever want a US runner to win a medal, you have to encourage them to keep going when they're close to the top. She's the best hope you have of medalling on the track in a distance event. Another year or two, and she may well be up there.

Consider that Hassan may go all in on an Olympic Marathon, some other African's may opt out of the 5 or 10. Also, US Marathon running is as strong as it's ever been on the Women's side, so she's not guaranteed anything there yet. But I'm sure when she does eventually move to the Marathon, she'll have more success after a solid 5-6 year career at the top of the world on the track.

Klecker on the other hand might be better placed to move up soon.

A housewife like FBK? Your anglo is showing.

Ayana was truly a spectacle and not afraid to hammer the pace early. At worlds in 2015, she ran her last 3k of the 5k final in 8:19 after a pedestrian first 2k, a time that would win most DL 3ks. She had already broken Dibaba by the final kilometer. The problem for Alicia is that she simply does not have the strength to pull away like that from the current crop of top pros. I’m curious as to why Gidey hasn’t tried a similar strategy recently, but in 2019 she made a long push for home and Hassan was STILL able to blow by her in a 3:59 last 1500. So seemingly the risk of pulling an Ayana is too big nowadays.

That should count as a win as she lost to a DSD athlete.

She's 25 years old. Let her run 2024 and 2025 world championships on the track, and then she can move to the roads in the Fall of 2025 when she's 27 years old

and less than 60 these days needs to be 56 seconds lol Damn

She just ran a 14:19. She's a track runner.