I am aware of this. You cherrypicked the best 5 seasonal ratings for 2020 NP, but not for the other teams you mentioned.
2020 NP best 5:
191, 191, 189, 188, 183
Average: 188.4
Spread: 8
Max/Min: 191/183
2019 NP best 5:
205, 193, 187, 185, 178
Average: 189.8
Spread: 27
Max/Min: 205/178
2019 GO best 5:
188, 187, 186, 186, 182
Average: 185.8
Spread: 6
Max/Min: 188/182
2014 FM best 5:
199, 194, 194, 189, 179
Average: 191.0
Spread: 20
Max/Min: 199/179
As you can see, when you look at them on even terms you can see how strong 2019 NP and 2014 FM were. It's also important to note, 2020 speed ratings had a high degree of uncertainty (Meylan himself said so). With no NXN, and questionable ratings, it's best to just drop 2020 NP into the HM category as a "what if".
For anyone curious, the average of the best 5 ratings for the top 10 teams:
2021 NP: 199.0
2022 NP: 196.6
2014 FM: 191.0
2015 GO: 188.6
2004 York: 191.4
2004 FM: 190.0
2019 NP: 189.8
2018 LV: 187.4
2019 GO: 185.8
2021 CM: 188.0
The only one that's out of place is 2019 GO (who I originally did not have on the list). They were very close with 2019 NP at California States and NXN, but I think in a field against these teams, their lack of top-end would really hurt them. If their results were in a normal season, 2020 NP would probably replace them. Saratoga 2005 did have a top 5 average of 189.2, and they beat a very good York team to win NXN that year. They are probably the best replacement, and would slot in somewhere around 2018 LV/2019 NP. 2013 Gig actually had a great top 5 average of 188.2, but their 5th guy being a 176 would put them dead last in that category of these teams (not a great look).
I may also be overrating 2015 GO and 2018 LV but they were both dominant squads strong through seven runners who won NXN (which puts them ahead of teams like 2004 FM and 2021 CM in my book).
There was a substantial gap between York and FM in 2004. No way should they be ranked adjacent to each other i any all-time list.
Saratogs 2005 was better than FM 2004 IMO, but that's a different argument.
FM's Federation meet would've won them NTN, and they scored 15 points at Manhattan. York ran their best performance of the season to win NTN, with a score of 97-127. Not a huge gap between those teams at all.
freekiprop wrote:
Are there any schools whose all time teams would average 199? Or come close by any other metric? I'm sure there are entire states that wouldn't.
Even with the recent deflation of speed ratings, I'd imagine 199 couldn't be matched
FM does it. Ryan 202, Gruenewald 202, Millar 199, Kimple 197, Hatz 196. 199.2 average.
York does as well. Sage 210, McNamara 203, Dettman 195, Achtien 194, Dettman 193. 199.0 average (Achtien and Eric Dettman may be higher at IL state meet, Meylan rated the race for his predictions but never shared the results, I'm going off of his NTN predictions).
Possibly any of the teams that have good programs and had an individual star or two like Rockford MI, Neuqua Valley IL, Arcadia CA, or Sandburg IL. Anybody that's qualified multiple runners to FL and/or been very good in the NXN era could have a shot at it.
I agree though that 199 average is going to last a long time as the national record. The key to speed ratings is how well you compare to the runners around you, and that NP team was incredibly dominant (when will we ever see a team go 1-2-3 at a national meet, including individuals?).
There was a substantial gap between York and FM in 2004. No way should they be ranked adjacent to each other i any all-time list.
Saratogs 2005 was better than FM 2004 IMO, but that's a different argument.
FM's Federation meet would've won them NTN, and they scored 15 points at Manhattan. York ran their best performance of the season to win NTN, with a score of 97-127. Not a huge gap between those teams at all.
freekiprop wrote:
FM does it. Ryan 202, Gruenewald 202, Millar 199, Kimple 197, Hatz 196. 199.2 average.
I believe you have the score incorrect. York scored 92 points at NTN 2004, and averaged 15 seconds faster than FM despite one of the Dettmans having an off-day. Those teams were NOT neck-and-neck.
In the for what it's worth department... FM gets a bit of a leg up by having ALL of their races speed-rated. Not sure of the others, but Kimple's 197 came in a season-opening mudfest (that I believe Meylan later pulled from his predictive stuff). He never approached that rating in a championship-level race.
FM's Federation meet would've won them NTN, and they scored 15 points at Manhattan. York ran their best performance of the season to win NTN, with a score of 97-127. Not a huge gap between those teams at all.
FM does it. Ryan 202, Gruenewald 202, Millar 199, Kimple 197, Hatz 196. 199.2 average.
I believe you have the score incorrect. York scored 92 points at NTN 2004, and averaged 15 seconds faster than FM despite one of the Dettmans having an off-day. Those teams were NOT neck-and-neck.
In the for what it's worth department... FM gets a bit of a leg up by having ALL of their races speed-rated. Not sure of the others, but Kimple's 197 came in a season-opening mudfest (that I believe Meylan later pulled from his predictive stuff). He never approached that rating in a championship-level race.
92, 97, not a significant enough difference. Eric Dettman had an off day, but the rest of their top 5 had their best race of the season. FM ran a completely average race, similar to Manhattan or the NY State meet, but significantly off their Federation performance (which would've scored them 60-70 points at NTN).
The second point is true, although I will add that the rest of those ratings came in big races that would've been speed-rated for many teams. They've got a few other runners at 194+, I stopped at Hatz but they would definitely be close to 199 average even without Kimple.
I believe you have the score incorrect. York scored 92 points at NTN 2004, and averaged 15 seconds faster than FM despite one of the Dettmans having an off-day. Those teams were NOT neck-and-neck.
In the for what it's worth department... FM gets a bit of a leg up by having ALL of their races speed-rated. Not sure of the others, but Kimple's 197 came in a season-opening mudfest (that I believe Meylan later pulled from his predictive stuff). He never approached that rating in a championship-level race.
92, 97, not a significant enough difference. Eric Dettman had an off day, but the rest of their top 5 had their best race of the season. FM ran a completely average race, similar to Manhattan or the NY State meet, but significantly off their Federation performance (which would've scored them 60-70 points at NTN).
The second point is true, although I will add that the rest of those ratings came in big races that would've been speed-rated for many teams. They've got a few other runners at 194+, I stopped at Hatz but they would definitely be close to 199 average even without Kimple.
There was no way that FM was going to score under 70 points at that race. No chance. That just doesn't pass the "say it out loud" test.
It's important to remember a couple of things. Speed-ratings were in their infancy in 2004. A lot of refinements we take for granted hadn't happened yet. Mr Meylan wasn't scaling the Manhattan results for the 4K distance, for example. He wasn't publishing out-of-region ratings. And he hadn't adjusted his "fits" to mitigate how much a muddy course (like Feds 2004) can skew the ratings. Also, the Manhattan team record, while impressive, was given way too much weight, in terms of national expectations. It's a mid-season race that not everybody runs, at an off-distance, that nobody peaks for - and nobody had any idea how Manhattan performances stacked up against non-NE teams.
York's top guy was touted as a potential FLNat champion. The Dettmans were touted as qualifiers. FM didn't have anybody at that level. York went at least 8-deep behind that top-3; they were just a better team. 92 - 127 and 15 seconds / man are significant margins.
What really ticked me off after the race was all the NY guys on the boards bagging on FM for not running well at NTN. That was crap. Gruenewald ran his best race of the year. So did McCann. The other guys might've been a few seconds off at most. That team deserved no grief at all. They were awesome.