Besides, OP said "threaten" not "beat". Also OP seems to imply "in his whole carreer". Jakob isn't even focusing on the 5k and already dominating 12:35-40 guys there. What do you think will happen when he shift his focus to the 5k/10k?
Jakob will be able to threaten all of those in his career. Maybe not beat them all but threaten for sure. So answer is : none.
Sorry. I meant to agree with 3k. He could threaten that.
“Dominating” a 12:35 dude in a 13:10 race is not dominating a 5k guy in a 12:35 race. Those other guys hadn’t run 12:40 yet.
If Jacob races Donovan Brazier in a 3:38 race he would get dominated every time. That doesn’t make Brazier a 3:26 dude by proxy.
In order of least likely to most likely
10000m
5000m
1500m
Mile
3000m
2000m
I'm not sure where the optimism for the 10000m comes from - we have no crystal ball on that distance for him other than his XC racing and I agree with the logic above - especially with respect to the 5000m.
I couldn't really decide between the 5 and the 15 and this would be the ones I could possibly swap if I saw him run 12.42/3 this year then I would think that's more likely than the 1500 where even after last weekend, that task of a second faster through 1200m and then even faster in that final 300 (which was as quick as he's gone in a fast race by some margin) just seems like a big one.
The mile is tough but not as tough as the 1500m and the extra 109m helps him here and with his strength he can cover that distance in 15.0 seconds. When El G set the record it was 3.28.2 en route and I could see Jakob running under 3.28 and then finishing out the race in the time he needs to do it.
3000m? He's nearly done it and arguably would have in a 3000m only race as he ran within a second of it after already running 218m at 58 second pace.
I have the 2000m as the most likely because right now, if he shows up in Brussels in his current form and possibly better post Budapest (unless he's super tired) he will do this. It's perfectly suited for him with his current 1500m ability. He could break this running 57.5 pace and then a 54.5 last lap (that's 4.44.5). And it makes sense - it's the most infrequently run distance so is the most underdeveloped record. I am as confident as I could possibly be he will be the world 2000m record holder come the first week of September.
Just opinion, nice question though.
(I left off the steeplechase - it's just so different an event and I don't think it's even in the wheelhouse of possibility he goes for that)
I'm not sure where the optimism for the 10000m comes from - we have no crystal ball on that distance for him other than his XC.
Here is where my optimism comes from for the 10000 :
Jakob has been running 120miles a week for years now.
He is a 7:20 3000 runner.
He has hugely dominated euro XC. You can say the competition is quite weak there. Compared to the World XC, i can't disagree BUT several things : XC should put him as a disavantage because weight is a handicap in mud/hills. A guy like Gressier (13:08/27:20, which could seems unimpressive in this discussion, but wait) is better at XC than track (back to back to back euro u23 champ), while Jakob is supposedly worse, and Gressier track PRs are already worst than his real level because ran in poor conditions (see monaco 5k upcoming). Jakob beat gressier by 19sec making it look like a jog and claimed he didn't even do one specific XC session.
Last but not least : despite focusing on the 1500m, he is better at the 3000. This, along with his relatively weak 800 ability, suggest that rather than a 1500-5000 guy, he is more of a slow twich guy who is just trying to lower as much as possible his 1500 PR when young, but who will eventually shine even more in longer distance.
To borrow a page from Ruxton Towers XC’s book, I think we need to define “threaten.” Does it mean coming within a second of the WR, within half a second, within a quarter-second? My answers to the OP’s question would vary based on which definition is used.
Also: Does the proximity to the record needed to be considered a threat increase for longer distances? If so, how? For example, when Bekele came within 2 seconds of matching Kipchoge’s then-2:01:39 marathon record, I think most of us would agree he threatened the record. But being within 2 seconds of the 1500 record, as Jakob already is, isn’t a threat in my mind.
May I propose that coming within 1.003 of a WR is “threatening” it? For the 1500 this would mean 3:26.61, or approximately the distance from the free throw line to the basket in basketball. I’d consider that a threat.
To borrow a page from Ruxton Towers XC’s book, I think we need to define “threaten.” Does it mean coming within a second of the WR, within half a second, within a quarter-second? My answers to the OP’s question would vary based on which definition is used.
Also: Does the proximity to the record needed to be considered a threat increase for longer distances? If so, how? For example, when Bekele came within 2 seconds of matching Kipchoge’s then-2:01:39 marathon record, I think most of us would agree he threatened the record. But being within 2 seconds of the 1500 record, as Jakob already is, isn’t a threat in my mind.
May I propose that coming within 1.003 of a WR is “threatening” it? For the 1500 this would mean 3:26.61, or approximately the distance from the free throw line to the basket in basketball. I’d consider that a threat.
100 - 9.609
200 - 19.247
400 - 43.159
800 - 1:41.21
1000 - 2:12.35
1500 - 3:26.61
Mile - 3:43.79
2000 - 4:45.64
3000 - 7:21.99
Steeplechase - 7:53.52
5000 - 12:37.62
10000 - 26:15.71
Half - 57:41
Marathon - 2:01:30
That seems plenty strict to me.
According to your definition :
2000-3000-5000 : he can already threaten. I don’t necessarily think he’s already in 12:34 shape but he can definitely run 12:37.6.
1500-mile : in the next year or two.
Steeplechase : He can absolutely threaten it if he trains just 3 months for it. He has some serious talent in the steeple and he already said he wanted to try to get that record one day.
10000 : I don’t think he can, maybe he runs 26:20 at some point in his career, but under 26:15 seems like a stretch.
Half : Just like 10000 I think he can get close some day, sub 58, but just not under 57:41
May I propose that coming within 1.003 of a WR is “threatening” it? For the 1500 this would mean 3:26.61, or approximately the distance from the free throw line to the basket in basketball. I’d consider that a threat.
100 - 9.609
200 - 19.247
400 - 43.159
800 - 1:41.21
1000 - 2:12.35
1500 - 3:26.61
Mile - 3:43.79
2000 - 4:45.64
3000 - 7:21.99
Steeplechase - 7:53.52
5000 - 12:37.62
10000 - 26:15.71
Half - 57:41
Marathon - 2:01:30
That seems plenty strict to me.
Steeplechase : He can absolutely threaten it if he trains just 3 months for it. He has some serious talent in the steeple and he already said he wanted to try to get that record one day.
You are making of him a superman ... in 3 months of train for the 3000m SC he will get 6 defeats straight from both El Bakkali and Girma.
Do you know that Girma is WR 7:23 indoor and El Bakkali spend the whole year at 1600m altitude training not only the techniques but also the mile?
Update.
I would also add that El Bakkali made a decision (with the approval of his parents) to quit his studies years ago. So Athletics is his main profession nothing else. That was the same case for El Guerrouj.
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
for those who think Jakob is only a 26:40 in the 10000 because of his size, think about what Solinsky ran. How big he was. And how much more talent Jakob has in comparison.
In my opinion you threaten a WR by going out in WR-tempo, and holding (or almost holding) the pace 3/4 out in the race in a way that make the spectators go wild into the last lap, holding they’re breath to see what’s in the “threateners” legs for the final surge.
for those who think Jakob is only a 26:40 in the 10000 because of his size, think about what Solinsky ran. How big he was. And how much more talent Jakob has in comparison.
Okay, I'm thinking of what Solinksy ran, and it was slower than 26:40.
Typing as a man who fell off a cliff past 5000m, I stand by my earlier post.
You will possibly be wrong as normally regarding your predictions about Jakob.
But luckily for you nobody will remember because it won´t happen soon.
When you boasted over predicting him loosing the 1500 final last year it was easier to remember that you also predicted he wouldn´t win the 5000m. YOU, however, never admitted this misjudgement.
Considering your bias you have possibly never predicted that Jakob would win any race so you must have been wrong MANY times.
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Your personal experiences at the local turkey trots are irrelevant when comparing to a world class middle and long distance runner.