Crosscountryweeklyguide wrote:
#1 Florida
(Powerhouse Valby) surrounded by UNM consistent scorers provides the right formula for a national title. Look for them to add one more piece to the puzzle. This team is scary good.
#2 Colorado.
Covert, Baran, herenstein, cook, Starliper make up an irresistible stampede for the buffaloes. They also have depth in 6th and 7th spot. I might have made a mistake not ranking them #1.
#3 Nc State
Yes, they have proven core but given the uncertainty of tuohy’s return #3 is generous. Henes only needs one surprise star to emerge and most likely she’ll find it.
#4 BYU
So many great athletes to choose from. Track season proved the the Cougars are quite remarkable in the area of depth. More possible talent can emerge from multiple places. Top 7 will give them wiggle room and provide them with strength.
#5 Utah
Led by Plourde and promising young talent this is the Utes time to shine. They will have to fight off a rigorous Pac 12 assault but they got what it takes.
#6 NAU
Experience combined with rising stars make the Lumberjacks a scary team to contend. Podium not of reach. Mike Smith has the team he’s been waiting for.
#7 Stanford
The talent pool is clearly there but can they peak at the right time and will their young stars produce under the changing climate from high school to college where many struggle to make the leap. Veteran experience still gives them enough to settle in the top ten.
#8 Oklahoma State
Dave Smith despite the loss of Cook will rebound. Can they find a hidden talent in their 1500m talent pool? My guess is yes. Taylor Roe coming back to true form gives them the foundation necessary to flourish.
#9 UNC the loss of Hansen will provide some discomfort but this team has proven the last couple years that a good result is always attainable when they step to the line. A very steady performance oriented team. They will be ready, they always seem to be ready.
#10 Notre Dame
The Irish always produced a produce a winning team. There is no reason to believe they can’t rise to the occasion again. People tend to overlook them at their own peril.
#11 Oregon
I expected more out of the ducks last year but one year later the massive pool of talent that continues to compound make them dangerous and provide a BYU feel of layers of talent. Can their 1500M runners make the leap to steady scorers? Yes!
#12 Virginia
A remarkable season launched the cavaliers into a top ten finish last year. Tatum David joining the team once again they look ready to take on all challengers. Appleton is a superstar who could contend for a title. NCAA Finals on their home course does not hurt their Chances.
#13 Washington
Much like Oregon they just lock and load with new firepower and depth. They can withstand injury by piecing together a deep bench. This team has so much upside potential.
#14 Toledo
A very exciting team didn’t deliver in the big race last year but a year of experience will help.
#15 Oregon State
Always in the mix, depth becomes an issue. I might have them ranked a little high brute force power in the top 3 make them intriguing.
#16 Arkansas
Don’t underestimate their winning culture and their youth’s steady progression. This team slowly building and moving in the right direction.
#17 Utah Valley
kemboi and the crew are full of belief and momentum. I’m fully bought in. The future is now! Utah valley is no longer the little sister of the Utah schools. They are here to stay.
#18 Michigan State
A team I thought was dangerous last year but I was a year early. This year no reason to believe they can’t breeze through their conference and poise a serious threat on the national level.
#19 Providence
A very strong team that hasn’t fully peaked yet. Very dangerous and performed well on a national stage last year. A lot of consistency in the upper tier of the top 1/4 of the results to be expected. I’m a big believer in the Friars upside.
#20 UCLA
The Bruins have some solid pieces. Barnett 44th nationals last year. Frias, freshmen of year ACC was a consistent factor with Duke. McDonell potential for breakout. Bottom two of McKaylie Caesar (Cal State Fullerton transfer) and Mia Kane both strong times in 5k track season near 16 minutes.
Florida should definitely make the national meet this year, but to go from a team that didn't advance out of regionals to national champs in one year is a big ask, regardless of their talent. Valby always has question marks with injury status but I am confident she'll factor once again for the win. Add in Thorner (40th), Mazza Downie (22nd), and Asekol (14th) and they have a lethal top 4, but they are giving shades of Alabama from last season with no apparent fifth. I think they'll podium but question marks surrounding their fifth runner will cost them the title.
Colorado is packed with talent and the usual immediate impact transfers, but their team is full of injury prone runners. Transfer Cook was 7th in XC and ran 15:24, but ran nearly two minutes off that at nationals (she was injured but even still, 2 min is huge) and might have trouble regaining fitness. Covert had a great 2022 outdoor season, running 32:30 and placing fourth at nationals, but she only raced once since XC nats, out for many months from injury (she did just run 15:53 though so starting to round back into previous form). Starliper the NC State transfer is extremely talented, but has been plagued with injury ever since she started college, and has only finished one season without injury (and it was great, 15:36 for 9th at nationals). Hertenstein had a blazing last XC season with her best race at Nationals, placing fifth. Since then she ran 4:13 in outdoor, but didn't make the national meet and was a bit inconsistent. Long story short if everyone is at their best form and healthy, I don't see anyone beating them, but a lot has to go right.
NC State is looking for their 3 peat, but this year might be tougher than previous ones. Sam Bush after her stellar 15th last XC season was a bit off in indoor, then picked up an injury outdoors. Tuohy, if she returns, needs no introduction. Same with Chmiel (also if she returns), who has always been consistent and strong especially in XC. They lose Mareno who stepped up huge last year, as well as Seymour (not sure if she has eligibility left). Tynnismaa placed 4th in the 5k a couple weeks back, and has been top ten twice at nationals, making her a lethal addition. As for their five runner, someone needs to step up, but they have a deep roster. Out of Quarzo (33:06 10k), Rauber (90th XC), Hartman (4:15, 15:49), and incoming freshman Napoleon (2:03, 6:19 2k steeple) & Putman (4:41 mile), someone should step up to fill the hole. If either Tuohy or Chmiel doesn't return, I don't see them winning.
Stanford always seems to be loaded with talent but falls a bit short on the XC side, but this year could be their year to podium. Jenks (15:33), Dudek (20th XC), Connolly (16:01, 33:19), and Dadamio (33:21) all are great runners. Add in incoming freshman Bunnage (8:51 3k, 15:20 5k!!!!) and Riggs (9:45 3200, 12th World U20 XC champs) and they just might have enough talent to surprise.
BYU always is loaded with talent. Halladay Lowry (34th XC, 5th 2023 steeple) & Hutchins (15:35) are all american caliber with a supporting group of Sargent, Davis, Fielding, Alder, and some great 1500 freshman Rohatinsky and Chamberlain. I just don't think their 3-5 is strong enough to win.
1. NC State
2. Florida
3. Colorado
4. Stanford
5. BYU
