I believe 3:29.66 for Willis. He was 3rd in the race, if I recall.
5th.
I’m pretty much with THOUGHTSLEADER here: yeah, it’s obviously better to run 1:45.8 than 1:46.3 as far as getting a nice 800 PR, but given the different splits in different races, the difference between these results is basically meaningless in regards to their 1500 fitness/US champs prospects. Splitting 53.38-52.97 is reason to believe Hocker will be comfortable running 1500m championship pace.
Its a weak field to begin with. A tactical race combined with some motivation coming back from injury could go a long way provided he gets out of the first round. Beyond that, dont get your hopes up too high until your eggs are hatched. No reason to do otherwise here. Cant believe JI name even comes up in this conversation. Twisted realities here.
I think Hocker makes the team. He has the best kick, today didn’t disprove that. USAs is never about who can drop the fastest time, it’s not going to be a 3:32 race, it’s going to be a tactical ~3:36 race, as always, which favors Hocker.
Having said that, I weirdly think there’s a higher chance of him having a shocker in the prelim rounds and crashing out early, than making the final and coming 4th (ie as long as he makes it to the final he should be good).
it's a good sign that he's fit and healthy but he needs to be at least a 1:45.00 runner to medal in the 1500
He does but Jakob doesn’t?
When you’re the guy controlling the race, running in the front, with insane aerobic fitness, just set the 2mile WR, tightening the screws—basically the guy everyone fears—you don’t necessarily need 1:44 speed to win. You just need the rest of the field to fear you.
Hocker doesn’t have that persona—Jakob does. So yes, Hocker would be much better off having better speed over 800 than Jakob.
When you’re the guy controlling the race, running in the front, with insane aerobic fitness, just set the 2mile WR, tightening the screws—basically the guy everyone fears—you don’t necessarily need 1:44 speed to win. You just need the rest of the field to fear you.
Hocker doesn’t have that persona—Jakob does. So yes, Hocker would be much better off having better speed over 800 than Jakob.
We are talking about getting a medal. There are many ways to skin a cat. Hocker is a 1:46 and 13:08 man (so far) who just turned 22. I don’t think Hocker is a likely medalist but his 800 pb is not the reason. If you can handle the rounds and stay poised you can medal sometimes when all the LetsRun fanboys will say you cannot because of your personal bests at other distances. Lagat and Hicham couldn’t medal either because they weren’t fast enough at 800m. But a funny thing happened. Neither one got the memo.
I think Hocker makes the team. He has the best kick, today didn’t disprove that. USAs is never about who can drop the fastest time, it’s not going to be a 3:32 race, it’s going to be a tactical ~3:36 race, as always, which favors Hocker.
Having said that, I weirdly think there’s a higher chance of him having a shocker in the prelim rounds and crashing out early, than making the final and coming 4th (ie as long as he makes it to the final he should be good).
He's tactically inept though.
Like Engels.
Hocker needs more racing with guys who have his ability. He leaves himself too far back.
If I'm having to bet on things, I'm picking Hocker to win USAs. Nuguse will have to do the work early and Hocker just gets the luxury of sitting. In a strange twist I can see Nuguse getting 4th. I know that's not the popular opinion, but USA championship racing lends itself more to Hocker than Nuguse. I see Hocker and Kessler going by Nuguse last 100m. Nuguse gets frustrated and gets nipped by a Gregorek/Prakel. If Nuguse makes the USA team, it's a whole different story come Worlds. Now he gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted and likely picks up a medal. This will be one of the biggest races of Nuguse's life in two weeks. It will tell a lot about his longer term trajectory.
I think Hocker makes the team. He has the best kick, today didn’t disprove that. USAs is never about who can drop the fastest time, it’s not going to be a 3:32 race, it’s going to be a tactical ~3:36 race, as always, which favors Hocker.
Having said that, I weirdly think there’s a higher chance of him having a shocker in the prelim rounds and crashing out early, than making the final and coming 4th (ie as long as he makes it to the final he should be good).
He's tactically inept though.
Like Engels.
Hocker needs more racing with guys who have his ability. He leaves himself too far back.
What you talking about? Did you watch all of his races in 2021? He’s made the final in all championships. , and has beat Centro and Nuguse. Hocker knows what’s he’s doing.
If I'm having to bet on things, I'm picking Hocker to win USAs. Nuguse will have to do the work early and Hocker just gets the luxury of sitting. In a strange twist I can see Nuguse getting 4th. I know that's not the popular opinion, but USA championship racing lends itself more to Hocker than Nuguse. I see Hocker and Kessler going by Nuguse last 100m. Nuguse gets frustrated and gets nipped by a Gregorek/Prakel. If Nuguse makes the USA team, it's a whole different story come Worlds. Now he gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted and likely picks up a medal. This will be one of the biggest races of Nuguse's life in two weeks. It will tell a lot about his longer term trajectory.
Terrible take. Nuguse doesn’t need to do any work early. He has a strong kick, can run just as fast at 800 as the other two and he’ll be more comfortable running 57s or 61s than anyone else. Plus, I think he’ll have confidence on his side because it’s so obvious he’s the best this year. Even if someone summons a better kick than him for the upset, Gregorek and Prakel won’t be in the picture. He qualified for the Olympics when he was a 3:34 guy, now he’s a 3:29.02 guy.
If I'm having to bet on things, I'm picking Hocker to win USAs. Nuguse will have to do the work early and Hocker just gets the luxury of sitting. In a strange twist I can see Nuguse getting 4th. I know that's not the popular opinion, but USA championship racing lends itself more to Hocker than Nuguse. I see Hocker and Kessler going by Nuguse last 100m. Nuguse gets frustrated and gets nipped by a Gregorek/Prakel. If Nuguse makes the USA team, it's a whole different story come Worlds. Now he gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted and likely picks up a medal. This will be one of the biggest races of Nuguse's life in two weeks. It will tell a lot about his longer term trajectory.
Terrible take. Nuguse doesn’t need to do any work early. He has a strong kick, can run just as fast at 800 as the other two and he’ll be more comfortable running 57s or 61s than anyone else. Plus, I think he’ll have confidence on his side because it’s so obvious he’s the best this year. Even if someone summons a better kick than him for the upset, Gregorek and Prakel won’t be in the picture. He qualified for the Olympics when he was a 3:34 guy, now he’s a 3:29.02 guy.
Why are the results all messed up? The results tab says 1:46.32. The splits tab shows 1:46.35. There's a bigger discrepancy for Dixon where one says 1:45.98 and the other shows 1:46.40.
If I'm having to bet on things, I'm picking Hocker to win USAs. Nuguse will have to do the work early and Hocker just gets the luxury of sitting. In a strange twist I can see Nuguse getting 4th. I know that's not the popular opinion, but USA championship racing lends itself more to Hocker than Nuguse. I see Hocker and Kessler going by Nuguse last 100m. Nuguse gets frustrated and gets nipped by a Gregorek/Prakel. If Nuguse makes the USA team, it's a whole different story come Worlds. Now he gets to be the hunter rather than the hunted and likely picks up a medal. This will be one of the biggest races of Nuguse's life in two weeks. It will tell a lot about his longer term trajectory.
So, off of an average 800 time, Hocker is in position to warrant your support of beating a recent American record holder thats not that far off of the defending Olympic Champion in recent races?
I can't believe that 1.46x is seen as an achievement for a 1500 runner. You would normally have to go back to the early 60's to see that being argued. Oh, I forgot - EPO changed all that in the '90's - since then the slowpokes seem to have dominated the 1500. Endurance is a wonderful thing.
Terrible take. Nuguse doesn’t need to do any work early. He has a strong kick, can run just as fast at 800 as the other two and he’ll be more comfortable running 57s or 61s than anyone else. Plus, I think he’ll have confidence on his side because it’s so obvious he’s the best this year. Even if someone summons a better kick than him for the upset, Gregorek and Prakel won’t be in the picture. He qualified for the Olympics when he was a 3:34 guy, now he’s a 3:29.02 guy.
I do think Nuguse *should* take over at 800 to go or 700 to go. He has a long stride and doesn’t have Hockers savvy in navigating packs with subtle moves. This strategy has also been fine for him in the past (runner-up at NCAAs). If he makes USAs remotely honest (~sub-3:36 and sub-1:50 last 800) it will likely be down to him, Teare, Hocker and Kessler. I can’t see Gregorek, Thompson, Waskom, Green or Prakel standing a chance. I also don’t believe Kessler would be positioned well enough to go by him, nor Teare explosive enough to get by even if in a good spot. So then it’s down to Hocker, where he should trust his superior fitness.
I can't believe that 1.46x is seen as an achievement for a 1500 runner. You would normally have to go back to the early 60's to see that being argued. Oh, I forgot - EPO changed all that in the '90's - since then the slowpokes seem to have dominated the 1500. Endurance is a wonderful thing.
Hocker is near (exceeding) his 2021 season fitness, in a year where he's not worn himself thin by racing a tonne indoors and outdoors, one championship to the next. He looks primed for a great meet and race on the day it matters two weeks from now.
