A closer look at Kenyan/GB performance in middle-distance between 90's and recent

1/So sub 1:44 800m guys are going to the roads? Right.

2/That's irrelevant. We're discussing middle-distance and why standards have fallen in Kenya, especially relative to other countries like GB, we're not discussing your scientific racist theories regarding aerodynamic Kenyan bodies and such.

3/True. There would be absolutely zero testing in Kenya during the lockdowns, given their financial constraints and the distances and transport problems which are often hard enough already. That's no doubt why we saw athletes like Ngeny emerge from lockdown and post 1:44 in his first ever 800m race, then never repeat it.

4/ So are you trying to say the population of the tribes that have 'special genes' hasn't grown for some reason? Sorry, I forgot which tribes your racial scientists here say are the natural born runners.

Kipsang whose best time last year (3:29.93) was on August 26 in Lausanne. You totally nailed it. Who can take your claims seriously when you constantly make up things.

And I accuse you mostly of being selective about the event(s) you want, the exact time cutoff, and so on. Including 2020 in any time period is obviously dumb.

What I hoped to demonstrate in my post is that contrary to what you’re trying to claim the current stable of Kenyan runners is quite strong. At 800-marathon. It is honestly great for the sport that at the 1500, Great Britain/Europe/Oceania are getting to as strong as they once were or even stronger as a whole. Nobody has seemed to delight in it as much as you, but where you seem to miss the point is assuming that it is due to a “level playing field” (your dog-whistle for Kenyans not cheating) as opposed to better coaching, training and development.

9 times between 1:43.84 and 1:46.03 since 29th May 2021. 800m results since 2018 on WA. Astonishing that someone can lie so unashamed again and again for years and pretend to be acting for the good of the sport. Shame on you.

This. 2020 should not be considered in any analytical review.

1) Right. If they are #12 in their own country on track there is no money for them.

2) We know from the days of Coe, Ovett, and Cram, GB always had the talent to run 800m/1500m/mile.

3) Also zero opportunity to race. Ngeny? He repeated in 2022 with a 1:44.05, in Nairobi.

4) I didn't say "genes". What is relevant is the training and development of the athlete population, not the increase in the country population.

OK, so let's compare 1997 (25 years ago) with 2022

1997 Kenya 19/60 9 under 1:44/3:33
2022 Kenya 13/60 4 under 1:44/3:33

1997 GB 1/60 1 under 1:44/3:33
2022 GB 10/60 7 under 1:44/3:33

Russia didn't exist as a nation? My history book says Russia existed in 1917, and then, after going through many changes, again in 1991. Your widely accepted date for the EPO-era is 1992, so Russia certainly existed as a nation in the EPO-era, according to you.

What's weird? It seems consistent to claim that the link to EPO has yet to be shown.

I am real surprised to see you chose 1:44.0 when two Kenyans ran 1:44.01 and 1:44.05 in 2022 (in a Trials race no less) to fractionally miss out. Also picking one of the slowest 800m years on the circuit ever.

1/ how do you know that the 12th best 800m runner decides that he can just move up to the 10K or the marathon and pick up easy cheques around the world? Seems ridiculous to me. This idea that 'talent is going to the roads' is a nonsense. Yes there is more of a financial incentive for Kenyan distance runners to train full time and compete for prize money on the roads around the world, and it might lead to some 5 and 10K talents leaving track, but it's ridiculous to suppose sub 1:44 talent 800m guys are deciding to compete in the Gothenburg marathon instead.

2/ Yes, and it's funny how GB declined as soon as EPO became available, and Kenya's suddenly shot up, and then when EPO testing in Kenya is finally ramped up, Kenya's performances decline, and GB's shoot up again.

3/ He took 6 seconds off his pb at age 25, running 1:43, in his first race of the 2021 season and has only come close to that once since.

4/ Of course population makes a difference. And you never take into account participation levels in your EPO comparison statistics. For example, it's ridiculous to suppose there were as many kids in 90's Russia encouraged to go into athletics as in the Soviet era.

Wrong, as always.

Mayock 3:31, Whiteman 3:32 in 97

19 Kenyans in top 60 800m and 1500m in 2023, also more than you have in 1997. And so on. Any number presented by the liar has to be checked.

Your fixation with Elias Ngeny and his times is weird. If you've ever watched the guy run, which I assume you have, he lays off the pace quite a bit and then tries to kick late. He runs a lot of 1:45s/1:46s as a result and has his fair share of high placings. He's never run on the Diamond League, so he'll often in Kenya/B-level European races splitting 52/53 in races for athletes who aren't trying to hit 1:43 or go with pacers running under 50.5. His two fast times are unsurprisingly in two races in Kenya where an athlete basically paced it out in 49/50flat and he and the whole field got dragged through.

Alternatively, I'm not sure why you think EPO would only work in the 800 or 1500, and conveniently ignore the Steeple, 5K, 10K, HM or Marathon.

Your focus on the 800 is also strange. Did Kenya not go 1-2 in the Olympics, 1-4-8 in last year's Worlds and have the Commonwealth Games Champ? That seems pretty good.

There's no question that Kenya's depth in the 1500 was a bit down in 2022. But this year, since May 27th (3 weekends ago), 6 Kenyans (Tim, Reynold, Brian Komen, Munguti, Amon Kemboi, Etiang) have won Silver or Gold Level 1500s in qualifying times for Budapest. There're 2 others who have run well under the QT in Kipsang and Keter in losses. As far as I can tell, the only 1500m specialist Kenyan competing in Europe who hasn't accomplished one of those two things is Justin Kipkoech (who finished 5th in a strong AK Weekend meet) who has run 8:13 for 2 miles and 3:34.5 for 1500. Not exactly bad, and it feels unlikely that every single good Kenyan at 1500 has gotten the opportunity just yet to get to Europe.

OK, he is counting top 60 performances here? For 2022 I count 30 top 60 performances by Kenyans in the 800m and 1500m combined. What's this 13 he lists? Just a complete fake number? You then can give 0 Coevett to support your "point" more drastically.

I'm not sure if the statistical war is resolving very much. Kenya has hardly disappeared as a dominant running nation and there has been some resurgence amongst the Europeans, as with Ingebrigtsen and some of the British runners. It is the Americans who seem to have trouble keeping pace at this level.

However my view is that although many more Kenyans are getting 'popped' for doping than anyone else currently, it doesn't seem to be acting as much of a deterrent to their doping, and doping will also be present in all the other top nations, who are quite a bit better at getting away with it. The sport now depends on doping, not just the Kenyans - although they do seem to be leading the pack in running busts, with Russia out of the equation for the time being.

This thread reminds me of the time Coevette stated that Europe was dominating Africa in the middle distances after the 1500 final had six Europeans and 4 Africans. Then just a couple days later the 800 final had seven Africans and just one European who's father was from New Caledonia. WHOP WHOP WHOP.

1) Simple economics. It doesn't pay anymore to place off the podium. We can see this withdrawal effect already after 2009, allowing Slo Mo to become 5000m and 10000m champion, as the better talented East African runners started skipping the track completely and going to the roads. GB athletes like Slo Mo can make a lifetime career and a lot of money running slow, but Kenyan athletes cannot even recover plane fare.

2) You noticed too that EPO seems rather decoupled from elite performance? It's not just GB, but all non-African nations from 5-continents combined for three EPO-fueled decades, failing to replicate and surpass, with a depth of three, what Coe, Cram, and Ovett did in the 1980s.

3) So "never repeat it" has now become "only come close to that once since". Once in 2021, and once in 2022, but not yet in 2023. Most every athlete has a breakthrough in their career.

4) You are just repeating what I said -- it's more relevant to count the number of "participating" athletes, and not the number of citizens. National populations can double, while national athletics participation can drop.

Embarrassing, really.

Yes - if there ever were suspicious athletes, then those 3 whose NRs stood for decades, and who competed before testing got serious (and partly while blood transfusions were legal, and even the most rudimentary out of competition test hadn't even started).

Coevett, you forgot to say that the British tradition already produced, some year before 1990, the following results :

800m :

Sebastian Coe 1'41"73 WR (1981)

Steve Cram 1'42"88 (1985)

Peter Elliott 1'42"97 (1990)

Tom McKean 1'43"88 (1989)

1500m :

Steve Cram (3'29"67) WR (1985)

Sebastian Coe (3'29"77) (1986)

Steve Ovett (3'30"77) (1983)

Peter Elliott (3'32"69) (1990)

Steve Crabb (3'33"34) (1987)

David Moorcroft (3'33"79) (1982)

John Robson (3'33"83) (1979)

Graham Williamson (3'34"01) (1983)

John Gladwin (3'51"02 Mile) (1987)

Tony Morrell (3'51"31 Mile) (1990)

But, in 2000, the best British in 800m was Anthony Whiteman with 1'45"81 with the second best time (1'46"52) by Andy Hart, and in 1500m was John Mayock (3'34"69) with only Whiteman other athlete under 3'35" (3'34"93).

So, in 2000 we had 24 Kenyans among the best 100 in the world (2 British), 30 in 1500m (5 British) and, if we look at 5000m, 35 Kenyans and 1 British (Kris Bowditch with 13'28"22 in position 97).

Can you explain the unbelievable downfall of the British middle distance in a period of 10 years, without speaking about big mistakes in the training metodhology, that on the contrary continued to improve in the African Countries, thank to the increased number of qualified coaches ?

The most ridiculous situation happened for Marathon. Great Britain had a big part in the history of the event, from the several WR of Peters, to Ron Hill running 2:09 in 1969, from Ian Thompson (he under 2:10 too) winning ECh in 1974 to Charles Spedding (2:08) till Steve Jones (2:07:13). With all this background, in 2003 the best Marathon Runner of Gret Britain was... Paula Radcliffe, no males were able to run under 2:15 !