4:05 is pretty fast. But Tuohy's best chance is to make it fast.
4:05 is fast - no doubt. I was responding to the person that said they’ll go faster than that. I don’t see that happening. I’m guessing a 4:08ish will take it with a big cluster between 4:08 - 4:10.
Interesting point. The Stride Report thinks that Plourde didn't make the final because when O'Sullivan went in front of her it broke her stride. So, there is some truth to what you are saying. O'Sullivan basically overcame 3 top runners (Plourde, Barnett, Tuohy) with physicality tactics. The supose other runners will have to adjust I guess.
From TSR
However, with roughly 250 meters to go, Plourde just couldn't navigate around the taller O'Sullivan who was already making a move of her own. Tuohy was opening up her stride while in the lead, allowing O'Sullivan (who had the inside rail) to navigate more easily in front of Ploude who was already trying to get around her PAC-12 rival on her outside shoulder. As a result, O'Sullivan got in front, Plourde's stride was interrupted and the chase pack behind her took advantage of her faltering momentum.
Yes I completely agree with their analysis. Navigating packs is difficult and O’Sullivan’s compact stride and her willingness to use physicality means that when she’s boxed she really isn’t. She can just squeeze in and the others may bounce off her. And then when she goes for the pass/cut-in that doesn’t look like it’s there, her stride is so strangely short it doesn’t impede to the level of a foul. I would not want her running right behind me on the rail that’s for sure
I’m not sure O’Sullivan’s tactics are any more aggressive than the ‘pushing, squeezing, and elbowing’ you’ll see from the other waifs. The difference is that she is so much bigger, and her compact stride works for maintaining her leverage in those situations.
It’s hard to pick against O’Sullivan. It’s like Makhloufi in the 2012 Olympic finals when Silas Kiplagat etc were just helpless against him. The physicality advantage is immense. If she’s gonna barge through and disrupt others’ races, they have to be that much better to withstand the wasted energy. I’m not even saying it’s illegal/wrong or whatever, but she is hard to ward off and will run the shortest line. It will be on Tuohy or Howell to run away from her because I think if it’s a packed-up race she’s getting to the front with the most in reserve.
She got 4th in PAC 12 champs. How did the other runners deal with her in that race?
It’s hard to pick against O’Sullivan. It’s like Makhloufi in the 2012 Olympic finals when Silas Kiplagat etc were just helpless against him. The physicality advantage is immense. If she’s gonna barge through and disrupt others’ races, they have to be that much better to withstand the wasted energy. I’m not even saying it’s illegal/wrong or whatever, but she is hard to ward off and will run the shortest line. It will be on Tuohy or Howell to run away from her because I think if it’s a packed-up race she’s getting to the front with the most in reserve.
She got 4th in PAC 12 champs. How did the other runners deal with her in that race?
Good question. Bad day? FastTuohy will find the video for analysis before me.
I’m not sure O’Sullivan’s tactics are any more aggressive than the ‘pushing, squeezing, and elbowing’ you’ll see from the other waifs. The difference is that she is so much bigger, and her compact stride works for maintaining her leverage in those situations.
So you've missed her virtually riding on the backs of runners in front of her then?
After the wrecking ball in the semis, any decent coach of a finalist is sharpening the spikes to a fine point, and giving crash tutorials on well timed mule kicks.
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead and make the field hurt. Howell accelerates quickly and will try to control the pace from the front. She is very talented. She will likely get a little help Jepkirui with that if given the opportunity. ITB & O'Sullivan will be near the front but will likely not try to dictate things. Someone who I thought looked really good advancing but is under the radar so to speak is Ramsden. They are all really solid though.
Like I said, this will be fun to watch... if Tuohy (or someone) makes it fast early this could go sub 4:05.
I just don’t see a sub 4:05. It’s going to be around 100° at race time. I expect a slow and tactical race. If it is sub 4:05 I won’t be surprised if Tuohy scratches the 5.
I didn't think about how hot it would be so you are probably correct... sub 4:05 may not be in the cards.
And don't get me wrong, I have no idea how the race will unfold. It certainly could be slow and tactical. I just don't think anyone is going to beat Howell or O'Sullivan unless they take it from the gun... but that's just my opinion, I've never been great about predicting future events!