Early ny state xc predictions?

Is Saratoga girls team going to win NXN again this year?
They are losing the Wheeler twins (both were scoring)
Lone Peak UT returns everyone
Niwot CO returns their 1-4 including some solid track times.

These comments are to make the person that started this thread happy, not just those that comment. So it’s called unselfishness, which is a valuable personality

They have 3 returning scorers... will need a couple of their 7th / 8th-graders to step up. They have an excellent feeder program, so I wouldn't bet against it.

For individuals, Jake gogarty is the states top returning two miler. He ran 9:07 (I think) after his shoe fell off in the rain. He will be a favorite, but he runs on a slow course at Sunken Meadow that will make his times seem unimpressive. Suffolk county has another intriguing guy in Jesse Augustine, who came second in steeple after starting way back. He hasn’t trained much this season after a knee injury messed him up. He has lots of room to improve.

They will need to have Berglund up there with Bush/Belisle/Hart, and also a 5th runner up with them

It’s crazy how a team that used to reload and make NXN every year became this much worse even with the same coach.

I don't have any direct knowledge of their program, but it seems from afar that Aris has been kind of mailing it in for a few years. He famously was quoted over a decade ago, stating "I don't recruit; I only coach the kids who show up." Now he actually did a great job with his boys last Fall - taking 2nd at Sectionals with that group was outstanding; they easily could've been 5th. But he no longer takes his team to any high-level meets (no McQ, no Manhattan), even though he still has high-level individuals that could benefit from the competition (and maybe be on the podium).

Is he still the head track coach? F-M is a soccer powerhouse; you think they'd have solid 400 / 800 guys coming out of their ears. They seem to have turnout problems there, too... and again, they don't go to high-level meets.

FM boys team did peak at sections last year. They would have qualified for state if they closed the 4-5 gap at sections or if Dereszynski was healthy. But their sections performance was the best they had all season. Only 3 of those varsity guys will be back though

There are also no guarantees that Beecher will be doing XC this year, since he has never done it before.
He does has a sister on the team though.
It’s also important to know that some of those people could possibly get injured.
Some of their varsity guys were injured last year. This team is so shallow now, that if one person gets injured, it will be average at best.

Just looking at where they are in June, I would say no. However, NXN is in December. They have 5+ months to get it together.

Section XI will be the best section with individual talent yet again this year. You have Jake Gogarty (Bay Shore) who ran 9:07 32 at states (Not as much of a cross country guy), Douglas Antaky (Smithtown West) who ran 9:13 at his state qualifier and is still relatively strong as a cross country runner, Jess-Joe Augustine (Mount Sinai) who was injured for the larger part of 2022 and didn't run cross but still ran 9:17 in the steeple, Trevor Hayes (Westhampton Beach) who was injured for most of cross aswell but still ran 6:07 2k steeple, and Brandon Cruz (Northport) who ran 4:19 this year. Team wise Northport will be strong with 3 freshmen sub 4:45 and Brandon Cruz and should be able to compete at the state wide level for yet another year.

On the girls side, it should be a battle between Bethlehem Central and FM again for second place at NXR. (Saratoga wins easily)
Bethlehem Central returns 4 of their top 5, in addition to:
L Kuhn - 10 - 10:35 3000
Bell - 10 - 5:07 1500
A Kuhn - 12 - 5:02 1500
Pachter - 12 - 11:02 3000 / 5:11 1500 / 19:28 5k XC
Harris - 12 - 11:32 3000 / 5:20 1500

The Kuhns haven’t run XC before. Don’t know if they will be doing it. But if they won’t be, Bethlehem still returns enough talent to compete for an NXN spot.

Corning might be a legitimate challenger on the girls side as well actually. They return:

Lawson - 11 - 4:43/9:47/138 rating (and an NXN qualifier)

Martinec - 9 - 5:08/10:47

Beres - 11 - 5:12/10:55/108 rating

Roche - 10 - 5:04/10:57

Grinnell - 11 - 5:02

Murch - 11 - 5:13/7:49 steeple

Lawson is the only standout but they have a lot of depth. Also not a school that regularly produces star underclassmen (like Toga) so a freshman running 10:47 means more there imo. The only school besides Toga to return four girls under 11:00 for 3k. They've never qualified on the girls side but in 2014 they were nationally ranked as high as #12 I think, too bad NY was so strong that year (FM, Toga, Shen, Suffern, Elmira, and Corning all got ranked at one point or another).

Correction: Northport also return four girls under 11:00, but their next best returner who did XC ran 5:17 and 11:29. They did have a freshman run 4:59, if she does XC then I would say they are the favorites for that second spot with 9:59, 10:09, 10:32, 10:49 and then that 4:59 girl.

Wow, first 3 on the team are from the same family

Arlington does return 5 guys under 16:40 in the 5K, which is really good