Failed sub3 Marathon: Bad day or Bad training?

You clearly have the speed/top end, but equally obvious NOT THE ENDURANCE or readiness to HOLD PACE.

As most have noted....51 miles/week with a long run of "only" 20 miles is really NOT THE SOLUTION for holding pace from 20 miles to the finish line.

NEGATIVE SPLIT truly LONG runs, e.g. over 26 miles even are GUARANTEED to get you comfortably under 3 hours.

TRY working in your next prep cycle 3 truly LONG runs starting at 23 miles then 26 miles 3 weeks later then 28 miles after another 3 weeks, and your GOAL MARATHON another 3 weeks out from that last long NEGATIVE SPLIT ENDURANCE SESSION.

FORMAT: First half of each successive LONG RUN at a pace of 30 seconds/mile SLOWER than goal marathon pace (GMP) or about 7:00 min/mile. At the half way point (flat out and back course is ideal for these sessions), take the effort level and pace down to 6:40 min/mile over a gradual effort pick up from the half way point to 8 miles to go, e.g. 6:55 min/mile then 6:47 min/mile, then 6:40 min/mile and HOLD THAT FOR THE LAST 5-6 MILES.

ON "race day," go out at 6:55 min/mile AND NOT ONE SECOND FASTER for the first 13 miles, and from the half way point to the FINISH LINE be looking at the runners ahead and ....reeling them in one after another. Each runner you pass becomes a mental reward and the next runners in front your next ...target to run down.

YOU have much more BASIC SPEED than I ever did and I have logged 137 total marathons, more than 30 sub-3 hour finishes, a 2:41 marathon PR (San Francisco) and run 5 hours 57 minutes for 50 miles ...finishing the last 5 miles that day at 6:40/mile pace. I still do a little pro bono coaching and I recently got a 50 year old "well under 3 hours" after on his own he had stalled at 3:07. Women's Teams I have coached have WON the Team Title 3X in the open and 2X in the master's at Boston and also the NATIONAL Marathon Team Championship!

Man you should be delighted with this time. Improving from 3:40 to 3:07 is a huge improvement.. Well done!!

I've only run one marathon as I mainly ran track and XC, but back in 1997 pre-carbon, gels and GPS, I ran 2:43. At time, I'd been averaging 50+ mpw for about 7 years.

Looking at what you've written, I'd suggest you are very capable to run sub-3, but I think you probably need to run more mileage and definitely need more long runs. It's all about the base!

Good luck with the next one.

I had the opposite experience, only a 1:30 half, but a 3:02 full (on high mpw)

Same training, but at least four 20-milers.

Next time:

-Average 50, and peak at 60-70. Mileage is King for the marathon.

-Don't race your half 4 weeks out ("feeling recovered" doesn't mean your "race-ready, recovered"). Run it 6-8 weeks out (time trial if no race).

-Make 20-milers the norm leading up to the race, not a stretch. Do more of them. Consider one or two up to 22-24, 4 weeks or further pre-race.

-Do long tempos and very long intervals at or around marathon pace. Very long!

You ran a 1:18 and converted that to 3:07. I ran a 1:26 last year and converted that to a 3:05 in perfect conditions (also, failed sub-3:00 attempt). I would bet you I'm older (almost 50, male) with less natural talent than you, but I ran twice as many miles as you, over ten 20-milers (a few 22-24) and many of them with up to 10 miles at MP. (But careful not to overtrain, though, which I did this year and bombed out with a 3:25, albeit in 77F heat and full sun).

Your 1:18 should be a lock for a 2:52 (definitely sub 3:00) with more mileage, more 20-milers, more race-pace work and a good taper where you don't leave your race in your training.

Consider Pfitzinger's 70 mpw plan, but add some extra race-pace mileage at the end of the long runs. Or just do what you did and add mileage + 20-22 milers. Lot's of good suggestions above, from other posters.

A lot of good advice and I tend to agree with not overcomplicating things and mostly looking to increase overall mileage and mileage at MP. I would keep your training plan well rounded and not totally shift to longer MP and tempo workouts at the expense of actual speed work. Keep some true speed work in there, esp since that seems to play to your strengths.

You may have the endurance but maybe not the mechanics. Just something to think about. All my shorter race distances suggested 2:45ish was very reasonable, but my PR is 2:58 and I ran a lot of ugly marathons, even while working with a coach who got me to some awesome trail performances, so I know I was fit.

Either way, consistency and volume will benefit you by building aerobic endurance and helping to improve your running economy. I think you're close so tweak your training, don't completely overhaul it.

With a 1:18 half, 40 mpw with a peak to 50 mpw are sufficient to break 3 for most people.
I agree that probably ramping up to 50 mpw with a peak at 60 will make sub3 a walk in the park. In this specific instance, I suspect that you may have peaked too early and basically run you race in the half-marathon; you then run two pretty hard long runs and, by the time you got to the marathon, you were toast.
My advice would be to ramp up your mileage a bit, but also do not race hard in a half marathon 4 weeks out. If you want to run a hard half marathon, do it 5 weeks out and do not throw in the two hardest long runs of your training cycle in the two weeks afterwards.

The OP mentioned he struggled with his LR between the tune up half race and the marathon. This made me think he’s overtrained/overreached. That is why I think increasing mileage may not be the best idea. If he already struggled with the lower mileage. Increasing it will only make it worse. That is why I said it is very important to run a short race to check fitness level. If as many said, endurance is what he lacked to run well in marathon, then he has no reason not to run a short race with equivalent time to his 1:18 half. On the other hand, if he’s unable to do so, that will be indication of overtraining/overreaching or fitness drop due to other reasons.

This will give you an idea of where you are at marathon-wise. If your mileage is low (which it is) it will probably show you are around a 3:10-3:15 with the optimal marathon being something like 2:48.

This may help you focus your training.

I just averaged 36mpw for 14 weeks and ran 2:39

If you can run 1:17 half lack of mileage is not the problem.

I finished 5th in my AG at NYC off of about 50k/week.

What most people get wrong is the carbo loading:

10 grams of carb/kg the 24 hours before, ending 4 hours before start time.

It's a lot of carbs and more than most people realize.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Carbohydrate loading in human muscle: an improved 1 day protocol - PubMed

It is generally acknowledged that even without a glycogen-depleting period of exercise, trained athletes can store maximal amounts of muscle glycogen if fed a carbohydrate-rich diet for 3 days. What has never been examined is...

Link:pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12111292/

Maybe it was a bit of both (low mileage and overtraining in the last month)?

Looking back I realize I may have overreached in the last month of training with this all out half and the two hard long runs. I thought I recovered in a week but I probably didn’t. However I was totally confortable with the mileage before the half. I probably shouldn’t have raced it all out if I wanted to have my best marathon but legs good so I just went fort it, no regret

There are some people who can run low mileage and crank out great times in the marathon. They are generally outliers and I would bet that many of them could perform much better at the marathon with more mileage in training (i.e. they are kind of sandbagging it at the marathon with goal times that are too slow for their ability).

For everyone else, it takes time to build up the adaptations to be able to run a fast marathon. With every 20+ mile long run, you will build more endurance and your muscles will become leaner and lighter as they adapt to the distance. There are no magic formula training plans or set number of 20+ mile long runs that are required for a sub 3 marathon. But you will need more mileage and more 20+ long runs before your next attempt at sub 3. Just find a training plan that you think is doable and take another shot at sub 3. And be patient with yourself. It is very intimidating to be out on the course for 2+ hours and to know that if you finish in 3:00.01 it will be a complete waste but 2:59.59 will be an epic victory. That stress can make for a bonk or two. But keep at it and you will get there (and beyond).

Not if you are 1:18 guy off low mileage.

I never ever waste my time on much more than 70-80km/wk...for me it was always being injury free, almost all the time. The consistency counts more than fluctuating high miles.

Then, as I said before, rather undertrained and fresh, good mental state, good race prep and race management, and relaxing especially in first half....than fit, over trained and wasting your training on the day.

Just saying, because I can pull out my times and the amount of proportional conversions. At state level for me , and much much younger, it required 110-120km/wk to get to 2:20's, but the OP is not gunning for that. He could possibly get there though, very low 1:10's HM, can get a sub 2:30

If you need 120km/wk for sub 3 when already a 1:18 hm of much lower, then where is his true potential?

Yes I think this maybe should be clarified by the OP. What’s the end goal here? Is it to break 3? To run as good a full as your half? Run to your maximal potential? I think a lot of posters are answering to question no 2 and a few to no 3. How big a mileage jump you make and how many long runs you should do kinda depends on what you’re targeting. But if you’re running 1:18 on quite low mileage you are talented and running great with the workload you’re doing. I think you can do just a little more to achieve sub 3, but if you’re after sub-2:50 or your best performance yes you’ll need to build up

This one easy. Either you had an off day or your mileage is too low to help you not bonk later. 1:18 half should gave you easy sub 3. Literally easy.

The obvious thing is that you haven't done enough mileage. Others may perform better off less (though they're in the minority), but you obviously do not.

The next thing that stands out is how big your long runs are in proportion to your weekly mileage. If you're doing a 20 miler, that's almost half your weekly volume in one run. Now I know you might think that you can make up for lack of weekly volume through specificity of workouts, but this is just too much. You are not robust enough to handle such workouts. I'm not surprised you felt terrible in this run and the next, as the recovery time for a workout like this would be a lot longer for a low mileage runner. You were probably still carrying the fatigue from these runs into your marathon.

I know it seems counter-intuitive - but the more mileage you do, the quicker you recover from bigger sessions (provided you've built up gradually).

There's an easy way to tackle this:

1. Do more weekly volume.

2. Your long run shouldn't exceed 1/3rd of your weekly mileage.

3. You don't need speed, you need endurance. Therefore, ditch the Marathon pace at the end of your long runs and just focus on time on feet. If you must, you can run at a steady effort (30-50 seconds a mile slower than MP), but your main priority is to get the volume in without flattening yourself.

Agree with most posters on here, just throwing in once extra piece from personal experience: when your aerobic base is good, the half marathon 4 weeks out is much less risky than when you are low mileage. I've run 1:20 off 45miles/week when I was training for track, and also 1:20 off 60miles/week training for a trail race. It felt much better off low mileage thanks to the speed training, but it took way longer to recover. Even 3 weeks after, I was struggling to hang on to my usual teammate. When I ran the same time off high mileage, it was much less comfortable running half marathon pace, but I was able to run a normal workout + long run the next week. Thinking something similar might happen to you after you increase mileage. Good luck.

Jack Daniels I think recommends once month increasing your mileage by 1 mile for the number of times you run e.g. if you run once a day every day, then you can increase your mileage by 7 miles every month. This applies up to a maximum of 10 miles.

Stay positive, stay consistent and you should be able to achieve sub 3. I remember when I was 18 and folk cautioning me about running too much when I was running about 3/4 times a week. You need to know yourself what is manageable and perhaps other runners who you can trust.