World Triathlon Individual Olympic Qualification Ranking Paris 2024 (americans):
1 Taylor Spivey
10 Taylor Knibb
15 Kirsten Kasper
24 Summer Rappaport
0 Gwen Jorgensen (her world triathlon rank is 354)
This may appear catastrophic for Jorgensen. It isn't. She can jump up many athletes in rankings in a season. It won't be easy, as she'll need to travel A LOT to chase ranking points to panic-rank (while sacrificing her family).
Process for making the team
Likely, two spots will be automatic qualifiers at two different races. A third spot will be discretionary based on results during the qualifying period. If the auto criteria is not met for the two auto spots (top 8 or better believe), then they will also become discretionary picks by USAT.
Chances at making the team
1st auto spot: Taylor Knibb will take one of the auto spots outright. She is that strong on the bike, she can dictate races anyway she wants off the front. She will get help to extend the gap on the bike from Duffy, Kingma, Coldwell, Spivey, or others. Knibb will grab the first spot and not risk it.
2nd auto spot: The other auto spot.... This is the big unknown. The time is there to get her rank up. She would need to crush BIG TIME this year.
But the reality of the sacrifice it will take is more difficult to weigh.
As this 2023 season wears on, she may readjust her life priorities, with two kids and a gold medal already. It is doable but it will be more challenging with the pull of her family now and the rough (very lame) lifestyle as a pro triathlete..... constant travel hassles, bike cases, breaking down and building up your bike for every race and bringing a ton of stuff on flights. It is ridiculous and cumbersome. The financial reward is about nill. It is blue collar stuff and not at all pampered. Comped hotel is about it.
If her fitness whips up, she could get this auto spot. I don't see any reason right now to think she can beat Spivey or Rappaport. Spivey is a very strong swim, bike, and runner. Rappaport a top swimmer who is getting better at bike handling but is already a great runner. Old Gwen would run either of them down. She is not old Gwen. Not yet.
3rd discretionary spot:
USAT will look at all races during the 2 year qualifying period to make this pick. If Gwen is on the up, and really getting some momentum by 2024, and the lifestyle hasn't broken her, this is her chance. She will need to get picked over others who never left triathlon, and sadly it is completely possible.
Chance at medaling if she makes the team:
I would concur, basically zero. The sport has super runners (if there is a large group off the bike). Beth Potter will be VERY scary by 2024. Potter broke the 5k RUNNING WORLD RECORD on the road (not ratified but the course was legit distance, confirmed by many). She will do serious damage this season. Old Gwen did not break any running world records. Neither did running-only Gwen. And the sport has uber bikers that will risk breaks to get away but who can also run fast off very hard bikes. american Taylor Knibb being one. Duffy, Coldwell, GTB, Spivey.
This should give you an idea of how hard it would be for Quigley to make this team if the "best triathlete in history" will have a hard time making it. Quigly has an even lower rank than Jorgensen who, herself, is essentially invisible right now in rankings.