2 years ago was omnicron, before that covid, before that super shoes weren't fully adopted. Last year was the first real full year with everyone using super shoes. It is the shoes
TL: DR; partially psychological (aka, no competitions for a year and a half made people hungry) and partially physical (fewer competitions. plus hard workouts only completed solo lead to fewer injuries. you know how practice can be "competitive" sometimes).
I have a theory, I think it's because *people are hungry for competition* after Covid restrictions. Some people were just coming into their own/peaking and so that lit a fire under a lot of people to really accomplish. It's like year after year of competition makes the competitions "less special" in a way, if that makes sense...Competing year after year (since junior high school) can wear on a person. IMO.
with covid restrictions, elite runners got a break from the 'ol grind and the pressure (since their middle school days, for some of them) and they're hungry: they also feel like they "missed out" for a year-and-a-half. at least I would!
Possibly too - there's less injuries (someone correct me if I'm wrong. this is just my opinion) because there were so many competitions canceled. elite athletes took a little rest, which lead to fewer injuries.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
if it is the shoes why aren't we seeing this increase with women runner's?
Exactly. At one point, all we saw was a boost in performance in male, 16-19 yo. This was the case a year and a half ago. I posted to that effect on a thread or two, (at least one of which seemed obviously started by Nike). If shoes are speeding you up by some outlandish amount such as a minute in a mile, 15 minutes in a marathon, or whatever outrageous claims were being thrown around last year/year before, then why haven't average times come down across various demographics? Doesn't Mary Decker still have ARs? Genzebe's times are not being made a mockery of by 73 runners in a single high school meet.
if it is the shoes why aren't we seeing this increase with women runner's?
Exactly. At one point, all we saw was a boost in performance in male, 16-19 yo. This was the case a year and a half ago. I posted to that effect on a thread or two, (at least one of which seemed obviously started by Nike). If shoes are speeding you up by some outlandish amount such as a minute in a mile, 15 minutes in a marathon, or whatever outrageous claims were being thrown around last year/year before, then why haven't average times come down across various demographics? Doesn't Mary Decker still have ARs? Genzebe's times are not being made a mockery of by 73 runners in a single high school meet.
to be fair, Alicia Monson just broke her outdoor 3000 American record indoors, which was from 1985. Alicia's mentioned in the above list for the 3000m.
All but one poster is missing the biggest reason: 6th year athletes. Yes, shoes have had a huge impact (not just for performance improvement, but their impact on injury reduction has allowed many guys to train consistently who would otherwise have been battling injuries).
But by far more important than that is the fact that dozens of top guys have stayed in the NCAA. Let’s say 15 of the top 50 guys in an event are 5th years who have a remaining year of eligibility. 10 of them choose to stick around for their sixth year. They get another year to get better, and a new cadre of 5th years fills in behind them. You now have 25 5th- & 6th-years rather than the pre-COVID 15 5th-years. 10 extra dudes at peak fitness. 10 dudes dropping a couple seconds in the mile, five seconds in the 3k, etc.
So of course the NCAA is way more competitive at the top.
A way to test these assumptions would be to see if times have improved as dramatically for freshman/sophomores compared to pre-COVID years as they have for the top 50 or so guys in the NCAA. My money is that they haven’t.
The obvious is being overlooked. Microdosing and other unnatural methods of winning are in full swing. Let’s not all be so naive. It starts even in high school let alone NCAA and obviously pro
If it's the shoes then why are the indoor throw events also seeing this increase in performance?
2013-14 weight throw 50th mark = 19.63m
2021-22 weight throw 50th mark = 20.61m (4.99% increase)
2013-14 shot put 50th mark = 18.15m
2021-22 shot put 50th mark = 18.61m (2.53% increase)
The spikes may help marginally but I'm not aware of any technical advances in throwing that would lead to such a massive change. Suggests that something else is at play.
Shoes. Yes, they were starting to run fast 2 years ago. Go check the times. Also, not everyone had the spikes. Now they do. Don’t kid yourself. It is spikes 100%. Not even an argument.
All but one poster is missing the biggest reason: 6th year athletes. Yes, shoes have had a huge impact (not just for performance improvement, but their impact on injury reduction has allowed many guys to train consistently who would otherwise have been battling injuries).
But by far more important than that is the fact that dozens of top guys have stayed in the NCAA. Let’s say 15 of the top 50 guys in an event are 5th years who have a remaining year of eligibility. 10 of them choose to stick around for their sixth year. They get another year to get better, and a new cadre of 5th years fills in behind them. You now have 25 5th- & 6th-years rather than the pre-COVID 15 5th-years. 10 extra dudes at peak fitness. 10 dudes dropping a couple seconds in the mile, five seconds in the 3k, etc.
So of course the NCAA is way more competitive at the top.
A way to test these assumptions would be to see if times have improved as dramatically for freshman/sophomores compared to pre-COVID years as they have for the top 50 or so guys in the NCAA. My money is that they haven’t.
Yep. Covid year is still messing with the results. A quick search finds that the top indoor mile times (2 guys from Washington) are 5-6th year SRs due to Covid.
All but one poster is missing the biggest reason: 6th year athletes. Yes, shoes have had a huge impact (not just for performance improvement, but their impact on injury reduction has allowed many guys to train consistently who would otherwise have been battling injuries).
But by far more important than that is the fact that dozens of top guys have stayed in the NCAA. Let’s say 15 of the top 50 guys in an event are 5th years who have a remaining year of eligibility. 10 of them choose to stick around for their sixth year. They get another year to get better, and a new cadre of 5th years fills in behind them. You now have 25 5th- & 6th-years rather than the pre-COVID 15 5th-years. 10 extra dudes at peak fitness. 10 dudes dropping a couple seconds in the mile, five seconds in the 3k, etc.
So of course the NCAA is way more competitive at the top.
A way to test these assumptions would be to see if times have improved as dramatically for freshman/sophomores compared to pre-COVID years as they have for the top 50 or so guys in the NCAA. My money is that they haven’t.
Yep. Covid year is still messing with the results. A quick search finds that the top indoor mile times (2 guys from Washington) are 5-6th year SRs due to Covid.
Alan
I guess that explains all the HS fast times last year too.
If it's the shoes then why are the indoor throw events also seeing this increase in performance?
2013-14 weight throw 50th mark = 19.63m
2021-22 weight throw 50th mark = 20.61m (4.99% increase)
2013-14 shot put 50th mark = 18.15m
2021-22 shot put 50th mark = 18.61m (2.53% increase)
The spikes may help marginally but I'm not aware of any technical advances in throwing that would lead to such a massive change. Suggests that something else is at play.
Lol - nice try. There is absolutely no indication that the throw performances are increasing like the distance events. Not sure where you're getting the above marks. Doesn't matter anyway because you're only comparing two seasons. But here is what IAAF has:
US Men's Shot Put Indoor:
'23 - 50th mark - 18.01m
'22 - 50th mark - 18.57m
'21 - 50th mark - 18.17m
'20 - Covid
'19 - 50th mark - 18.58m
'18 - 50th mark - 18.61m
'17 - 50th mark - 18.31m
'16 - 50th mark - 18.54m
'15 - 50th mark - 18.44m
'14 - 50th mark - 18.54m
'13 - 50th mark - 18.30m
US World Shot Put Outdoor:
'23 - 50th mark - 19.48m
'22 - 50th mark - 19.77m
'21 - 50th mark - 19.87m
'20 - Covid
'19 - 50th mark - 19.75m
'18 - 50th mark - 19.64m
'17 - 50th mark - 19.55m
'16 - 50th mark - 19.48m
'15 - 50th mark - 19.63m
'14 - 50th mark - 19.55m
'13 - 50th mark - 19.52m
Contrast this with US Men's Indoor 5000m times:
'23 - 50th time - 13:42.35
'22 - 50th time - 13:45.80
'21 - 50th time - 14:07.89
'20 - Covid
'19 - 50th time - 14:13.60
'18 - 50th time - 14:21.52
'17 - 50th time - 14:19.29
'16 - 50th time - 14:18.95
'15 - 50th time - 14:18.23
'14 - 50th time - 14:17.86
Going back to 2000 the fastest year for the 50th time prior to super shoes was 2019 at 14:13. The next fastest year was 2012 at 14:16. Both of these years are over 30 seconds slower than this and last year.
US Men's Outdoor 10000m:
'22 - 28:35.17
'21 - 28:44.68
'20 - Covid
'19 - 28:56.02
'18 - 29:15.24
'17 - 29:15.24
'16 - 29:01.62
'15 - 28:59.13
'14 - 29:08.24
'13 - 29:20.66
'12 - 29:03.67
'11 - 28:59.85
Going back to 2000 the fastest year for the 50th time prior to super shoes was 2015 at 28:59.13. The next fastest year was 2009 at 28:59.16.
There is nothing at play here other than shoes. Spikes were introduced around 2019. Threw out Covid year because there are just too many variables. By 2021, a lot but not all were wearing the spikes. Went to a collegiate meet in 2021 and around 80% of the distance athletes had some sort of super spike/shoe on. I would say nearly everyone is wearing them now. Performance increases are nearly identical across the board for US Men's and Women's performances. Performance really took a dramatic turn around '21 and have just gone up from there.
its 90% footwear across racing and training. 10% other things. Every argument against footwear is incredibly weak.
I would say the arguments FOR the shoe theory are weak. As pointed out above, only a narrow demographic is noticeably faster than before. Male, under 25, in the US, and significantly below the top pro level (for example, those who set WRs). The hype is all abput NCAA men. One track. One meet, really. Absolute world records (as T&FN lists them without regard to indoor vs. outdoor) are not falling at any unusual rate. The longer ones where wavelight has an enprmous benefit have come down slightly over the last few years.
Komen's outdoor records are still standing. So are El G's. Jakob isn't suddenly seconds faster this indoor season than he ever has been before or than anyone in history. Hassan certainly isn't. NCAA men are. With the exception of Tuohy, that's it. A bunch of sub-elite guys who have never passed a drug test nor come close to a WR, and one gal who hasn't either. Npbody else. If it were the shoes the effect would be universal.
its 90% footwear across racing and training. 10% other things. Every argument against footwear is incredibly weak.
I would say the arguments FOR the shoe theory are weak. As pointed out above, only a narrow demographic is noticeably faster than before. Male, under 25, in the US, and significantly below the top pro level (for example, those who set WRs). The hype is all abput NCAA men. One track. One meet, really. Absolute world records (as T&FN lists them without regard to indoor vs. outdoor) are not falling at any unusual rate. The longer ones where wavelight has an enprmous benefit have come down slightly over the last few years.
Komen's outdoor records are still standing. So are El G's. Jakob isn't suddenly seconds faster this indoor season than he ever has been before or than anyone in history. Hassan certainly isn't. NCAA men are. With the exception of Tuohy, that's it. A bunch of sub-elite guys who have never passed a drug test nor come close to a WR, and one gal who hasn't either. Npbody else. If it were the shoes the effect would be universal.
Cheptegei and Gidey set the 5k and 10k WRs outdoors in the new shoes. 3K indoors broken by two guys last weekend. Ingebrigtsen 1500 WR. There are some reasons those 90s, early 2000s times have not been approached, but we all know them.
College times have much more depth due to more participants than world class. So looking at 50th time or NCAA qual times is a pretty good measure. The times clearly got faster with the shoes. The times are coming from multiple tracks - all of which existed before the shoes (ex: 8 WA guys break 4 in one race in WA). Coaches did not drastically change methodology or have a large turnover. HS time did not get drastically faster BEFORE 2020. Number of 6th year seniors does not account for the increase in sub 4 / sub 8 / sub 13:50 difference from a few years ago (2-3X).
The shoes had a dramatic effect in the Marathon. Why are people so loathe to believe the same can be true on the track?