Most likely WR to go down in Lievin on Wednesday

If Fisher is going to do what he did at Worlds and just follow people and get out-kicked or has he learned from that so that he presses hard mid-race or throws in some killer surges or does something else to break the field before the final 200 or so? If he runs the way he has in the past, maybe he gets the WR, but someone else will out-kick him and get a faster WR. If he's learned and he's ready to mix it up before the final 200, then things could get interesting. I'll bet he gets out-kicked again, hope I'm wrong.

The three names don't have finnish speed.

I would dream of a great Kenyan runner but Krop (*) is not "that guy" (even aged 21).
Katir is unpredictable.

(*) Judging from the way he run and end his races in several occasions.

He has to find someone to pace him for 7:28 as has done perfectly Berihu Aregawi last year:

This kind of Finnish speed?

Anyway if the pacers fulfill their assignment (4:58 at 2k) it’s going to be less a matter of finishing kicks and more who’s prepared to run a really fast time. Based on Fisher’s 2022 indoor opener (12:53 with 4:59.97 for the last 2k) and the simple fact that he’s entered in this race, I figure he’s ready to run fast. I’m guessing 7:28.24 figures somewhere in his mind, since he’d probably like to reclaim the title of fastest American at 3k indoors or out.

Just because Fisher didn’t try to run away from the best in the world in the WC 5k doesn’t prove he’s unwilling to lead in the last 800 of a race like this. I predict he’ll break the rest of the field in the closing laps. Getting an unsavory reaction to my predictions, but it seems people are wont to forget Fisher clocked 12:53i/7:28/12:46/26:33 last year, and importantly, he almost always delivers.

One more thing: why should we believe this is a WR attempt? LetsRun describes it as such in their write-up, but concede that’s an assumption based on being told the pace would be set at 59/lap…but the start list has the pace slated for 2:29/K, so maybe “59” means sub-60. Please correct me if I’m wrong and there’s an explicit WR attempt stated somewhere.

and you are putting predictions based on 8 months old data?

What are your predictions for top-5 finishers with times?

Grabt may well get lapped.

Where are you getting this information?

The start lists include targets assigned to the pacers.

How do we watch this meet on TV?

I’d probably swap Fisher and Girma but the top 3 are close imo.

Girma out-kicked Barega to win last year, has a history of performing well indoors, 7:27 PB, etc. He’s beatable but I like his chances.

Fisher always delivers and will clearly be ready to run fast tomorrow, but he doesn’t have the finish that Girma does. I think his best chance is to stick to the pacers until they drop, then push the last 1k hard and hope he doesn’t rabbit anyone to a record.

Krop had a slow start to his indoor season last year which is why I’m placing him 3rd, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he won. He’s coming off a 27:04 in Valencia (20 sec improvement from 2022) and clearly hit a new level this last outdoor season.

Katir has never impressed me indoors and Ndikumwenayo is a complete unknown. Maybe he’ll shock the world with another 7:25, but so far his 2023 results haven’t been anything to write home about.

Girma doesn’t have finish speed? Did you watch indoors at all last season. No, he can’t outkick El Bakkali but he can close.

JWH, High Hopes respect your opinions. Just noting on Katir he ran substantially faster at 10K to close the season and also of course has an opener.

I don't see Fisher as a "break the field" type of guy. He was beaten when he ran 7:28 and 12:46 - both times by guys who are in this field. His 12:53 and 26:33 came in heavily controlled TTs. He's a great athlete and he may have learned from those experiences last year. Tbh, for Fisher, I think a win in this field would be a bigger deal than either a national record or WR. We know he can run fast already, it proves nothing to do it again. We don't know that he can win races against global elites

I think Jakob would have had a good chance to improve his WR if he hadn´t been ill.

As pointed out by others he, however, seems to go after his WR with the pacers scheduled to hit the 1000m in 2.20.

If so, Jakob "just" have to run 28 seconds per 200m the last 2.5 laps to break his WR.

What do you reckon a healthy Jakob could run? 3:28.xx? I don’t think he even has to be 100% to run 3:30.59.

Is the meet streamed?

Flotrack. I think flosports bought out US Markets so it's going to be geo blocked on domestic YT channel platforms.

I never put predictions, especially if they are accompanied with times.