Correct. She is not training like pros or training/living at altitude yet. That just shows the degree talent we are talking about.
The NCAA basketball analogy is very helpful. In that case, a comparably talented NCAA basketball or football player would be set to make tens of millions in guaranteed money. That is truly life altering. However even the GOAT NCAA female distance runner is not going to make anywhere near that. Unless someone is truly offering her life altering amounts of money as opposed to just a nice deal that may pay 200K before taxes, there is zero reason to go pro right now.
I think part of it comes down to..... is it all about the money or not? or are there other more important things than securing the biggest pot of money.
i've been there, i've taken the big lump sum signing bonus tied to a 3 year contract where i had to pay back the unamortized amount of the signing bonus if i didn't perform. I hated every minute of it, felt like a slave and would't do it again. my peace of mind and autonomy are worth more than money and i make about 35% of what i did then but am much happier. so no doubt my personal experience has biased my viewpoint here. but my points come from a sincere place.
Definitely NOT all about the money. I think if I were her parent I’d be urging her to stay put, but I’m also baking in a perspective of relative financial privilege. There are also competitive implications of the decision. She’s thriving as an athlete at NC State, but who is to say what might happen if she were to move to Boulder and train with Alicia and Ritz, for example. Could you imagine that as a competitor on the verge of being world-class that might be very motivating? Anyway, Tuohy is showing zero signs she’s making any sort of change. Good for her. I’m rooting for her regardless and hope it all works out with no regrets.
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I agree, in my opinion $200k in exchange for an amazing college expericence that she seems to love is not worth it, not even close. $200k is gone very quickly, you can't replace the experiences she is having right now and this is her only time in life to have them. of course its up to her to make those decisions. just basing my view on what is in the public eye and what she says in interviews
I agree, in my opinion $200k in exchange for an amazing college expericence that she seems to love is not worth it, not even close. $200k is gone very quickly, you can't replace the experiences she is having right now and this is her only time in life to have them. of course its up to her to make those decisions. just basing my view on what is in the public eye and what she says in interviews
i recognize $200k is an arbitrary number and her market value is much, much, much higher than that but the point remains....
She would now have to pay for housing (free as part of her scholarship)
She would need to pay for coaching
She would have to pay for any PT/massage (surely paid for by NC State now)
Pros don't pay for coaching.
If they are part of a major training group like Bowerman or Union but if she was to stay with coach Henes she should pay for those coaching services and things like going to the athletic trainer and other facilities she has access to now as a member of the NC State team she might now have access to now. She is a smart young women and has a great support system (family and coach/team) sure she will make the right decision for her
Correct. She is not training like pros or training/living at altitude yet. That just shows the degree talent we are talking about.
The NCAA basketball analogy is very helpful. In that case, a comparably talented NCAA basketball or football player would be set to make tens of millions in guaranteed money. That is truly life altering. However even the GOAT NCAA female distance runner is not going to make anywhere near that. Unless someone is truly offering her life altering amounts of money as opposed to just a nice deal that may pay 200K before taxes, there is zero reason to go pro right now.
Ok, got it. Touhy is more than a goat NCAA runner, I think she has the potential to be a much bigger deal. More Felix or Syd than Monson or Cranny, so I was thinking her deal would be much more than just a comfortable salary, even before she wins any global medals. Maybe that’s naive of me.
I think part of it comes down to..... is it all about the money or not? or are there other more important things than securing the biggest pot of money.
i've been there, i've taken the big lump sum signing bonus tied to a 3 year contract where i had to pay back the unamortized amount of the signing bonus if i didn't perform. I hated every minute of it, felt like a slave and would't do it again. my peace of mind and autonomy are worth more than money and i make about 35% of what i did then but am much happier. so no doubt my personal experience has biased my viewpoint here. but my points come from a sincere place.
Definitely NOT all about the money. I think if I were her parent I’d be urging her to stay put, but I’m also baking in a perspective of relative financial privilege. There are also competitive implications of the decision. She’s thriving as an athlete at NC State, but who is to say what might happen if she were to move to Boulder and train with Alicia and Ritz, for example. Could you imagine that as a competitor on the verge of being world-class that might be very motivating? Anyway, Tuohy is showing zero signs she’s making any sort of change. Good for her. I’m rooting for her regardless and hope it all works out with no regrets.
Ritz has said he doesn't want people from the same nationality on OAC competing against each other in the same event. Since Monson is the 5,000/10,000 runner already, probably rules out OAC.
I think signing with Adidas and then training under Mike Smith with former teammate Elly Henes makes a lot of sense. Henes took a big jump in her first year as a pro to 14:52, and Tuohy is a bigger talent.
I think Tuohy is the most naturally talented distance runner I have seen. Put her in the 1980s and she is a global medal threat even against the Soviets. Today it is a lot more complicated given the doping situation If we are frank, the US sprinting system knows how the game is played, although maybe not as well as Jamaica. But distance running is a different ballgame. You are competing against athletes that are poisoning themselves for peanuts. US distance runners have medaled, but talent is still running up against a very dreary chemical wall.
You have no idea what her NIL deal is or whether it's better or worse that what OAC might offer her for a different kind of contract. There are no limits on the size of NIL deals and Adidas has a record of doling out generous contacts to promising young stars.
Well, in light of her recent accomplishments, I hope she’s renegotiating her deal and investigating her options. Outside of Sydney and maybe Mu, she’s likely the most coveted USA female T&F star. Her value to a relative upstart company like On would be extraordinary. Adidas is drowning in Ye-related debt.
This I completely agree with. I don't know if Adidas took on any debt for Ye, but they have an $x loss of revenue for '23 and '24 and $500 million in unsold Ye merchandise coming soon to a TJ Maxx near you.
From a brand standpoint neither adidas or on is a good match. They both are working on global concepts, and Tuohy's value is very usa centric. I know On must be thrilled with athletic performance of Nuguse, Monson, Klecker, Hurta etc., but other than having a stable of athletes, I don't see now how On is using them in marketing. Adidas similarly goes the stable of athletes route and does not appear to be using usa runners in promotion.
For a USA centric business like under armour, Touhy could be the face of a women's line of running, cross training, athleisure wear. I don't see that happening though as adidas won't let her go. They know they have 'something', so they will pay and keep it, but they will never fully get behind the opportunity Tuohy offers for USA women's market.
Correct. She is not training like pros or training/living at altitude yet. That just shows the degree talent we are talking about.
The NCAA basketball analogy is very helpful. In that case, a comparably talented NCAA basketball or football player would be set to make tens of millions in guaranteed money. That is truly life altering. However even the GOAT NCAA female distance runner is not going to make anywhere near that. Unless someone is truly offering her life altering amounts of money as opposed to just a nice deal that may pay 200K before taxes, there is zero reason to go pro right now.
Ok, got it. Touhy is more than a goat NCAA runner, I think she has the potential to be a much bigger deal. More Felix or Syd than Monson or Cranny, so I was thinking her deal would be much more than just a comfortable salary, even before she wins any global medals. Maybe that’s naive of me.
You are not naive at all. Touhy being paid up front now for value of her results, 'her story'', and bet on the future. It's obviously not fair, but kt has more value in brand marketing than her NCAA champion peers like Roe and Chelangat.
One last thought here. Running is structured strangely for pros compared to NFL, NBA or soccer. In most sports the big earnings come from your salary with the team, and the secondary earning from sponsorship. A typical NBA player might make $20 million annually to play and another $10 million from other sponsors. (Lebron/Steph $50m and $50m). In running there is no team, so the shoe sponsor fills the void. A runner like Mu/Syd might make $1 million in winnings plus appearance fees and then $3 million from sponsors. In track the winnings are so small, even less than appearance fees. The only way to make big money like Bolt or Duplantis is to become a global star rather than just a USA star. Then the sponsors can use you for advertising across many countries. Mu and Syd are on this trajectory. Tuohy is a lock to be a USA star, unlikely though to become a global star.
I think Tuohy is the most naturally talented distance runner I have seen. Put her in the 1980s and she is a global medal threat even against the Soviets. Today it is a lot more complicated given the doping situation If we are frank, the US sprinting system knows how the game is played, although maybe not as well as Jamaica. But distance running is a different ballgame. You are competing against athletes that are poisoning themselves for peanuts. US distance runners have medaled, but talent is still running up against a very dreary chemical wall.
Why is it more complicated today? Soviets in 1980s didn't dope?
It isn't $200K. It is likley well over $1M for a several year contract. One never knows what cold happen tomorrow. That is the point. What if she stagnates? What if she gets injured? No money, ever then. Only a fool would pass it by. Everyone assumes that tose things will never happen....until they do. Torres? Cain?
It isn't $200K. It is likley well over $1M for a several year contract. One never knows what cold happen tomorrow. That is the point. What if she stagnates? What if she gets injured? No money, ever then. Only a fool would pass it by. Everyone assumes that tose things will never happen....until they do. Torres? Cain?
Assuming Mr. Flynn is a good sports agent, injury and declining performance are either considered in the NIL (ex: 5 yr contract) or are insured against.
Correct. She is not training like pros or training/living at altitude yet. That just shows the degree talent we are talking about.
The NCAA basketball analogy is very helpful. In that case, a comparably talented NCAA basketball or football player would be set to make tens of millions in guaranteed money. That is truly life altering. However even the GOAT NCAA female distance runner is not going to make anywhere near that. Unless someone is truly offering her life altering amounts of money as opposed to just a nice deal that may pay 200K before taxes, there is zero reason to go pro right now.
Forget the money angle. The question with Tuohy is, for her overall career, is she better off training as a pro with those close to being her peers or with her college team where with each race she seems to have few if any peers.
No. She is likely to sign with a different sponsor soon. They wouldn't given her a long term NIL or insurance against injury. They are paying for her name for a year.
Well, in light of her recent accomplishments, I hope she’s renegotiating her deal and investigating her options. Outside of Sydney and maybe Mu, she’s likely the most coveted USA female T&F star. Her value to a relative upstart company like On would be extraordinary. Adidas is drowning in Ye-related debt.
This I completely agree with. I don't know if Adidas took on any debt for Ye, but they have an $x loss of revenue for '23 and '24 and $500 million in unsold Ye merchandise coming soon to a TJ Maxx near you.
From a brand standpoint neither adidas or on is a good match. They both are working on global concepts, and Tuohy's value is very usa centric. I know On must be thrilled with athletic performance of Nuguse, Monson, Klecker, Hurta etc., but other than having a stable of athletes, I don't see now how On is using them in marketing. Adidas similarly goes the stable of athletes route and does not appear to be using usa runners in promotion.
For a USA centric business like under armour, Touhy could be the face of a women's line of running, cross training, athleisure wear. I don't see that happening though as adidas won't let her go. They know they have 'something', so they will pay and keep it, but they will never fully get behind the opportunity Tuohy offers for USA women's market.
She needs to go pro now. There will never be a time that her stock will be this high. Runners get injured. Runners get burned out. Runners plateau. Her 3000 performance is by far the best thing she has done. I think she could get a 5 year deal worth $200K per year right now. It is easy to finish school while running professionally. Be smart. It didn't work out well for King Ches.
Why would we forget the money? That is silly. If somebody was going to pay her a bazillion dollars to go pro and it would hamper her development, so what?
Her contract will be worth 1.5million-2million after she makes a US team this year or in 2024. Tuohy has fanbase comparable to Abby Steiner or even bigger.