I am beyond pumped for this men's race. Was worried Barega wasn't going to run given he was 7th at the trials and said he was going to run indoor. I'm sorry to whoever was 6th but it's way more fun having the Olympic champ in the race.
Plus Cheptegei AND Kiplimo, an utterly stacked Kenyan team, and don't sleep on Rodrigue Kwizera of Burundi...
I'm thinking Cheptegei has to be the favorite but he'll have to work for it!
I agree on a man from Burundi contending, but maybe a different one?
If you're thinking Thierry Ndikumwenayo he's not racing I think because he's still waiting World Athletics to transfer his allegiance to Spain. Ntakarutimana (27:24/13:08) and Irabaruta (2:07:13 marathon NR) are quite good but Kwizera is the best bet for a medal or top 5 for Burundi I reckon.
Sure you do - you know half of their presumptive scorers in Cheptegei/Kiplimo. If they go 1-2 again in a race where 4 score, that’s huge.
Their other guys’ notable PRs:
Isaac Kibet - 27:41 road, 60:20
Rogers Kibet - 13:14, 27:31, 27:07 road
Samuel Kibet - 13:27, 28:22
Martin Kiprotich - 13:21, 28:21 road
So I’d have to favor Kenya’s depth and their apparent “ceiling,” but if Cheptegei, Kiplimo and 2 of those 4 bring their A game they could certainly get the W.
Thanks for laying this out there, JWH. It's certainly plausible because I think the first 2 (Isaac and Rogers) here can finish top 10.
Here are some predictions that will assuredly be wrong:
If you're thinking Thierry Ndikumwenayo he's not racing I think because he's still waiting World Athletics to transfer his allegiance to Spain. Ntakarutimana (27:24/13:08) and Irabaruta (2:07:13 marathon NR) are quite good but Kwizera is the best bet for a medal or top 5 for Burundi I reckon.
It's a shame. I get that the Olympics has more of a country representation bent, but World Championships should be about seeing the best guys. I want to see Lobalu and Ndikumwenyano out there. I strongly believe that being top 10 (or top 5/8) world-ranked should be sufficient to get an athlete in. Beef up the participation requirements if needs be. Guys who compete a lot and are the best should be in the showcase of the best.
Maybe a little harder to do, countries should also be required to send athletes that are in their yearly top 20 lists too. Not send some C/D listers. Again, much harder to enforce
This would be tough to enforce- you can't make anyone compete. Even in the Super Bowl, if the Chiefs didn't want Mahomes to play that's their choice.
I DO wish there was some incentive for the best to run- Fisher should be there. He should WANT to be there to run against the best.
OK, maybe I was overzelous there. Can't make someone compete, but having some incentive would make it advantageous to run.
Best race in the world. As someone said, would be really fun to see Ingebrigtsen here considering he got smoked (something like 12th) in the junior race last time around. Does massive elevation gain favor lighter builds? Either way, he's really proven himself now so would have been fun to see him at XC vs the best.
I think Jakob would be a real threat this time around. Still would see him more in the 6-10 range. That Aarhus course was pretty absurd, and his strength has gone way up since then.
Sure you do - you know half of their presumptive scorers in Cheptegei/Kiplimo. If they go 1-2 again in a race where 4 score, that’s huge.
Their other guys’ notable PRs:
Isaac Kibet - 27:41 road, 60:20
Rogers Kibet - 13:14, 27:31, 27:07 road
Samuel Kibet - 13:27, 28:22
Martin Kiprotich - 13:21, 28:21 road
So I’d have to favor Kenya’s depth and their apparent “ceiling,” but if Cheptegei, Kiplimo and 2 of those 4 bring their A game they could certainly get the W.
Thanks for laying this out there, JWH. It's certainly plausible because I think the first 2 (Isaac and Rogers) here can finish top 10.
Here are some predictions that will assuredly be wrong:
I can't wait for the men's race and I'm really interested to see what Niyonsaba does in the women's race.
The big downer for me is the lack of Europeans involved. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK have all just passed on this one. At least the UK sent a full women's team, but otherwise, a big fail for Europe on this one. Even if a country can muster a full team, there's quality individuals like Crippa, Can, Mechaal, and Grovdal who usually love to compete in XC. None will be there.
I’ve recently rewatched Gidey setting the 10000m WR in Hengelo. It was very satisfying to watch her lap Niyonsaba during that race. - But yes it will be interesting as Niyonsaba’s running style is as ugly as Gideys is beautiful. But her sticky short powerful looking legs may hold an advantage on the hill sections. - Ultimately though I don’t think she will be able to challenge Gidey, Gidey is on a different level to mere mortals these days and cross country is where she cut her teeth.
I can't wait for the men's race and I'm really interested to see what Niyonsaba does in the women's race.
The big downer for me is the lack of Europeans involved. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK have all just passed on this one. At least the UK sent a full women's team, but otherwise, a big fail for Europe on this one. Even if a country can muster a full team, there's quality individuals like Crippa, Can, Mechaal, and Grovdal who usually love to compete in XC. None will be there.
I’ve recently rewatched Gidey setting the 10000m WR in Hengelo. It was very satisfying to watch her lap Niyonsaba during that race. - But yes it will be interesting as Niyonsaba’s running style is as ugly as Gideys is beautiful. But her sticky short powerful looking legs may hold an advantage on the hill sections. - Ultimately though I don’t think she will be able to challenge Gidey, Gidey is on a different level to mere mortals these days and cross country is where she cut her teeth.
Wouldn’t be a surprise for Beatrice Chebet to finish on the podium.
Well Pacific, Oceanic and South East Asian athletes spend their life’s pandering to Europe. Two times in the Pacific in fifty years. Maybe the real issue is as you say the failure of WA to support XC and I would add 10000 metres on the track. Hopeless.
Meanwhile "Number of European Nations sending a team to Men's Race: 1 (Spain) Number of European Nations sending a team to Women's Race: 2 (Spain & UK)"
All I know is Kenya is probably a lock for the team title with all their sub 27 and sub 59 guys. I don’t know anyone on the Uganda team.
You don't know Cheptegei and Kiplimo?
Still, we could have done better. I'd have loved to see Oscar Chelimo on the team, even though he's had several embarrassing losses to Burundians recently. But I'll hope for the best.
Sure you do - you know half of their presumptive scorers in Cheptegei/Kiplimo. If they go 1-2 again in a race where 4 score, that’s huge.
Their other guys’ notable PRs:
Isaac Kibet - 27:41 road, 60:20
Rogers Kibet - 13:14, 27:31, 27:07 road
Samuel Kibet - 13:27, 28:22
Martin Kiprotich - 13:21, 28:21 road
So I’d have to favor Kenya’s depth and their apparent “ceiling,” but if Cheptegei, Kiplimo and 2 of those 4 bring their A game they could certainly get the W.
Thanks for laying this out there, JWH. It's certainly plausible because I think the first 2 (Isaac and Rogers) here can finish top 10.
Here are some predictions that will assuredly be wrong:
Ah, I might be biased but I don't see Kandie beating Cheptegei. And save for when he lost to that Norwegian (or wherever he's from) last year, Cheptegei always has his priorities right in the big races. I think he'll win this one; it's Kiplimo I am not sure about – he's massively talented, but lacks that killer instinct.