Katelyn Tuohy will not win and its okay

Katelyn ran injured last year, also fell at the mile mark yet still finished way ahead of a healthy Parker Valby who blasted the first mile and faded awfully in the last 2 kilometers. It is going to be such a big headline if Tuohy whoops her ass again even with an injured hammy.

But she isn't going to win and then the Tuohy fans will claim injury even though are claiming no injury now. We know how Tuohy and her fans roll.

Katelyn Tuohy will make you eat your words.

Last year was last year. This year is this year.

Valby has improved tons over last year. She is at the highest level that perhaps any collegiate athlete has ever been in history and by the time she is finished at Florida will probably be considered the bet ever. Her legacy is already beginning to be worked on and will continue this upcoming weekend in Stillwater.

This X 1000

Valby currently has no peers. Her annihilation of the field will be epic.

Stop projecting your pedophilia onto people who enjoy cross country racing.It's embarrassing that you can't enjoy the sport without thinking about these women sexually.

As a somewhat impartial observer, I could see either Tuohy or Valby winning. But I don't think everyone saying Valby will definitely win understands the Stillwater course. It's hilly and will be about 40 degrees. Would you take someone from New York or someone from Florida in those conditions?

(FYI, as someone from New England I don't find 40 cold, but I know that there are people in other parts of the country who do, so it's worth noting.)

“I don't think everyone saying Valby will definitely win understands the Stillwater course. It's hilly and will be about 40 degrees.“

Amen. It’ll be mid-30s w wind chill in the 20s. PV will run her race; substantial herd will still be together in the front when ‘things begin’ at the top of the hill (end of the first loop) at about 3K. I’d bet there will be an attempt to separate on the flats/dh from the south end of the course to the far north end before the s-turns and hills. Let’s see who can either hang w the lead on that flats/dh section and then climb the hills for the money (so-to-speak), or let the lead go and catch her (make up the separation) in the last 2k on the hills.

Apparently there is something called double standards

it may not even be 30 at race time....agree on how the race will likely play out.

I think if Lacctic didn’t exist, Tuohy would be the favorite. But it does, and it creates an interesting discussion. Forget the whole “track 5k equivalent” thing and forget historical data. The important thing that lacctic is saying is that Valby is putting a bigger gap on “the pack” than Tuohy. The NORMALIZED DISTRIBUTION of the race does not change with conditions, course length, or anything else like that. It only changes when the runners in the race change (and the 5k track times/tic rating estimate this). This does not necessarily mean Valby is going to run 14:50s in a track 5k, or that she will beat Tuohy by 40 seconds at nationals. HOWEVER, her last two performances are RELATIVELY much better than anything Tuohy has put down, and if they both run at their seasonal performance level at the national meet, Valby will win. It is still highly debatable whether or not THAT will happen. But it is an important factor, and imo, it makes Valby the real favorite.

“I think if Lacctic didn’t exist, Tuohy would be the favorite.“

Some of us don’t pay attention to lacctic, nor do we care who someone’s favorite might be. But, we do follow and enjoy XC races and have seen some or most of the notional favorites run — first hand…in person, in HS and/or college, on this particular course or several others; I don’t care who wins. But, PV has run some crazy fast times that people would be paying attention to, lacctic or no lacctic (or many other sites). Like it or not, that’s gonna make her someone’s favorite. Get over it.

Edit:

Like it or not, KT has been good for a long time — that’s gonna make her someone’s favorite. Get over it.

I appreciate the effort don't as much credence in Lacctic as I do with speed ratings. Just not enough data in college running. It does not account for things like race tactics or course conditions or short courses very well. Valby in three races ran hard from the gun to maximize a gap on fast, relatively flat courses. She went super hard at regionals where no one else really thought it was worth the effort to answer her early attack and where her own coach did not understand why she was attacking. Tuohy has generally sat and kicked, getting a gap over the last 1-2 k. Even in the ACC once the race settled down between her and Chmiel she did not push until the last 1k. Yet relatively she had a bigger gap over Chelangat or the FSU's top finishers but smaller gaps regarding some others. It is certainly not going out on a limb to predict that Valby, who was the second best 5000m runner in the NCAA last year, could win. But if she wins it won't validate or invalidate Lacctic ratings.

And realistically was 19:17 at Runninglane (a fast, relatively easy course) more impressive than Tuohy's 19:08 at Panorama Farms, a hilly, more challenging course? What Valby has done that is unusual in college is attack super early in successive races. She assumes she can outstrength the field and depends on her fitness, which is how she ran the 5000m final.

Is it creepy or just natural? You have the finest specimens of the female human on display. Obviously, they are not focused on the sexual element but competing in their sport. They are impressive in their dedication, their physical conditioning and they are reaching their prime in womenhood. But men are supposed to sit their and not feel admiration on any level? Outside of reproducing our species is there anything we can say for certain about life? Not creepy; just human nature.

Why is there this creepy obsession with Tuohy? It is legitimately viewed that if you even predict she loses, you "hate" her. What a bunch of snowflakes. Grown men obsessed over girls running 5:15-5:20 mile pace for a short distance. Preemptively addressing the immature comments, when I competed I never struggled to be far ahead of the fastest girl in NCAA 5K...or 10-20 seconds faster than the global pro women's 5K.

Both runners have shown great success. If I hadn't seen Parker Valby run, I would say for sure it would be Tuohy. There is nothing I can see that would make me certain either way. I would call it 33% each for one of them and then 33% chance someone else would win. However, after saying that I wonder if Parker Valby in going out, leading and winning like that has revealed all her cards. On the one hand it's a good strategy to bury your rivals early if you can so they can't outkick you at then end. On the other you wonder if other's are holding back and saving it all for the final.