The question might be rephrased: how can we be confident anyone isn't doping?
A few uncomfortable facts:
- As far back as 1996 it was estimated that up to 80% of participants at Atlanta would be doped. (There was also no test for EPO then, so it would have been present in running).
- Only 1-2% of tests produce a positive. Confidential athlete surveys have proven that doping far exceeds the numbers caught. Ergo, most dopers are not caught. In the words of a former WADA head, "only the dumb and the careless are caught".
- In the words of another former WADA head, David Howman, "doping is more sophisticated than antidoping". Hence, doping remains ahead of antidoping.
- It is found in all sports. According to antidoping expert Renee Ann Shirley, "doping is present in all sports in all countries at elite levels, with the frequent collusion of sports governance bodies". It has been found in championship darts, curling and chess.
- Doping is not confined to elites and professionals. It is known to be present in schools and colleges.
- The question every athlete is faced with today is whether they are prepared to use everything available to them to succeed - which, for many, includes doping. They will know that many of their competitors will dope. In some countries we have seen that doping is about 99% at the top - as in Russia, where it is state-sponsored. How many athletes are prepared to lose to those they believe are dopers?
Since those are just some of the factors that indicate the likely prevalence of doping today, the question remains - how confident can you be that any athlete (and especially your favorite) isn't?