You said “does lightning strike twice” in reference to Fisher’s 2nd place in Brussels being the first “lightning strike.” This implies that his result in Brussels was a matter of luck or random chance but of course it wasn’t—only once in history has someone broken 12:48 and finished outside of the top-2. As far as race to race variability and Ndikumwenayo, some athletes are more erratic or have one-off outlier performances (Getnet Wale 7:24.9i? Where’s that form been lately?) and others like Jakob perform well nearly every time out; Fisher definitely seems like one of the more reliable performers. This is every result for him this year:
2/12 - 12:53.73i AR - 1st
3/6 - 26:33.84 AR - 1st
5/27 - 28:28.81 - 2nd US Champs
6/11 - 3:35.53 PB - 3rd
6/26 - 13:03.86 - 1st US Champs
7/17 - 27:28.14 - 4th World Champs
7/21 - 13:24.44 - 2nd WCs h1
7/24 - 13:11.65 - 6th World Champs
8/10 - 7:28.48 AR - 3rd
9/2 - 12:46.96 AR - 2nd
His narrow loss to Klecker in the US Champs 10k is the only race in which you could claim he underperformed. Though he got some grief from all the world champions on LetsRun for how he raced at Worlds, I think you could argue that the only 2 races in which he didn’t put himself in position to contend for the win are the 1500 (where he hung way back and closed hard) and the Monaco 3k (where the leaders went 7:20 pace through 1600).
I’m picking Fisher to win this in large part because he’s been more consistent than the likes of Ndikumwenayo, Barega and others (and in large part because it would be fun to see). FWIW, Fisher has beaten every other man on the start list at some time this outdoor season.