I follow his training on Strava. I’m not saying he can’t medal, but please give me a workout he’s done that indicates he’s ready to beat Barega, Cheptegai, and Kiplimo? I think he can run 26:50 in good conditions, but that’s not closing in a 52-53. Or a 57 penultimate lap into a 55 which is what Cheptegai will probably try and do. It’ll be warm, but it’s not going to be blazing hot so don’t expect a 28 flat race.
I thought you were a little generous with Brazier (20%) and Teare (13%). I’d put Schweizer (17%) a little higher. I figure 12%, 6%, and 24%. I’m on par with you for almost everything else (at least the ones above 10%)
Brazier might have looked good in his 1:46, but the strength for 3 rounds is the concern. The 800 is such a toss up event so there’s double uncertainty here. As for Teare if it was slower than 3:35 maybe (doubt it) now that it’s evident he can run a 51.xx for a last lap, but his positioning at Pre/USA’s was not good and wouldn’t fly at a global final. I could maybe see a 3:31 with a 55 last lap, but he’d need more than that to medal. For Schweizer, closing in sub 15 in a sub-30:50 race was good and she’s run 4:00 for 1500m twice. Gidey isn’t as good this year, Obiri and Hassan have barely raced, and Francine had a foot injury after Pre. That’s actually why I picked Taye to win this race.
If Mu shows up in 1:55 form, of course she’ll medal barring a fall or something. If training or health hasn’t been great for any reason and she shows up in 1:57 shape, then of course there’s a chance that she goes with Moraa or Hodgkinson en route to a stellar 1:56.0 or whatever, starts losing ground with 100 to go and doesn’t handle that well mentally, getting passed by any combination of Moraa/Hodgkinson/Wilson/Rogers/Welteji/X and “going home devastated”. Nobody expected Halimah Nakaayi to win in Doha. There could always be surprises. 72% is quite high and I don’t think any athlete on the track has higher than ~80% chance for a medal, all things considered.
It’s easy to say Rogers was racing Reekie for bronze in hindsight. Going into the Olympics, Almanza had run 1:56 twice, Goule had run 1:56, Getachew had run 1:56, Reekie had run 1:56–all those times would be the world lead so far this year. I like Rogers at 40% because she’s proven herself in global championships, and the meet being in Eugene should only help her.
We’ll have to disagree on Johnson and Teare. Personally I think the women’s medals look more locked up between Kipyegon/Tsegay/Meshesha/Muir than the men’s medals.
I think Cranny and Schweizer combined having greater than 50/50 medal odds in the 5k is too high, but you know that. Are you sure Obiri is not doubling? She was set to as of 2 weeks ago:
Regardless, my money is on an Ethiopian sweep in that event: Seyaum, Gidey, Taye.
I have faith in Mu’s talent. I think she just ran too hard in her USAs semi., while Ajee got a training run in hers. I’d be surprised if she’s not in 1:55-mid shape at slowest. They only have 1 not 2 days off to the final like in Tokyo so that race might be less impressive. You bring up some other names but Almanza always no-shows at championships same as Goule, Getachew is XY, and Reekie yes she is what she is.
In the 1500 I think you are just underestimating Johnson a smidge vis a vis Teare. Johnson is good at positioning and has a really good finish. Teare is not great at positioning and is more of a pretty good finisher. I think the fields are pretty similar and I’d honestly have more faith in Tim/ Hoare than Muir/Meshesha.
Obiri isn’t entered in the 5. She has the bye so it’s unusual, but she is moving to the roads so perhaps she’s prepping to race a big city major.
Only delusional people think he's coming close to a medal. dude has never done ANYTHING notable in world running. Nobody cares about USAs or national events.
Here is my unfinished, abandoned ranking of American middle and long distance medal chances:
Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 72% The Olympic champion’s estimated medal chances are actually slightly down from last year (75%), as she didn’t look dominating at USAs, hasn’t yet broken 1:57–and due to the emergence of Kenya’s Mary Moraa as a gold medal contender. Still, she’s the gold medal favorite and it would be a major surprise to see her finish outside the top 3.
Just put up the betting guide. Mu is 80% not to medal but to WIN at the sports books.
The top 3 will likely be around 27 flat or better, and closing extremely hard to do that. I don't think Klecker has that in him. At least not yet. Grant has shown he can do it. I know Klecker beat him at USA's, but that was not Grant's best race of his life, it was huge for Joe.
The US trials were great, of course, but his most impressive race was the DL 5K (imho). That was what made me believe he could make a threat at top 5. Before that, I’d have agreed with you.
Was watching the weather. I knew there was no way we're getting a 100% Klecker run @75 degrees but he did really well. Dude is 30 pounds heavier than Cheptegei & Kiplimo.