Let's Run posters are positive, encouraging and optimistic towards other people's efforts reaching their goals. Aren't they?
There is a lot of knowledge and experience on this board and the majority of posters on any SJD thread point out the glaring holes in his training regimen and racing strategies. That is called REALISM.
If you want to believe in race day magic and the power of positive thinking, then join a Runner's World forum or read the SJD YouTube channel comments.
His work ethic is impressive. He would benefit from getting a decent coach and following a solid marathon plan for 16-20 weeks. Even if he just followed Jack Daniel’s or Phitz…. I’d give him a solid 85% chance at CIM with good weather. He has the speed and stamina to get really close. He just needs to sharpen the knife correctly.
2:59. Takes it out in 1:07 and then he has to walk it in at mile 20. I’m going with food as being the excuse for his poor performance.
Jet lag and European butter will be the culprits.
"OK. Oooookaaaayyy! European butter. Wow! Don't get me wrong. Dutch butter is delicious but, butttttt...it's different. They must process it differently or maybe it is the lack of American preservatives goodness? I don't know? I'm not an expert in dairy products. Maybe someone in the DGR family is and can hit up the comments below? Wow! OK! So, the Dutch butter and Bobo's...no bueno! Now, when I slathered the good ol' American Land O' Lakes on my bread back home it's just SO...MUCH...GOODNESS! But...but...Dutch butter must not chemically bond the same way with my Bobo's and I was not feeling it. Was not feeling it. Not good to not feel it on race day."
The thing is, as he mentions pivoting to coaching more and more, he needs to hit the qualifier in order to prove there is method to his madness. Failure again and any road coaching plan becomes a very hard sell.
His work ethic is impressive. He would benefit from getting a decent coach and following a solid marathon plan for 16-20 weeks. Even if he just followed Jack Daniel’s or Phitz…. I’d give him a solid 85% chance at CIM with good weather. He has the speed and stamina to get really close. He just needs to sharpen the knife correctly.
This is true. Those people saying 2:40-3:00 are idiots unless something bad happens. Probability wise he has a just a good chance at hitting the otq as running 3:00, 95% chance he runs in the 2:2x’s.
A PB at this juncture would be a positive, whereby sometime near the conclusion of 2022 consideration of a serious attempt at the OTQ in 2023 would be warranted.
His work ethic is impressive. He would benefit from getting a decent coach and following a solid marathon plan for 16-20 weeks. Even if he just followed Jack Daniel’s or Phitz…. I’d give him a solid 85% chance at CIM with good weather. He has the speed and stamina to get really close. He just needs to sharpen the knife correctly.
This is true. Those people saying 2:40-3:00 are idiots unless something bad happens. Probability wise he has a just a good chance at hitting the otq as running 3:00, 95% chance he runs in the 2:2x’s.
This is all really silly. He has no chance to run an OTQ. Forget whatever you know about him from other sources and just look at his Strava. What would you predict for anyone else who ran 69 minutes for a half five weeks ago and whose “best” workout since then was 3x5k averaging 2:18 marathon pace (getting slower on each rep)? Would you predict a sub-2:20? Would you encourage them to run the first half in under 70 minutes?
The dude is obviously capable of running a fast marathon, although I really question whether or not he even has a shot to pr given what he’s been doing in training. But if he actually tries to go out and OTQ— if he goes out in sub-69– I don’t think it will end well.
You might think it’s crazy to predict a 3:00+ performance but what was his most recent marathon? 3:00, after going out in 70 minutes for the half. What has changed since then that would make it seem like a good idea to go out and try to run under 2:18?
He obviously has many strengths as a runner. His main weakness at this point, though, is an inability to run steady sub-5:20 miles in a controlled way. I assumed that is something he would focus on this cycle, but he didn’t, so I don’t know why you would expect different results.
The thing is, as he mentions pivoting to coaching more and more, he needs to hit the qualifier in order to prove there is method to his madness. Failure again and any road coaching plan becomes a very hard sell.
I don't think so man. I mean, you're right, I doubt any real athlete will be going to him for coaching, but he's got plenty of people in his fanbase that are just as ignorant in regards to training principles and human physiology that won't know the difference. Look at the youtube comments. Look at the way they throw money at him during live streams, and how they pay him to be members of his run club. His DGR cult loves him unconditionally. He could run a 4 hour marathon next week and they would be there to cover for him. They'll be chomping at the bit to get closer to him if he's offering them coaching.
This is true. Those people saying 2:40-3:00 are idiots unless something bad happens. Probability wise he has a just a good chance at hitting the otq as running 3:00, 95% chance he runs in the 2:2x’s.
This is all really silly. He has no chance to run an OTQ. Forget whatever you know about him from other sources and just look at his Strava. What would you predict for anyone else who ran 69 minutes for a half five weeks ago and whose “best” workout since then was 3x5k averaging 2:18 marathon pace (getting slower on each rep)? Would you predict a sub-2:20? Would you encourage them to run the first half in under 70 minutes?
The dude is obviously capable of running a fast marathon, although I really question whether or not he even has a shot to pr given what he’s been doing in training. But if he actually tries to go out and OTQ— if he goes out in sub-69– I don’t think it will end well.
You might think it’s crazy to predict a 3:00+ performance but what was his most recent marathon? 3:00, after going out in 70 minutes for the half. What has changed since then that would make it seem like a good idea to go out and try to run under 2:18?
He obviously has many strengths as a runner. His main weakness at this point, though, is an inability to run steady sub-5:20 miles in a controlled way. I assumed that is something he would focus on this cycle, but he didn’t, so I don’t know why you would expect different results.
Good poast
I imagine the 3h blow up will weigh heavily from a psychological perspective during the race
The thing is, as he mentions pivoting to coaching more and more, he needs to hit the qualifier in order to prove there is method to his madness. Failure again and any road coaching plan becomes a very hard sell.
Disagree. He’s all over the place as far as his own training but there are tons of his followers who would pay him to coach them. They love his positivity and sloganeering. Lots of people don’t take the time to research basic training principles and really just need someone to help them get out the door and run consistently. They don’t care about his ability to maximize his own full potential.
The thing is, as he mentions pivoting to coaching more and more, he needs to hit the qualifier in order to prove there is method to his madness. Failure again and any road coaching plan becomes a very hard sell.
Disagree. He’s all over the place as far as his own training but there are tons of his followers who would pay him to coach them. They love his positivity and sloganeering. Lots of people don’t take the time to research basic training principles and really just need someone to help them get out the door and run consistently. They don’t care about his ability to maximize his own full potential.
I don't think there are many hobbyjoggers that will hire him (or anyone else) as a coach, or be willing to pay enough to make hobbyjogging coaching a sustainable lifestyle for SJD. And the runners that legit could use coaching (e.g. a 2:23 marathoner looking to eventually go below 2:18) I would have to imagine would certainly do some due diligence on who they are hiring as a coach.