I looked at finishers in the local 8K turkey trot for a typical year (pre-Covid). So, as a starting point, these are age 60+ guys who are motivated to enter a running event, and were able to complete it.
Total male finishers age 60-99: 668
Male finishers age 60-99 who ran sub-9:00 mile pace: 86
Percent under 9:00 pace: 12.9%
Stats for just the M60-64 group: Of 330 finishers, there were 48 under 9-min-pace (14.5%)
There is an annual marketing report on running. I couldn't remember the name and it's behind a paywall, but I think less than 1% of the over 60 population runs regularly and the overwhelming percentage of those runners only run recreationally to finish.
I have posted variations of this same question before. Every time I hope that somebody points me toward reliable data. It's easy to figure out how a runner is doing against other runners his/her age, but I can't find information on runner performance versus the abilities of the general population.
After I come back from a run, I ask myself the same question, and it's a motivating factor that older runners should ask themselves:
How many guys my age can run this distance in this amount of time ?
I turn 62 in 2 months and I wish to maintain that time at that distance for at least the next 3 years.
You might be one of the very few, pretty fast guys over 60. Enjoy.
But don't think that is normal. You are probably in the 0.001 percentile of your age group (US population) and 1% of the one who are still running at the age of 60-65.
Nah.
I was running low 8s for 5ks at age 62-64 and usually finished 2nd or 3rd in may age group in local races.
Based on the population where I live we might have 10,000 to 15,000 people in that age in my county, including women. My running club has a 5 mile and 2 mile race every year. We get 3-5 runners 60-75 every year under 45 minutes for the 5, including 1 from outside our area, all male. 2 or 3 that run the 2 mile race could do it, and 1 female and a couple more males could if they could stay healthy. Maybe a couple more that don't do our race, but right around that .01% range. Maybe a little higher male only.
This is an excellent question from the Original Poster. Only problem is that the age range specified, 60-75, is awfully large, seeing a significant slowdown during that age range for most "serious-runner" older folks. Below is my experience with four half-marathons during much of that age range (I am male Age 69 now; sorry, do not have similar 8K history). This is similar experience with other age-folks I follow. Reasonably similar training mileage and intensity over the entire period for me, meaning no great training differences to account for the slow-down. And no great course differences, either. It is primarily age, sorry-to-report. But the upside is, the mental and physical health benefits feel just as great as they ever did, and the most important thing is to just keep at it ! THANKS again for the very good question, and as they say, "your mileage may vary". My Age and Pace (Half-Marathons) Age 59: 7:30 pace Age 61: 7:53 pace Age 67: 8:55 pace Age 69: 9:22 pace
Less than 1% / guaranteed. But it is not something to brag about …. I am 53, I could start my watch / eat a combo meal from chick-Fil-a and still run 5 miles under 45 min …. Not that big of a deal / shoot less than 1% of Americans could run 5 miles without stopping - guaranteed
Are you kidding? I'm 61 & can't even run a mile without stopping let alone 5 effing miles! Lol.
This old buck has post-traumatic osteoarthritis (ankle, knee & hip) & other age-related musculoskeletal degenerative issues from decades of competitive running. I had to give running a few years ago & I'm now regulated to a sad walk/jog combo of maybe 3 miles total 1-2 times per week at a local open space park. 😕
And it probably doesn't help that I'm packing on a whopping 175 lbs on a 5'6" midget frame - though I'm getting fairly strong & muscular from lifting 6 days a week now.
I turn 62 in 2 months and I wish to maintain that time at that distance for at least the next 3 years.
Why do you care about percentages of the population? Of course 9:00 pace is possible, easily. 9 minute pace is actually sort of a joke, and I'm 66. The question is can YOU do it and the answer depends on doing the (minimal) work, not your "wish" to maintain a pace.
1/10th of 1% of Americans at the most could do it (prob closer to 1/30th of 1%)
I hope in my previous post I did not diminish a 60-75 year old running a sub 45 min 5 miler. 60-75 is quite a range. I am confident at 60 I will be able to do this but at 75 I doubt it / I would be stoked if I can run 5 miles without stopping by age 75 /
1/10th of 1% of Americans at the most could do it (prob closer to 1/30th of 1%)
I hope in my previous post I did not diminish a 60-75 year old running a sub 45 min 5 miler. 60-75 is quite a range. I am confident at 60 I will be able to do this but at 75 I doubt it / I would be stoked if I can run 5 miles without stopping by age 75 /
I agree that it is a wide range where performance falls a cliff from youngest to oldest, but that doesn't matter because the type of data I'm looking for has never been compiled or estimated by a reliable source.
Looking at the last 8 events for the three local parkruns near Seattle I found 11 participants 60-75 years old who run them at less than 9 minute pace, yours truly included. The 2022 population of Seattle Googled at 3,489,000 so 11/3,489,000 = 0.000315%. I am guessing that half of the 11 can keep that pace for another two miles.
Looking at the last 8 events for the three local parkruns near Seattle I found 11 participants 60-75 years old who run them at less than 9 minute pace, yours truly included. The 2022 population of Seattle Googled at 3,489,000 so 11/3,489,000 = 0.000315%. I am guessing that half of the 11 can keep that pace for another two miles.
Finally we have some numbers: the 60-75 age group accounts for 1/6 of the total population, so you'll need to multiply your estimate by a factor 6, giving ~0.002%
The final missing piece of the puzzle is how many 60-75 yo could have run that pace but did not bother. Since you have looked at 8 events and it is expected that most of the people that can run a 45 5miler at that age is a dedicated runner, I would expect that the actual number is no more than 2-3 times that number, which would be less than 0.01% or 1/10000. To summarize: it is very likely that the range would be between 1/10K and 1/50K.
I'll be 65 in a few months and last summer ran a ten miler in 1:26 on 35-40 miles a week of training over about 4 months. I'm 6ft and about 190lbs. and bulkier than most runners. Guessing there will be a big difference between 65 and 70 though.
I turn 62 in 2 months and I wish to maintain that time at that distance for at least the next 3 years.
Did you mean 60-65? 60-75 is a huge range and we old folks degrade at an accelerating rate.
I think the percentage for 60-65 is below 5%. If you really meant 60-75, I would estimate less than 1%.
I am 70. I think I could do 5 in just under 45 because most days I run 7 at under 10/mile. If I laced up my Streakflys and pushed, I'm confident I could run five miles in under 45 minutes. But at this point I don't think I could regularly train an 9 minutes per mile.