Too bad Greg blocked me or some well-sourced factual info might get to him.
Russia has already destroyed about two thirds of operational Ukrainian military vehicles and artillery, and is systematically eliminating the remainder of its eastern forces. In the process they will kill or capture the neo-Nazi militias which are deployed there.
Europe is about to have to break its own sanctions and buy rubles from the Russian central bank to keep the gas on.
Ukraine will have to accept neutrality in a peace deal. That completes the "demilitarization, denazification, neutrality" objectives the Russians stated right from the start.
Of course the Gregs of the world will fantasize that the Russians lost because not all Ukrainains are dead, or something, and they'll try to vote me wrong, and then in the end when they realize it was all true, they'll hate me even more