Why is that a trade-off? Did Hill have any chance to break AR, let alone 10k?
It's a trade-off for Grant. He chose to pursue the 10k record during his March peak instead of pursuing an indoor medal.
+1
He was very detailed about this too in the super enlightening LRC podcast. He explained that the sharpening for the record versus a championship race are mutually exclusive (according to Jerry, but Fisher seems to agree). As a person who stopped being competitive in HS (!!), I thought this was fascinating. Yes, he was ready to run 12:50 and 26:30, but that’s not at all like being ready to medal in the 3 or 5 at worlds. He had to choose.
Fisher and his coach best know what they want their path to look like. They are best equipped to make their own decision.
In Fishers recent podcast, and interviews, he explained his and his coaches rational for race planning this year. Thus far, the outcome, although never guaranteed, is two new American, North American, Pan American records and current world leading times. He picked where his energy, training, racing, racing calendar focus is.
Tough to predict outcomes. Can’t be everywhere and do everything.
Fishers calculus has been spot on. Wouldn’t expect anything less from someone who can program AI, machine learning, and is enrolled in an advanced degree with that focus.
Being a huge fan… wishing Fisher much athletic success this summer and in his future.
Fisher and his coach best know what they want their path to look like. They are best equipped to make their own decision.
In Fishers recent podcast, and interviews, he explained his and his coaches rational for race planning this year. Thus far, the outcome, although never guaranteed, is two new American, North American, Pan American records and current world leading times. He picked where his energy, training, racing, racing calendar focus is.
Tough to predict outcomes. Can’t be everywhere and do everything.
Fishers calculus has been spot on. Wouldn’t expect anything less from someone who can program AI, machine learning, and is enrolled in an advanced degree with that focus.
Being a huge fan… wishing Fisher much athletic success this summer and in his future.
+1
Fisher is amazing and deserving of much respect both on and off the track. This is a person destined for success in whatever endeavors he chooses to pursue.
When has Grant ever showed the ability to close a low 7:30’s 3k in 25? That I what it will take to medal or at least having the ability to do so. Grant is running very well right now, and he has good speed, but put him against Hocker in a 3k or even Beamish and I think he would lose. This is based on what he has shown at this point of his career. Closing a 12:53 5,000m in 3:57 is not the same as running a 25 last lap. Put some respect on the Ethiopians.
Fisher has said in his interviews he is currently not training for this kind of closing speed and intimated that that kind of sharpening would take place closer to the summer? He would have had to change his training to do so while at altitude camp during base phase.
People just listen to what an athlete says about their own self. It just might save you from yourself.
When has Grant ever showed the ability to close a low 7:30’s 3k in 25? That I what it will take to medal or at least having the ability to do so. Grant is running very well right now, and he has good speed, but put him against Hocker in a 3k or even Beamish and I think he would lose. This is based on what he has shown at this point of his career. Closing a 12:53 5,000m in 3:57 is not the same as running a 25 last lap. Put some respect on the Ethiopians.
Fisher has said in his interviews he is currently not training for this kind of closing speed and intimated that that kind of sharpening would take place closer to the summer? He would have had to change his training to do so while at altitude camp during base phase.
People just listen to what an athlete says about their own self. It just might save you from yourself.
This is a fair point but I still haven’t see a race where Grant has closed that fast. Woody and Chelimo outkicked him at the trials. Four guys beat him at the Olympics in the ten. Grant’s 3,000m PB is outdated but he hasn’t run close to 7:30 with a fast close. Can he? Maybe. He seems to be more of a 5/10 guy at this point. Everybody assumes that, because he has run really fast 5’s and 10’s in time trial settings he will be competitive in an indoor championship 3,000m. I don’t necessarily think this is true. It would be one thing if he ran under 7:30 this year and showed incredible finishing speed throughout his career. Like I said, he has good speed, but hasn’t closed a race in 25 seconds for the last 200 when others have.
Maybe he wouldn't win a medal there, but he is throwing away a chance at one. The indoor field could be quite strong with the 7:20s runners in there, but why not him now? Outdoors, however, he is a contender and was 5th in a hot, humid 10k and a bit worse in the 5k, and that was because the team trained in conditions to prepare for Tokyo in Hawaii. Now, the question is what it's going to be like in Eugene in July. Could be well over 100 degrees on the track, but he could also luck out and get ideal conditions. However, that won't happen for the 10000m, which is taking place at a bizarre 1 p.m., according to World Athletics. Then the 5000m prelim is at 6:10 "local time" and then a 6:05 final. I really hope that is an error and they're after 9 p.m., but that would put the 200m as late as 10:50, so I doubt it.
The weather in Eugene last July ranged from a high of 79 to a high of 95! Low temperature was typically in the 50s, low of 50 in the month up to 64. If they held the 5 and 10 after 9 p.m., the weather might be good, but it would be very good if they held them early in the morning before the sun was high in the sky.
In the recent LRC podcast Fisher pointed out that he likes hot weather and had no problem having the 10 held at 1 pm. He thinks his chances improve under adverse conditions rather than worsen. He’s confident in his speed and ability to kick off a slower and hotter pace than to keep up in a perfect conditions TT type race.
The indoor medals are all devalued by a lack of interest and participation. Fisher should do whatever he needs to do to be in perfect shape to run in July. Everything else is unimportant.
I don’t understand why people pretend American athletes are skipping indoors because it isn’t worth their time. Many of the fields are quite strong, and our athletes are going to have a hard enough time getting medals even in the more watered down events. Fisher is one of our best and he’d be lucky to get bronze in the 3k.
I think it would have been great for him to mix it up with some of the same guys he’ll be facing outdoors in the 5k and 10k. A time trial can be set up at any time so it’s baffling for BTC to prioritize a record attempt over a world championship.
Paul Chelimo has medaled in 3/4 of the last world finals, and just ran 12:59 in hot conditions in a championship final to get a bronze. I would agree that hes on a different level than any other 10k guy, but Chelimo should still be considered the favorite at 5,000 untill beaten.
I think its a bit more nuanced than this. Hard 10ks can take weeks to fully recover from in training, which rules out any point close to the World Championships. Plus, Jerry will probably have them sharpening up over the next few months to improve the kick, which is not optimal for time trial type training. You also never know when you will be in this shape again, if you can take a shot at records while fit, you do it.
There is a reason that a lot of record attempts happen in the off year for world championships, which is when Rupp broke his record. Time trialing and championship racing is just much different. Grant is clearly in great time trial shape right now, racing indoors would take a totally different approach.
I think its a bit more nuanced than this. Hard 10ks can take weeks to fully recover from in training, which rules out any point close to the World Championships. Plus, Jerry will probably have them sharpening up over the next few months to improve the kick, which is not optimal for time trial type training. You also never know when you will be in this shape again, if you can take a shot at records while fit, you do it.
There is a reason that a lot of record attempts happen in the off year for world championships, which is when Rupp broke his record. Time trialing and championship racing is just much different. Grant is clearly in great time trial shape right now, racing indoors would take a totally different approach.
Why does it have to be one or the other? Why can’t Fisher run at world indoors and then chase records later? If there isn’t enough time between his 10k and the championships, move the 10k.
Rupp’s career doesn’t really support your argument. The first time he broke the 10k record was in 2011 which was a championship year (he ran 26:48 just 3 weeks after Daegu). He was at world indoors basically every year and still had many opportunities to time trial. In 2014, for example, he set records in the 2 mile and 5k before finishing 4th in the 3k in Sopot.
I understand that Fisher’s training may not have been optimal for an indoor 3k, but that’s precisely my issue. Why is he targeting the 10k record when he could be racing in a loaded field in Belgrade with a chance to pick up his first global medal?
Why does it have to be one or the other? Why can’t Fisher run at world indoors and then chase records later? If there isn’t enough time between his 10k and the championships, move the 10k.
Rupp’s career doesn’t really support your argument. The first time he broke the 10k record was in 2011 which was a championship year (he ran 26:48 just 3 weeks after Daegu). He was at world indoors basically every year and still had many opportunities to time trial. In 2014, for example, he set records in the 2 mile and 5k before finishing 4th in the 3k in Sopot.
I understand that Fisher’s training may not have been optimal for an indoor 3k, but that’s precisely my issue. Why is he targeting the 10k record when he could be racing in a loaded field in Belgrade with a chance to pick up his first global medal?
If he did run world indoors, there's still a really good chance he doesn't medal. Placing 4th in an indoor 3k doesn't do him much good; There aren't really any incentives for him to do it. The 10k record, on the other hand, gets him a huge bonus from Nike, and is essentially guaranteed as long as he doesn't get injured. Plus, training for a 10k time trial in the spring gets him a WC qualifier, and sets him up really well to do great at WCs/potentially medal. Basically, there aren't many incentives to run world indoors, there are a ton to run a fast 10k.
Will he still be in monster shape after WCs? Yeah. But there's no guarantee that he'd get a good chance to run a fast 10k after WCs. Doing it in March ensured good conditions, and that BTC would have some say over how the meet went down (like being able to push it back a day, that wouldn't happen at any big meet after WCs).
Why does it have to be one or the other? Why can’t Fisher run at world indoors and then chase records later? If there isn’t enough time between his 10k and the championships, move the 10k.
Rupp’s career doesn’t really support your argument. The first time he broke the 10k record was in 2011 which was a championship year (he ran 26:48 just 3 weeks after Daegu). He was at world indoors basically every year and still had many opportunities to time trial. In 2014, for example, he set records in the 2 mile and 5k before finishing 4th in the 3k in Sopot.
I understand that Fisher’s training may not have been optimal for an indoor 3k, but that’s precisely my issue. Why is he targeting the 10k record when he could be racing in a loaded field in Belgrade with a chance to pick up his first global medal?
If he did run world indoors, there's still a really good chance he doesn't medal. Placing 4th in an indoor 3k doesn't do him much good; There aren't really any incentives for him to do it. The 10k record, on the other hand, gets him a huge bonus from Nike, and is essentially guaranteed as long as he doesn't get injured. Plus, training for a 10k time trial in the spring gets him a WC qualifier, and sets him up really well to do great at WCs/potentially medal. Basically, there aren't many incentives to run world indoors, there are a ton to run a fast 10k.
Will he still be in monster shape after WCs? Yeah. But there's no guarantee that he'd get a good chance to run a fast 10k after WCs. Doing it in March ensured good conditions, and that BTC would have some say over how the meet went down (like being able to push it back a day, that wouldn't happen at any big meet after WCs).
Exactly this. When you're a pro runner, you want to maximize your paycheck. Grant talked about this on the LRC podcast, that he got the largest paycheck he had ever received from breaking the American record. I doubt even a bronze at world indoors would come close to that amount of money.
If we actually want athletes to take Indoor and Diamond league races seriously, then they need to be scheduled intelligently and they need to offer massive paychecks that incentivize athletes to run all of them. No pro tennis player would think of skipping a grand slam, since it would cost them so much money. The same should be true in track.
Why does it have to be one or the other? Why can’t Fisher run at world indoors and then chase records later? If there isn’t enough time between his 10k and the championships, move the 10k.
Rupp’s career doesn’t really support your argument. The first time he broke the 10k record was in 2011 which was a championship year (he ran 26:48 just 3 weeks after Daegu). He was at world indoors basically every year and still had many opportunities to time trial. In 2014, for example, he set records in the 2 mile and 5k before finishing 4th in the 3k in Sopot.
I understand that Fisher’s training may not have been optimal for an indoor 3k, but that’s precisely my issue. Why is he targeting the 10k record when he could be racing in a loaded field in Belgrade with a chance to pick up his first global medal?
If he did run world indoors, there's still a really good chance he doesn't medal. Placing 4th in an indoor 3k doesn't do him much good; There aren't really any incentives for him to do it. The 10k record, on the other hand, gets him a huge bonus from Nike, and is essentially guaranteed as long as he doesn't get injured. Plus, training for a 10k time trial in the spring gets him a WC qualifier, and sets him up really well to do great at WCs/potentially medal. Basically, there aren't many incentives to run world indoors, there are a ton to run a fast 10k.
Will he still be in monster shape after WCs? Yeah. But there's no guarantee that he'd get a good chance to run a fast 10k after WCs. Doing it in March ensured good conditions, and that BTC would have some say over how the meet went down (like being able to push it back a day, that wouldn't happen at any big meet after WCs).
Would running indoors only be worth it if Fisher was guaranteed a medal? Don’t you think there’s value in him racing some of the top athletes in the world, many of whom he’ll be facing in the 5k/10k later this year? And if not, what’s the point of running any championship race if you aren’t going to medal/win? Fisher could have just as easily targeted the 10k record (and a huge payday) last summer instead of going to Tokyo as he was obviously in great shape.
I’m still not understanding why you think he had to choose between running a fast 10k and doing indoor worlds. It’s hard to believe March 6 was really the only day this year that he could have gone after the 10k record. As we’ve seen many times, BTC can set up time trials whenever they want. There’s nothing stopping them from running an intrasquad meet like they’ve done in the past to chase records. They don’t have to rely on a big meet being held at the right time because they have enough talent within their team to do it on their own.
If he did run world indoors, there's still a really good chance he doesn't medal. Placing 4th in an indoor 3k doesn't do him much good; There aren't really any incentives for him to do it. The 10k record, on the other hand, gets him a huge bonus from Nike, and is essentially guaranteed as long as he doesn't get injured. Plus, training for a 10k time trial in the spring gets him a WC qualifier, and sets him up really well to do great at WCs/potentially medal. Basically, there aren't many incentives to run world indoors, there are a ton to run a fast 10k.
Will he still be in monster shape after WCs? Yeah. But there's no guarantee that he'd get a good chance to run a fast 10k after WCs. Doing it in March ensured good conditions, and that BTC would have some say over how the meet went down (like being able to push it back a day, that wouldn't happen at any big meet after WCs).
Would running indoors only be worth it if Fisher was guaranteed a medal? Don’t you think there’s value in him racing some of the top athletes in the world, many of whom he’ll be facing in the 5k/10k later this year? And if not, what’s the point of running any championship race if you aren’t going to medal/win? Fisher could have just as easily targeted the 10k record (and a huge payday) last summer instead of going to Tokyo as he was obviously in great shape.
I’m still not understanding why you think he had to choose between running a fast 10k and doing indoor worlds. It’s hard to believe March 6 was really the only day this year that he could have gone after the 10k record. As we’ve seen many times, BTC can set up time trials whenever they want. There’s nothing stopping them from running an intrasquad meet like they’ve done in the past to chase records. They don’t have to rely on a big meet being held at the right time because they have enough talent within their team to do it on their own.
I’m prepared for lots of down votes, so bring it on, but indoor worlds and indoor track in general is simply not worth the effort. There are plenty of places available to run outdoors all year round, why do we even bother with indoor competition for elite runners? I guess there are a few indoor meets of some historical interest, like Millrose, but it seems that the elite runners, their coaches and those that incentivize them financially agree more than not with this position. Indoor track makes sense when there is no other option, and I guess this is true in HS and to some extent college, but let’s just be real about it, nobody really cares about indoor running and this includes Fisher and the BTC.
Please name these countries that have 15 people as good as the Olympic 5th place finisher and 12:53/26:33 guy. They must not have internet or something, or this place does not exist.
Grant Fisher is in amazing shape.....but there is NO WAY he beats Hocker over 3k right now. In fact, if Hocker ever decides to focus on the 5k for a season, I have no doubt that Hocker would beat Fisher in the 5k.
Hocker ran 13:18 after 2 hard 1500s at NCAA's (battling Nuguse to the line). That was just off of 1500m training. If Hocker raced it fresh, he could have been 13:05-13:10. Don't forget that Hocker is almost 5 full seconds faster than Fisher in the 1500.
Grant Fisher is in amazing shape.....but there is NO WAY he beats Hocker over 3k right now. In fact, if Hocker ever decides to focus on the 5k for a season, I have no doubt that Hocker would beat Fisher in the 5k.
Hocker ran 13:18 after 2 hard 1500s at NCAA's (battling Nuguse to the line). That was just off of 1500m training. If Hocker raced it fresh, he could have been 13:05-13:10. Don't forget that Hocker is almost 5 full seconds faster than Fisher in the 1500.
That's a bit disrespectful. Hocker is a true kicker. There is no way Hocker has the strength to run with Fisher in a fast 3k or 5k. Hell, Hocker lost to Teare in a fast MILE.
Grant Fisher is in amazing shape.....but there is NO WAY he beats Hocker over 3k right now. In fact, if Hocker ever decides to focus on the 5k for a season, I have no doubt that Hocker would beat Fisher in the 5k.
Hocker ran 13:18 after 2 hard 1500s at NCAA's (battling Nuguse to the line). That was just off of 1500m training. If Hocker raced it fresh, he could have been 13:05-13:10. Don't forget that Hocker is almost 5 full seconds faster than Fisher in the 1500.
That's a bit disrespectful. Hocker is a true kicker. There is no way Hocker has the strength to run with Fisher in a fast 3k or 5k. Hell, Hocker lost to Teare in a fast MILE.
"Hocker is a true kicker" who got outkicked by his training partner and 5k specialist twice this year already.