How Many H.S. boys will go sub-4 this year? Could it be double digits?

But didn't Ryun run sub 4 four timds his senior year?

Colin Sahlman ran a 4.04.86 last year. He ran sub 4 this year. Last year Gary Martin dropped 6s from indoors to out. Sub 405 miles are fast. Will most of them drop 6s? Of course not. But they all have legit shots if they stay healthy and training keeps on progressing.

In the end you just hope we have a couple epic races and things fall where they fall.

I’ll say 4 total. NB peaked too soon. They are already heading backwards. Each race is worse than the prior race. Whether it’s injuries, sickness, or burn out is irrelevant.

I would dissagree with that absolute of a statement. Arcadia and the DMR "attempt" were underwhelming, but thats only because weve come to expect so much from them. Theyve been exceeding expectations at every race this year. When you were in highschool, were you consistently performing to your best ability every race? They're taking it lowkey for a while. Lets see what they run in June before we say that they peaked too early.

7

Yea I think a good half dozen or so have a "chance" but it has to be the right race, right weather, pacing, etc. So much needs to go 'right", which is why there surely have been capable runners who just didn't crack sub 4:00 in HS.

One team has a chance, I don't see it as great chance.

Alan

Yup, good point. I was trying to explain how runningart got to his figure of "In only ONE year has there been more than 2" but I missed that stat. Now I have no explanation.

How many of those will be wearing cheat shoes? Prediction - 100%!

jesus christ dude chill out. he didn't say he was going to bet his life savings on there being 10+ kids breaking 4. The OP is just speculating because so many kids are close the barrier, going to be a very exciting finish to the season!

Enough with the shoes. Every guy that ran 4:20 in HS prior to 2020 believes they’d have run 4:00 in Dragonfly’s!!!!

The shoes are a factor. Not saying these young runners aren't great but we have to reset all the records and all-time lists to adjust for the advantage the shoes give. Consider the NCAA 10K last year. 10 runners under a Nyambui record that stood for decades. The young runners are very good. The shoes are helping the times.

I have followed or personally watched most of these boys run over the past 2 years. Based on the indoor times from past sub 4 HS milers there truly are 10 or more boys who could POTENTIALLY run sub 4. But most likely only 3 or 4 will—High School track seasons are not set up to support optimum peak performance. My guess is Colin, Martin, Harrison and one wildcard will finish sub 4–but many more could if that were their primary goal.

1. Weather and timing are key. I truly believe that anyone who ran sub 4:05 Indoor this year could potentially run 3:59.99 in PERFECT race conditions outdoor.

2. the problem is scheduling/timing. Most of these boys have ‘team’ responsibilities to prioritize. Invites, sectionals, regionals, state championships…running every weekend in multiple events is not conducive to training for and peaking for a 3:59.

3. The national meets are not conducive to running fast mid/long distance times—they are designed as marketing platforms and money makers. Yes the national meets often cover costs for the top athletes to attend (in order to lure every other paying customer who can now enter the Emerging Elite, Freshman Race, Junior High Race, and who knows what new relay event…) But these Championship mid/distance races tend to be run at 4:00 PM in full sun and 90 degree heat with only a few of the actual top runners present.

4. IMO If we really wanted to see 10 kids potentially challenge for sub 4 we should organize a race the last week of June, to be run at dusk at Stanford (or another mild climate, low humidity, fast track location). This gives them the chance to recover slightly from a busy May racing season and we are 90% assured that the weather and field of runners would be ideal. But unfortunately this will never happen because the HS Seniors will feel the need to begin their XC training base in June to prepare for college….

So we will probably never know just how many of these kids could have done it. But considering 9 of the top 20 All-Time indoor HS miles on MileSplit were run this year, I’d say this is a special class regardless of how many end up doing it.

You’re talking about last year?? These dozen runners have all ran the mile this year. 12 ppl are not on track to run 3:59 or better come on now. We’re being realistic

In only one year has there been more than 2 HS runners break 4......2016. I'm not counting 1500m conversions because thats silly.

en.m.wikipedia.org

List of American high school students who have run a four-minute mile

This is a list of American high school students who have run a four-minute mile since the feat was first accomplished in 1964. The first person to run the mile (1,760 yards, or 1,609.344 metres) in under four minutes was Roge...

Link:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Americ...

Alan

Oop!! I miscounted, old eyes!

So even better! There has NEVER been more than 2 HS students break 4 in a season.

Alan

But there has NEVER been a year with this much talent. 9 of the fastest MileSplit indoor miles All Time we’re run this year!!! And that doesn’t include 3 of the NP guys or multiple other low 4 runners who didn’t run indoors this year.