Predictions for this weekends mens Millrose Wanamaker Mile

cramister wrote:

Romo sub 3:55

Why do you think that?

cramister wrote:

How is a 3:35 worth 3:57 on a 200 banked track?

IAAF Scoring Table:

3:35.79 1500m outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:52.89 mile outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:39.52 1500m indoors is worth 1164 points

3:57.39 mile indoors is worth 1164 points

2:20.12 1000m indoors is worth 1136 points

3:59.54 mile indoors is worth 1136 points

2:20 1k indoors is not that strong. Cruz Culpepper also ran 2:20 in the same race.

GreatDane1 wrote:

My money is on Josh Kerr for the win, with a tight 2nd/3rd place finish between Ollie Hoare and Hobbs Kessler. Nick Willis will be a bit back but get his sub 4! Whose everyone else got?

Loaded field, it's so hard choosing a favorite but lowkey want Ollie to win. The thing with indoor racing, it's so tactical in the sense that those with experience usually win. Excited nonetheless.

1. Ollie Hoare 3:51.5

2. Josh Kerr 3:52.6

3. Craig Engels 3:53.2

4. Colby Alexander 3:53.7

5. Sam Prakel 3:54.0

5. Henry Wynne 3:54.9

6. Clayton Murphy 3:55.3

8. Hobbs Kessler 3:55.7

9. Mario Garcia Romo 3:55.9

10. Johnny Gregorek 3:56.1

11. Andrew Coscoran 3:57.3

12. Nick Willis 3:58.6

I’ve tweaked my prediction from another thread I started, mostly just adding late entrants Prakel and Gregorek and subtracting Charles Philibert-Thiboutot.

Put Kessler in 3rd in 353 . Otherwise not too bad here

i think hoare is gonna do it, but it'll be close with kerr. i don't see kessler placing that high.

Ollie Hoare 3:52.23

Josh Kerr 3:53.18

Colby Alexander 3:55.87

Samuel Prakel 3:56.61

Henry Wynne 3:56.69

Hobbs Kessler 3:56.94

Clayton Murphy 3:57.05

Johnny Gregorek 3:57.21

Craig Engels 3:57.76

Mario Garcia 3:58.79

Andrew Coscoran 3:58.84

Nick Willis 3:59.98

Similar to John Wesley Harding, this is similar to a post I've done before just with the additional Prakel and Gregorek. I changed Willis' time to a 3:59.98, which was about 3 seconds slower than I had originally thought. Seeing the full line-ups in all of the races, I think we're in for a treat on the 29th.

I want to see Kessler succeed as much as the next person but let’s be realistic. This is his first real race since last summer. He doesn’t have a lot of racing experience at the pro level and this is his first race of the year…indoors. If he breaks 3:55 it’s a great race but realistically he will be middle of the pack.

Master Of Lolly wrote:

cramister wrote:

How is a 3:35 worth 3:57 on a 200 banked track?

IAAF Scoring Table:

3:35.79 1500m outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:52.89 mile outdoors is worth 1164 points

3:39.52 1500m indoors is worth 1164 points

3:57.39 mile indoors is worth 1164 points

2:20.12 1000m indoors is worth 1136 points

3:59.54 mile indoors is worth 1136 points

2:20 1k indoors is not that strong. Cruz Culpepper also ran 2:20 in the same race.

I give you credit. You posted a reference for your comments. That is refreshing on these boards.

It’s interesting tho, when you look at our best Americans each year and the times they run indoors and later outdoors, it just doesn’t jive with the IAAF scoring tables.

Look at how many people can break 2:20 for 1000 each year indoors. It’s not many, and most of them run barely under 2:20. If that equals 3:59, then look at how many athletes run 3:59 or better indoors. It’s a boatload. A 3:59 won’t even sniff an NCAA berth. A 2:20 is actually very, very competitive indoors. A 3:59, not so much these days.

The tables say a 3:57 mile indoor is like a 3:35 1500 outdoor. A 3:35 1500 meter guy would be one of our very best outdoor 1500 runners every year. These guys run anywhere from 3:50 (Gregorek, Prakel) to 3:55 indoors for the mile. A 3:57 mile barely qualifies for NCAA’s. Basically, if all you can muster indoors is a 3:57 mile, there is absolutely no way you will be anywhere close to 3:35 outdoors. Not a chance.

So, the tables are what they are, but on the surface, I’m wondering what they were smoking when they designed them.

So Colby is going to win ?

Interesting field. I don’t think any of these athletes would expose themselves to the sound thrashing they would experience should they show up out of racing shape. In other words, they are all very fit, otherwise they wouldn’t be lacing up for the most prestigious mile on the planet.

Logically you would pick Kerr and Hoare at 1-2. But then, there is good-plated talent running up their heels. Gregorek and Prakel have run 3:49 and 3:50 indoors in their careers. Murphy is, well…Murphy. Engels has a World indoor final on his resume and Wynn ran 3:34 flat last year. That is fast.

Kessler is tricky to predict. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he mixed it up with the best of these guys. He’s ultra-talented and built low to the ground. Perfect low center of gravity for indoors.

Alexander…he’s the wild card. He never runs indoors. He’s always hurt. He’s only made sporadic indoor appearances indoors over his entire career. So, I’m guessing he’s in good shape. He ran, basically, a solo 3:33 outdoors last year. Only Hocker was faster for Americans (Engels also ran 3:33). He’ll be fun to watch. He’ll definitely be in the mix.

Willis will break 4:00.

Would be surprised if anyone goes under 3:53. Hobbs a few strides back of the leaders. Nick Willis hangs on for 3:58. Clayton Murphy 4:10

raging clue wrote:

I want to see Kessler succeed as much as the next person but let’s be realistic. This is his first real race since last summer. He doesn’t have a lot of racing experience at the pro level and this is his first race of the year…indoors. If he breaks 3:55 it’s a great race but realistically he will be middle of the pack.

Yeah. It won’t come as some huge surprise if he runs 3:53.0 for 3rd, but to expect it at this point is unfair and, dare I say, unwise betting. My premonition is that he and Willis will more or less take up the rear for the first 1,000m, at which point Kessler will be looking to move up and Willis will be trying to hang on. Kessler will do well to out-kick a couple guys in the last lap and run 3:55.xx for 7th-9th.

Later this year, sure, maybe he runs 3:32.9 and places 3rd at USAs and goes out in the semis at Worlds. But all in due time.

I really hope some Americans smack Kerr. Hate his smug personality he displays on his little podcast. Too bad Teare or Hocker aren’t in the race to give him a run

Three Oregon Ducks…Gregorek, Alexander, Prakel

Three Ohio natives…Alexander, Prakel, Murphy

Ostritch wrote:

I really hope some Americans smack Kerr. Hate his smug personality he displays on his little podcast. Too bad Teare or Hocker aren’t in the race to give him a run

Like Hocker did in Tokyo 😅

He isn't on the same level as Josh,even with only 1 test in the 2 years before then so he has even less chance now.

Spraw wrote:

Look at how many people can break 2:20 for 1000 each year indoors. It’s not many, and most of them run barely under 2:20. If that equals 3:59, then look at how many athletes run 3:59 or better indoors. It’s a boatload. A 3:59 won’t even sniff an NCAA berth. A 2:20 is actually very, very competitive indoors. A 3:59, not so much these days.

171 runners have broken 2:20 indoors, 38 Americans alone.

The year Centro ran 2:17 1k, he ran 3:51 mile, so running 2:20 would be worth 3:56 for him.

The year Lagat ran 2:18 1k, he ran 3:54 mile, so running 2:20 would be worth 3:57 for him.

The year Murphy ran 2:18 1k, he ran 3:54 mile, so running 2:20 would be worth 3:57 for him.

Napolitano ran 2:18 and 3:56 the same indoor season.

Engels ran 2:19 and 3:54 the same indoor season.

So i guess it would be safe to say that 2:20 translates to roughly 3:56 - 3:57 for Americans.

Also and important detail is that Romo and Culpepper ran that 2:20 on the oversized track (300m). So that's 2:21, maybe even 2:22 on the regular (200m) track.

Master of LolIy wrote:

trackislife12 wrote:

Romo is a 3:35 guy and already ran a 2:20 1k this year, he will be well under 4.

His 2:20 1k equates to 3:59 mile. His 3:35 1500m outdoors equates to 3:57 indoors.

The best I could see him do at the moment is 3:56.

That's not really "just dipping under 4'"....

KAV wrote:

Master of LolIy wrote:

His 2:20 1k equates to 3:59 mile. His 3:35 1500m outdoors equates to 3:57 indoors.

The best I could see him do at the moment is 3:56.

That's not really "just dipping under 4'"....

Well I believe that 3:56 would be terrific and beyond expectations. But most likely Romo will manage 3:58 - 3:59 at best. This is a loaded field, small indoor track, lots of shoving.

His 2:20 on the oversized track with one pacer and two runners does not translate to much faster in my book.