tlm1959 wrote:
Isn't the Omricon variant relevant here? It appears that this variant 1) allows for many more breakthrough infections 2) has a high R(t), 3) is rapidly displacing Delta, and 4) is less severe.
This is all tentative. The current surprising fall-off in South Africa is very surprising in that it grew quickly, not for long enough to infect a lot of the population, yet cases have slowed down.
I don't think the models explain disorientingly fast but mercifully short. Poor testing? Underreporting due to less severe symptoms? Are the models just wrong? The population is not necessarily homogenous.
One of the problems here is that the government makes rules and they simply don't have enough information to make good rules. And if they did have good information, would the government still make good rules?
Part of the government overreaction is that COVID has shown politicians get hammered in the court of public opinion more for a slight “underreaction” than a massive “overreaction”.
So if the Netherlands strictly shuts down for say six months and that turns out to be a overreaction in retrospect the media will say things like “well the government was just trying to save lives” whereas if the government decided not to shutdown the media will say explosive things like “they have blood on their hands” or “they killed grandma!”
So now we’re stuck in this terrible cycle where politicians are actually rewarded by the media for their draconian shutdowns and blatant power grabs and are punished by the media for allowing a free society where citizens can move award and gather freely. And you usually won’t have to twist the arm of a politician to take more power from people.