NCAA Predicted Women's Individual top 10

semihaze wrote:

im quite concerned about nc state, they are my team but unfortunately their number 3 runner hannah steelman isnt as strong as last year (she finished 5th in the prev xc nationals)

its been only katelyn and kelsey who's been really tested this year, hannah has not ran much nor ran well (as to what is expected of her as a senior and as last year's 5th placer) their other seniors shaw and clairmonte has not ran well either

7empest wrote:

semihaze wrote:

im quite concerned about nc state, they are my team but unfortunately their number 3 runner hannah steelman isnt as strong as last year (she finished 5th in the prev xc nationals)

its been only katelyn and kelsey who's been really tested this year, hannah has not ran much nor ran well (as to what is expected of her as a senior and as last year's 5th placer) their other seniors shaw and clairmonte has not ran well either

The only concern should be that NC State is the favorite but BYU, CO, and NM could all win. It will be a hell of a battle.

As for Steelman, don’t worry. She is just as good if not a little better. Chmiel and Tuohy are just that much better this season. It just seems Steelman is not performing in light of Chmiel and Tuohy’s huge improvement. I don’t expect Steelman to be #5 in the nation this year, but that is because the upfront runners this season are so much better this season compared to last season. Chmiel will be top 10 and Tuohy and Steelman will be top 15. And NC state’s 4 and 5 will be top 30. That should be enough to barely win the title in a nail bitter!

Based on regionals and the season don’t expect Shaw to be on the line. Based on the list at regionals, my prediction for the team on the line this Saturday will be 7 of 8 below: Chmiel, Tuohy, Steelman, Hayes, Bush, Clairmonte, Starliper, or Holt.

my regionals takeaways:

Great Lakes - Markezich and Denner came out of nowhere for Notre Dame. Believe that Markezich ran a 2:59 last kilometer of the race which is extremely impressive. Denner only 9th at ACC and 21 at nutty so we'll see if this is an outlier performance or she will turn some heads at nationals. Jenna Magness seems to be slipping a little, 4th at nutty and now 4th in her region, but we will see. High school phenom Katelynne hart had her best race of season to finish 6th.

Mid Atlantic - Ceili McCabe again ran away with ease from the competition, winning by 11 seconds after a late move in the race. She is a top 3 competitor for nationals, especially if its more tactical. Lydia Olivere only 57 at nutty and placed 4th here today, 20 sec back of McCabe, which would have placed her 10th at nutty if she held that same time gap. Corman and Donaghue look strong, but how strong I'm not so sure. Maybe both all American contention but not sure if they can contend in the top 20.

Midwest - Roe and Logue still look interchangeable and solid top 8 contenders, although Roe's championship season accolades are better. Wouldn't be surprised if she was top 5 again this year, same with Logue but she has tanked at nationals before. Bethany Hasz bounced back after a bad race at Big ten, but Megan Hasz and Kohut Jackson are much closer than they've ever been. Not sure if this is a sign of their improvements or Hasz slightly off form.

Mountain - Oneil has been really strong this year, with her worst place being fourth at Pre Nats. She has beaten the entire Colorado, BYU, and NM teams, including Camp, Nichols, and other proven runners like Forbes and Kimeli. Tierney Wolfgram ran the best XC race of her life, after finishing 9th at MNTN West and 12th at Griak. Happy the high school marathon prodigy has transitioned well to college 6ks, even when her event focus is much longer. Nichols continues to look strong but shows she isn't invincible after 2 straight wins. The NM women seem to always change their position so can't really pick out their top individual runner. Mazza Downie struggled after winning mountain west. Their pack now looks far more vulnerable. Summer Allen definitely seems to not look in top ten shape unlike last year. BYU looks very vulnerable to me, with Halladay not in the lineup any more and Orton still racing sparingly. Alison Pray looks to be a top 20 contender.

Northeast - Personally watched this one in Boston. delay got out to an early lead then Vestri went into cruise control, crushing the competition on a difficult, wet course. She looks to be in the shape of her life, and didn't seem to be pressing too hard either. top ten contender in my eyes. IVY champ Delay held strong and also separated from the rest. Emily Mackay also looked really strong. Harvard women surprised, and shoutout to the top Stonybrook woman for falling extremely hard and popping right back up.

South - Chelangat wins easily as expected. Valby having an impressive race, finishing second after only placing 36 at Notre Dame. Last two races have been really good and seems to be running with confidence. Kimeli looks good, Seymour surprising, where is Tyynismaa? Lauren Ryan seems to be hit or miss, but nationals at home should play into her hands.

Part 2 coming below

collegiateathlete101 wrote:

my regionals takeaways:

I think I could have written this myself! My only add is given some of the outlier performances I have questions about some of the courses, and how much all of the athletes were really trying. Nichols was interviewed by Dyestat and pretty much said she and her team were just going thru the motions.

Part 2

South Central - Grace Forbes dusted the field, going sub 20 and separating after 3k. Gregory takes third, seemingly bouncing back after slightly disastrous SEC meet. She was much stronger at Pre Nats and Dellinger so we will so how it plays out at nattys. Never really heard of Logan Jolly before but clearly had a standout meet here. Van Camp looked solid, outside top 4-5 I don't think anyone else is in all American contention.

collegiateathlete101 wrote:

Part 2

South Central - Grace Forbes dusted the field, going sub 20 and separating after 3k. Gregory takes third, seemingly bouncing back after slightly disastrous SEC meet. She was much stronger at Pre Nats and Dellinger so we will so how it plays out at nattys. Never really heard of Logan Jolly before but clearly had a standout meet here. Van Camp looked solid, outside top 4-5 I don't think anyone else is in all American contention.

Logan Jolly was Logan Morris

I'd put money on Valby top 15

I'm pretty sure that Orton and Halladay (and McKenna Lee) will be at nationals. I don't know who will win nationals, but it's important to remember that regionals isn't really an important race for the top teams. They're just trying to get through it before the real race a week later.

Flavian wrote:

I'd put money on Valby top 15

I agree!!!

Even 2015 New Mexico, the greatest women's cross country team ever, didn't really try to win regionals. They finished second, one point behind No. 2 Colorado, as the Lobos ran in a pack and didn't use Alice Wright. At nationals a week later, they scored just 49 points, Wright finished fifth in the nation, and New Mexico dusted Colorado by a whopping 80 points.

Has anyone confirmed that Starliper is over the injury/in race shape? Seems odd that they would not run her at regionals (where NC State was basically guaranteed to perform well regardless), but would consider running her in Nationals. Also, would this not burn a year of eligibility from her?

Would be great to see her.. just seems very unlikely though.

MARLEE STARLIPER is not burning a year of eligibility just to run the NCAA XC championships. If she is healthy enough to race, she would have raced regionals. This season is not a free season like last year.

FastTuohy wrote:

collegiateathlete101 wrote:

Part 2

South Central - Grace Forbes dusted the field, going sub 20 and separating after 3k. Gregory takes third, seemingly bouncing back after slightly disastrous SEC meet. She was much stronger at Pre Nats and Dellinger so we will so how it plays out at nattys. Never really heard of Logan Jolly before but clearly had a standout meet here. Van Camp looked solid, outside top 4-5 I don't think anyone else is in all American contention.

Logan Jolly was Logan Morris

that makes much more sense, I was wondering how I hadn't heard of her before, especially with such high quality prs.

7empest wrote:

Flavian wrote:

I'd put money on Valby top 15

I agree!!!

definitely a possibility. she ran gutsy at SECs and she's only gotten better as the season progresses

That's what I was thinking too. I think she is on the roster just because there is a point where running her would make sense to get the team win (if multiple NC State runners fell ill or something). I think it is unlikely she will run. I would think she would want 4 full seasons, but who knows. Maybe getting in on a potential team championship is worth a season of eligibility to her. If she is 100% she would help. She is a consistent runner and tough competitor.

Cmon guys, starliper hasn't run or even been at meets, she probably won't run this school year.... not so sure that Steelman is going to be top 20 or even 30, it happens a lot that you great one year and then you regress or injured, also I think a lot of girls run good early and then don't show up for Nationals, we'll see what happens this year

My Projected Top 25:

1.(1) Mercy Chelangat, JR-Alabama

2.(2) Whittni Orton, SR-BYU

3.(3) Ceili McCabe, SO-West Virginia

4.(4) Kelsey Chmiel, SO-NC State

5.(5) Cailie Logue, SR-Iowa State

6.(6) Taylor Roe, JR-OK State

7.(7) Taryn O'Neill, JR-Northern Arizona

8.(8) Grace Forbes, SO-Rice

9.(-) Alison Pray, SR-So. Utah

10.(-) Tierney Wolfgram, FR-Nevada

11.(9) Katelyn Tuohy, FR-NC State

12.(-) Joyce Kimeli, SR-Auburn

13.(10) Jenna Magness, SR-Mich State

14.(11) Bethany Hasz, SR-Minnesota

15.(-) Parker Valby, FR-Florida

16.(12) Abby Nichols, SR-Colorado

17.(13) Amanda Vestri, SR-Syracuse

18.(14) Anna Camp, SR-BYU

19.(-) Bethany Graham, FR-Furman

20.(-) Joy Chirchir, FR-Toledo

21.(15) Gracelyn Larkin, SO-New Mexico

22.(16) Aubrey Frentheway, SO-BYU

23.(17) Megan Hasz, SR-Minnesota

24.(18) Lauren Ryan, SR-FL State

25.(19) Hannah Steelman, SR-NC State

That's a reasonable top 25 expectation. I'd also say that at least 5 of them (who knows which 5) won't be in the top 25, I'd probably expect at least 2 -3 more New Mexico runners in the top 30. I'd also expect at least 1 runner outside the top 5 to be in the top 3 and one outside the top 10 to at least come close to a top 5 finish. It should be fun to watch.

I agree....so many good runners out there that could put out a solid run....Camp, Graham, Hasz, Magness, Nichols, Kimeli....any could finish in the top 5 and it wouldn't be a surprise. I do think Steelman will have a strong race.

It will be interesting to see if anyone tries to take off early and push the pace.