Probability of a Young Young HS / NCAA individual championship in the same year?

^ This

I don't see him winning at xc nationals this year either, but I would say that in xc when people are holding back and tempoing or at least pack running, you don't know their true strength. A national title wouldn't be out of the question in the next few years and he has been as strong as Nur, who ran 27:47 last year; that time's not much outside of Mantz's; and his improvement curve should be higher than Mantz's. But the key really is that while he ran 13:24 as a freshman and paced Nur's 27:47, he's not going to be red-lining at nationals because the team needs three guys to go top ten to win.

runnER/DR wrote:

Keep in mind the following guys beat Nico at prenats: Victor Kiprop, Abdihamid Nur, Dylan Jacobs, Drew Bosley, Eduardo Herrera, Casey Clinger.

Also guys like Amon Kemboi and Ahmed Muhumed were very close to beating him there.

In addition, Cooper Teare and Charles Hicks weren't at prenats.

Nico is very good. But the field is very strong this year. It's possible for him to get 10th even with an average day. He'll need a fantastic race to get 4th again.

Maybe you guys need to re=evaluate now, Nico just finished 2nd to Mantz, only 1.2 seconds back, beating Clinger, Allen, Herrera, Nur, Bosley. A quick 29:40.

With BYU beating NAU in the team race I have to imagine that Coach Smith will allow Nico to race with Mantz if he is able. No sense in giving up free points to your main rival when a team title is on the line.

runnER/DR wrote:

Keep in mind the following guys beat Nico at prenats: Victor Kiprop, Abdihamid Nur, Dylan Jacobs, Drew Bosley, Eduardo Herrera, Casey Clinger.

Also guys like Amon Kemboi and Ahmed Muhumed were very close to beating him there.

In addition, Cooper Teare and Charles Hicks weren't at prenats.

Nico is very good. But the field is very strong this year. It's possible for him to get 10th even with an average day. He'll need a fantastic race to get 4th again.

Guys finish so close together in NCAA cross country regional and championship meets that you could run a race 50 times and get different results each time. If not...they should just end the season at Prenats.

Young did close the gap. He had a great race, 1.2 s back of Mantz, putting him in the picture for the national individual title. Nur was a little subpar, 10 seconds back, Bosley ran well, about where he was expected, and Raff was the big surprise, running thirteenth and not far behind Bosley. With Quax in 26th, they finished with 57 points, 15 back of BYU. Add George Kusche back into the mix at nationals and who knows? Kusche could well have finished the 21 seconds ahead of Quax that would have given NAU the victory (10th or 11th place he would have been in), so it'll be close. Young will go for top five but going for the victory will not be in the cards, I think, simply because it can gain the team only two or three points but at the risk of costing the team a lot more if he blows up. I'd like to see both Nur and Young going hard, but again pack running wins championships.

jonesy22 wrote:

runnER/DR wrote:

Keep in mind the following guys beat Nico at prenats: Victor Kiprop, Abdihamid Nur, Dylan Jacobs, Drew Bosley, Eduardo Herrera, Casey Clinger.

Also guys like Amon Kemboi and Ahmed Muhumed were very close to beating him there.

In addition, Cooper Teare and Charles Hicks weren't at prenats.

Nico is very good. But the field is very strong this year. It's possible for him to get 10th even with an average day. He'll need a fantastic race to get 4th again.

Maybe you guys need to re=evaluate now, Nico just finished 2nd to Mantz, only 1.2 seconds back, beating Clinger, Allen, Herrera, Nur, Bosley. A quick 29:40.

Well I only give Mantz a 1 in 3 chance of winning the title. And he's the HUGE favorite. There's just too much talent this year.

Nico Young has never beaten Mantz. Not once. I still say 1 in 100 odds for Nico especially with team tactics NAU will need. He would have to swing for the fences just to have an outside shot of beating Mantz, Kiptoo, Teare, Wildschutt, Hicks and even his own teammates. Not impossible. But any of those guys listed above have equal or better odds.

Looking back NAU fourth and fifth runners from conference did not run at regionals, how much difference that makes we will find out. Instead of fifth runner being 26 th He’s now the seventh runner. Remember idea of regionals is to qualify with less amount of effort possible. This year there are several teams that could win the championship. The team that puts it all together will win this year, there is no dominant team. Just my two cents worth.

jonesy22 wrote:

runnER/DR wrote:

Keep in mind the following guys beat Nico at prenats: Victor Kiprop, Abdihamid Nur, Dylan Jacobs, Drew Bosley, Eduardo Herrera, Casey Clinger.

Also guys like Amon Kemboi and Ahmed Muhumed were very close to beating him there.

In addition, Cooper Teare and Charles Hicks weren't at prenats.

Nico is very good. But the field is very strong this year. It's possible for him to get 10th even with an average day. He'll need a fantastic race to get 4th again.

Maybe you guys need to re=evaluate now, Nico just finished 2nd to Mantz, only 1.2 seconds back, beating Clinger, Allen, Herrera, Nur, Bosley. A quick 29:40.

Additional considerations: Kieran Lumb (just beat teare and hicks west regionals) at and possibly Athanas Kioko (wins southeast handelly and a 13:13 from outdoors 2021) towards the front for Nico to contend with.

Percent win?

Ncaa nationals

Mantz 35%

Kiptoo 25%

Wildschutt 10%

Young 5%

Kioko 5%

Teare 5%

Hicks 3%

Lumb 2%

Other 10%

HS running lane nationals

Sahlman 30%

Leo Young 25%

Lex Young 15%

Other 30%

That puts the combined % at 2.

epicTCK wrote:

jonesy22 wrote:

Maybe you guys need to re=evaluate now, Nico just finished 2nd to Mantz, only 1.2 seconds back, beating Clinger, Allen, Herrera, Nur, Bosley. A quick 29:40.

Additional considerations: Kieran Lumb (just beat teare and hicks west regionals) at and possibly Athanas Kioko (wins southeast handelly and a 13:13 from outdoors 2021) towards the front for Nico to contend with.

There is definitely a lot of depth this year. I put Mantz and Kiptoo as co favorites, then Wildscuitt. I think Nico as a strong 4th but with a chance to win it, he seems to be peaking at the perfect time. as for teams, I think BYU looks very strong, probably co-favorites with NAU and Notre Dame. NAU didn't run everyone today.

Yes there are two championships so the math is correct. Yes?

Tonight we are Young wrote:

Percent win?

Ncaa nationals

Mantz 35%

Kiptoo 25%

Wildschutt 10%

Young 5%

Kioko 5%

Teare 5%

Hicks 3%

Lumb 2%

Other 10%

HS running lane nationals

Sahlman 30%

Leo Young 25%

Lex Young 15%

Other 30%

Teare at 5%???? he's been getting beat bad all season. 0% chance he wins.

He’s Cooper Teare bro. Legendary runner. Possibly the next Galen Rupp.

In case you forgot

Tonight we are Young wrote:

He’s Cooper Teare bro. Legendary runner. Possibly the next Galen Rupp.

Lol. Sorry but not true.

Tonight we are Young wrote:

https://youtu.be/2nQWTDqP4fM

In case you forgot

In case you forgot, XC Nats is twice the distance and on grass