Mile WR in jeopardy at the Bowerman Mile?

The Eugene stadium was just opened this spring, so the track is new. With good weather, and if they are fresh, they could run very fast. There is another heat wave in the Pacific Northwest now with temps of 111 degrees possible in two days in parts of Oregon. An obstacle is the fact that there has never been a really fast mile in Eugene. European meets usually get the really fast miles. But they still have another week and two days to cool down. However, on the down side, they usually run the Saturday mile in the hottest part of the afternoon. The Bowerman Mile is scheduled for 2:50 p.m. on Saturday the 21st. So, that will be an obstacle unless it cools down radically. In my view, these guys have more than proved their capability of running 3:28-29 at various tracks, not just Tokyo. Ingebrigtsen is ready to run 3:27, and so he should be ready to run 3:44 in good conditions. Having Cheruiyot there plus pacers and fresh could lead to a fast one, obviously, since Cheruiyot does not have an incentive to leave it to the kick. Worst case, he goes out hard, then slows it down to 1320y, which is pretty much what he did after the Lausanne meet. Cheruiyot did pace Jakob from 400m to about 1400m, or 1k, but Jakob did take the first lap pace.

Cheruiyot cited a hamstring, not a calf. Kipsang was the one who said he injured his calf in the semi.

3:28.3 is equivalent to 3:44.96 by 1.08 conversion factor. Jakob eased up the last 20m and was not full out.

arunaround wrote:

Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.

A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.

Right. El G went through 1500 at 3:28 without kicking. None of these guys is at that level at the moment. Especially since non have run 3:48 any time ever

vella48 wrote:

arunaround wrote:

Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.

A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.

Right. El G went through 1500 at 3:28 without kicking. None of these guys is at that level at the moment. Especially since non have run 3:48 any time ever

I agree that the world record is still out of reach, but the fact that neither Cheruiyot nor Ingebrigtsen has run 3:48 yet isn’t even relevant. McSweyn ran 3:48 earlier this year and those two are clearly on another level. Their 1500m times are already equivalent to sub-3:45 for the mile. If they run all out with good pacing, expect 3:44 for the winner.

jakothy cherubrigtsen wrote:

vella48 wrote:

Right. El G went through 1500 at 3:28 without kicking. None of these guys is at that level at the moment. Especially since non have run 3:48 any time ever

I agree that the world record is still out of reach, but the fact that neither Cheruiyot nor Ingebrigtsen has run 3:48 yet isn’t even relevant. McSweyn ran 3:48 earlier this year and those two are clearly on another level. Their 1500m times are already equivalent to sub-3:45 for the mile. If they run all out with good pacing, expect 3:44 for the winner.

Don't you know how about half of this forum thinks? If someone has run 3:49, then they are a 3:49 guy.

Very important to have a high quality rabbit. Have Centro take them through 3/4 in 2:48

Does anyone know if:

1) There will be pacing lights

2) There will be pacers

I don't remember if these are allowed in Diamond League events or not. It will be fun to hear if they announce the planned pace if these are intact.

Not getting my hopes up. The pacing is always bad at Pre, and I don't think they'll have pace lights. They would need a strong pacer through 1200.

Betting Sowinski takes them through 1k.

3:48.1 for the win. Jakob.

Hocker will run 3:49 but will get credit for 3:46 because of his shape and thus claims the AR. 😂

aIIez wrote:

arunaround wrote:

Nobody has come within even 3.5 seconds of El Guerrouj’s 3’43.13” mile WR in the 22 years since 1999, the closest was Alan Webb’s 3’46.91” in 2007.

A 3’28” 1500m is not quite enough to translate to a 3’43” mile, much as 15 more seconds may seem enough to cover an additional 109m. Anything’s *possible* of course, but a sub-3’46” is a more realistic aspiration for those two champs.

3:42.3 or something equates to 4:00.

3:25.4 or so would equate to 3:43.1, then.

3:28.XX is more like 3:46.

The inefficiency factor approach in converting 1500 to a mile is a thumb rule, but doesn’t help place hard bounds. The Guerrouj ran his best 1500 in exactly 3’26”, so that was obviously sufficient for his own 3’43.13”.

deeeeep wrote:

Ingebrigtsen and Cheruiyot, both in top form from the Olympics (I can't believe they would've lost significant fitness since last week) in a race without qualifying rounds... seems possible.

3:48 at best. It is run at 3pm with wind and heat, post Olympic peak.

xczvzxcv wrote:

3:28.3 is equivalent to 3:44.96 by 1.08 conversion factor. Jakob eased up the last 20m and was not full out.

The conversion factor approach is rather crude. With a 3’28”+ 1500 PB, Ngeny ran a 3’43.40” mile, but the Guerrouj took 3’26” to get to 3’43.13”. Some more PB data (rounded down) to chew on below, which basically says you can’t place a predictive bound on someone’s mile PB to even within 3 seconds based on their 1500 PB because the relationship across athletes is nonmonotonic (a lower/higher 1500 PB does not necessarily imply a lower/higher mile PB):

Lagat: 3’26” -> 3’47”

Kiprop 3’26” -> 3’48

Morcelli 3’27” -> 3’44”

Ngeny 3’28” -> 3’43”

PreClassic always fails to get world best times for distance races because it's run in the mid-afternoon. The exception is the distance races the night before which saw Mo go 26:46 for 10000m.

The mile is at 2:50 PM. Poor choice! You can't run a WR at 2:50 pm in the blazing heat.

Rome 3:43 was done at night. The 2000m WR was done at night. The 1500m WR was done at night.

Many of the previous WRs were at night including Oslo, Brussels, Koblenz, Zurich, Gothernburg, etc.. only exception maybe was Rieti with Morceli but that way way later than 2:50 PM

Pre Classic needs to be an evening primetime event. Put that on Saturday Night Primetime on NBC.

Smoke from the wildfires is going to wreck this meet. Watch the air quality. Would not be surprised to see people pull out.

Deanouk wrote:

Luv2Run wrote:

Total Running Production did a YouTube video of the chances based off his (Jakob's) splits in Tokyo.

He certainly is threat to the record. He ran pretty damn fast without a pacer or pacing lights.

What!? He had the best pacer, in Cheruiyot, he could possibly have, offering him drafting to 1300m. When the Kenyan runs opening splits of 42.0, 55.8 and 55.7, there is no need for pacing lights. There are many other champions from the past who would have managed a 3:28 in an Olympic final with that kind of pacing; especially on a track that gave an extra 1% advantage in time.

OK, Jye Edwards ran 3.49 in Oslo. And Cheruiyot usually does not change tactics (due to his long strides) But perhaps this time. With good pacemakers sub 3.45 for Jakob and Tim a sec behind. But no WR.

Ingebrigtsen is a doper, who cares.