Rai Benjamin has a better chance of winning gold in 2024 if he switches to the 800m right now

1500/5Kfan wrote:

he has virtually no chance to unseat warholm. might as well move up. he could run 1:42 mid or faster in three years if he committed to it now

Typical silver spoon suburbanite American "logic": When the going gets hard, run for the hills.

Benjamin is fine where he's at. Warholm is not invincible. Anybody can be beat.

Slay the dragon: End of story.

By the time Wariner tried the 800m, he was a 46s guy at best and long past when he might have run 1:43 or better.

No. Benjamin is almost a year and a half younger and faster than Warholm at 100, 200 and 400. He just needs to keep working hard. Warholm has much less upside.

I am sure this thread was started by someone at letsrun management or someone started this thread in jest.

Moving up from 400m is a conversation to be had with college athletes who currently specializing in 400m whom are racing 400m in 46.xx to 51.xx range. Surely O.P. does not expect Rai Benjamin to cease specializing as a 400m hurdler to race 800m. Currently, R. Benjamin does not have to worry about another athlete elbowing him in the ribs, tripping him, someone stepping on his foot, worry about being forced to race in lane 3 over the final 250m or worry about being boxed in. I guarrantee Rai Benjamin is not moving up to 800m. Will R. Benjamin race 400m on occasion? Yes he will.

Les wrote:

No. Benjamin is almost a year and a half younger and faster than Warholm at 100, 200 and 400. He just needs to keep working hard. Warholm has much less upside.

He has a better PB at 400 until 26th August. Warholm is running 400 flat in Lausanne.

The 400m hurdler who achieved the second fastest performance in the history of the universe should not change events.

1500/5Kfan wrote:

he has virtually no chance to unseat warholm. might as well move up. he could run 1:42 mid or faster in three years if he committed to it now

No. This is good for Rai. We're going to see the best of him for years to come because he will always be trying to catch Warholm. This is the greatest thing to happen for Rai's development. When things get tough you don't quit, you get tougher.

Benjamin is much fitter than Johnson and Johnson was ~1:47

And Wariner running 1;53, that was like a cool down to his career.

But Benjamin will stick to 400 hurdles, the event most helped by carbon plates.

See David Patrick, former world class 400m hurdler. Switched to the 800m during Edwin's reign. Returned to the 400 hurdles and was faster.

No chance. Benjamin still has some hesitation and choppiness to the 400 hurdles while Warholm has maximized. Ato Boldon is wrong. That record is not going down again. The 45.94 will be the record on the day most of us die. That event is going back into the low 47s with only an occasional dip into 46. Benjamin can easily defeat Warholm at world championships even if he's considerably slower than Tokyo.

The female 400 hurdles is another matter. Entering Tokyo I thought it was a soft record that could easily drop .75 or thereabouts. I didn't think the men's record would lower by more than .2 or .3. They did it in reverse. Consequently the women's mark still has room to lower, especially if Femke Bol works on her strength and specifically the final sprint to the line. Femke Bol is a perfect pace car for Sydney because they always clear hurdles 1-8 at almost the identical time. I discovered that before Tokyo and posted the specifics on Reddit. Sydney is only .1 ahead of Bol while both clear hurdle 8. The gap between them grows slightly between 8 and 9 but doesn't really expand until the final sprint. The pre-Tokyo races featured that tendency and it played out in the final. Sydney was roughly 2 yards ahead of Bol clearing 9 then it ballooned to roughly 5 meters at finish.

Dalilah Muhammad is like Warholm in that she's at maximum already. The Tokyo final is the fastest she'll ever run. Sydney is like Benjamin in that there is still a bit of hesitation and choppiness. But to take that record lower Sydney is going to need a 3-way...with Bol improving as a slightly faster pace car while Muhammad is still young enough to open a gap.

Curious_Cat wrote:

yeah, dude who just ran faster than the old WR should switch events. This board's stupidity has reached a new height.

I disagree. I saw people arguing that McLaughlin should switch events.

My point is that there are people who are silly, and it's not just in this thread.

dsrunner wrote:

But Benjamin will stick to 400 hurdles, the event most helped by carbon plates.

It does seem that way. Definitely. I don't know much about the new shoe technology but I've followed the 400 hurdles since Edwin Moses. The race always collapsed more than seemed logical. Most of it was declining speed over the final two hurdles accompanied by a jarring landing. That jarring landing really contributed to choppy slow staggering finishes, and tons of erratic results.

Now with the new shoes the runners seem to be able to maintain their speed and freshness just long enough to clear the final two hurdles with some bounce in their step. Obviously the more speed you carry into the final hurdle the flatter you can take it. Warholm is now making hurdle 10 look like hurdle 8 in the old days. He's still low and extending instead of surviving.

If the race were extended to 11 or 12 hurdles the shoes wouldn't be as much of a factor. That's my best summary. Guys would be dying anyway. Carbon plates extend their form just long enough to make an unmanageable race barely manageable.

Dalilah Muhammad has to be frustrated at the women's final. The entire difference in that race was that she had a bit of a jolt and pause on the landing after 10, while Sydney was like a trampoline.

Bekoji wrote:

Warholm hits a hurdle and Benjamin wins.

That said, love a debate about how some sprinter/hurdler should move up to the 800. Favorite topic on all high school and college track teams. Spoiler alert: it never works. There are a very small number of exceptions: Juantorena, Mu.

You’re not wrong, it is rare, but let’s add Dobek to the list with Juantorena & Mu. Olympic 800 bronze in his first season moving up from 400 hurdles.

How many examples until we say this is a real possible thing that 400 guys should at least explore?

whaaaaaat wrote:

The 400m hurdler who achieved the second fastest performance in the history of the universe should not change events.

Yes. Imagine running 46.17 for 400H and the OP wants him to change events. By this reasoning, the only athlete in the world who should be running 400H is Warholm.

KaareV wrote:

Les wrote:

No. Benjamin is almost a year and a half younger and faster than Warholm at 100, 200 and 400. He just needs to keep working hard. Warholm has much less upside.

He has a better PB at 400 until 26th August. Warholm is running 400 flat in Lausanne.

Will run 44.3-44.5

Your list is disrespectful to Alberto Juantorena. Patryk Dobek earned his 800m Olympic bronze but he was barely elite at 400mH. Patryk Dobek's 400m personal best is a good time for a NCAA mid-major conference guy or D-2 400m athlete. It is unfair to place Athing Mu in the same sentence as Alberto Juantorena. Her career is not over but A. Mu would not have won 400m gold at this past Olympic. I have made posts over the past several weeks stating I would like T&F expanded to 12 days to allow doubling of more events without schedule overlap. That is not what O.P. stated. O.P. and topic of this thread is Rai Benjamin discontinuing racing 400mH and switching events to 800m. What O.P. stated is foolish. Your P. Dobek statement, with his 46.xx 400m does not make O.P.'s idea sound. I have stated on other threads: Alberto Juantorena chose to double in my opinion as a HEDGE not to dominate. Juantorena missed 400m final, 1972. If Juantorena would have medaled, 1972, I doubt he would have added 800m, 1976.

It is okay to discuss 400m athletes moving up to 800m. In U.S., for decades up to 1978 or 1979, 440 yards was raced in high school meets. In 1970's, 440 yards was raced with one turn stagger, 880 yards was also raced with one turn stagger. When 440 yards was raced with one turn stagger, some gals & guys raced negative splits and of course many raced 440 yards positive splits. In that era, going from 440 yards to 880 yards was a smoother transition. Today, the races are very different, 400m & 800m.

I would like Olympic & W.C. schedule expanded to 12 days to allow doubles in numerous events without schedule conflict. With current schedule, Rai Benjamin remains a 400mH athlete and the discussion of R. Benjamin switching to 800m is foolish.

Rai Benjamin has run a legal sub 20 second 200m. Ergo, he is a sprinter and there is ZERO chance he can be genuinely world class at 800m.

Furthermore he just ran (by a considerable distance) the 2nd fastest 400mH ever and still looks to me to have enough upside to bridge that gap as it essentially came down to the last 50m. Switching to 800m would be beyond idiotic

Awsi Dooger wrote:

No chance. Benjamin still has some hesitation and choppiness to the 400 hurdles while Warholm has maximized.

To avoid chopping, next year Benjamin will switch to 12 steps for the first half of the race and beat Warholm.

French Dawg wrote:

KaareV wrote:

He has a better PB at 400 until 26th August. Warholm is running 400 flat in Lausanne.

Will run 44.3-44.5

That might be right, given that is down from his peak. But not so, let's say 43.8-44.1.