Rupp and Molly's Chances of Winning a Major Marathon This Fall

juvie wrote:

Rupp has a chance. Molly close to none

Rupp is hands down USA’s best marathoner and can handle pretty much any set of conditions (flat, hilly, hot, cold)

Molly is among the top 5 female marathoners in the US. She’s shown ability in “specialty marathons” (hot, hilly) but unproven in fast ones. Not far off, but Hall beat her by a good bit at London

Garbage post. Seidel is a Championship racer, Olympian, and Olympic medalist. Sara is a time trialist and not an Olympian. Seidel is only 27, keeps getting better, and very likely to win a WMM in her career. On a fast course she could get the American record.

truth be told. wrote:

juvie wrote:

Rupp has a chance. Molly close to none

Rupp is hands down USA’s best marathoner and can handle pretty much any set of conditions (flat, hilly, hot, cold)

Molly is among the top 5 female marathoners in the US. She’s shown ability in “specialty marathons” (hot, hilly) but unproven in fast ones. Not far off, but Hall beat her by a good bit at London

Garbage post. Seidel is a Championship racer, Olympian, and Olympic medalist. Sara is a time trialist and not an Olympian. Seidel is only 27, keeps getting better, and very likely to win a WMM in her career. On a fast course she could get the American record.

My rankings show that Sara is a chance of a major win, Molly only another minor medal.

Don't know why you're including Huddle in the discussion. Huddle has never come close to winning a major. Nor will she at her age. She's a good marathoner but not nearly good enough to win a major. Sisson is much more of a possibility to win a major.

Les wrote:

Don't know why you're including Huddle in the discussion. Huddle has never come close to winning a major. Nor will she at her age. She's a good marathoner but not nearly good enough to win a major. Sisson is much more of a possibility to win a major.

The other Molly

truth be told. wrote:

juvie wrote:

Rupp has a chance. Molly close to none

Rupp is hands down USA’s best marathoner and can handle pretty much any set of conditions (flat, hilly, hot, cold)

Molly is among the top 5 female marathoners in the US. She’s shown ability in “specialty marathons” (hot, hilly) but unproven in fast ones. Not far off, but Hall beat her by a good bit at London

Garbage post. Seidel is a Championship racer, Olympian, and Olympic medalist. Sara is a time trialist and not an Olympian. Seidel is only 27, keeps getting better, and very likely to win a WMM in her career. On a fast course she could get the American record.

I don’t see Seidel ever running the American Record, but she’s come along at just the right time to fill the void left by Des Linden, and I expect more “surprise” podium finishes to come.

2:21:42 lifetime best. Book it!

Hall is doing Chicago isn't she? If so, New York may choose to set up a field that gives Seidel a shot. Right now, I think her PB is soft, she's only run in difficult conditions so even though she isn't high on the US all-time list, she's probably better than everyone other than Hall. London will probably pay most for Jepchirchir and Kosgei so the New York field might be weak.

Realistically, Seidel isn't going to be in shape to run a good time this fall. She'll be smart enough to take at least two weeks off after Tokyo leaving maybe enough time for an 8 week build, unless she goes for Valencia in December. Maybe next year she can take a shot at a really fast time but I think all the quick marathons will be in the fall again in 2022

High hopes wrote:

Hall is doing Chicago isn't she? If so, New York may choose to set up a field that gives Seidel a shot. Right now, I think her PB is soft, she's only run in difficult conditions so even though she isn't high on the US all-time list, she's probably better than everyone other than Hall. London will probably pay most for Jepchirchir and Kosgei so the New York field might be weak.

Realistically, Seidel isn't going to be in shape to run a good time this fall. She'll be smart enough to take at least two weeks off after Tokyo leaving maybe enough time for an 8 week build, unless she goes for Valencia in December. Maybe next year she can take a shot at a really fast time but I think all the quick marathons will be in the fall again in 2022

Such a good response, thank you.

Your rankings based on what? Hall has a lifetime history of flopping under pressure. Seidel has a history of nailing it under pressure and keeps getting better. She’s only 27 too. Kastor was 33 when she set the AR to win London, two years after her Olympic bronze.

High hopes wrote:

Hall is doing Chicago isn't she? If so, New York may choose to set up a field that gives Seidel a shot. Right now, I think her PB is soft, she's only run in difficult conditions so even though she isn't high on the US all-time list, she's probably better than everyone other than Hall. London will probably pay most for Jepchirchir and Kosgei so the New York field might be weak.

Realistically, Seidel isn't going to be in shape to run a good time this fall. She'll be smart enough to take at least two weeks off after Tokyo leaving maybe enough time for an 8 week build, unless she goes for Valencia in December. Maybe next year she can take a shot at a really fast time but I think all the quick marathons will be in the fall again in 2022

Agree - NY might be too soon, but you never know. 12 weeks or so? Doable, and would depend on the field. But Valencia would be a much better shout.

I think London will be stacked in 2022 - high pay, low restrictions (at that point), and direct travel. Wouldn't be surprised to see Hall and Seidel both at London '22 along with the Kenyans, because it'll be planned for April which suits nicely, and the big US marathons will likely be in the second half of the year.

P.s. I think Kipchoge will be there for the men's marathon.

Winning? I’m not so sure. Getting on the podium? Fairly strong chance either could do that.

I wouldn't count on London being in April next year

She’ll be at NYC. Do not see her wanting to do anything other than keep working. I also do not see her ever winning a major. She can get faster and always be within striking distance of the podium but she does not have what the East Africans have. Specialty marathons, as posted before, is perfectly put. However, she is fun to follow and cheer for. Awesome personality and tough runner.

She will not run a marathon this fall- I’d bet my hat on that. This was an emotional tough gutsy run that I think took a lot out of her. Turning around and running NYC in 12 weeks would be a recipe for burnout and/ or injury. I suspect she will rest on her laurels this fall , drink a few brewskis, and the next time we will see her will be in Boston next April

Aren’t the majors are tougher to win than Olympics because African nations have no limit on how many they can enter?

I would think Molly S should run Boston, as it’s the one marathon known by the masses and also doesn’t have the super deep fields like London or Berlin. Like someone said, bask in the Bronze medal ( I think she is starting the Falmouth Road Race this weekend and donating a good chunk of $$ to charity in the town). I’m not sure what Boston would pay her to come, but I think Des Linden cleaned up the year after she won coming back.

I hate to be 'that guy' but the chances Molly stays healthy enough to put herself in contention to win a WMM is below 50% IMO.

sg1 wrote:

Aren’t the majors are tougher to win than Olympics because African nations have no limit on how many they can enter?

I would think Molly S should run Boston, as it’s the one marathon known by the masses and also doesn’t have the super deep fields like London or Berlin. Like someone said, bask in the Bronze medal ( I think she is starting the Falmouth Road Race this weekend and donating a good chunk of $$ to charity in the town). I’m not sure what Boston would pay her to come, but I think Des Linden cleaned up the year after she won coming back.

The African nation thing is watered down this fall with all six majors plus Valencia so close together that the talent will be more spread.

Chicago is a water downed Nike setup so Rupp will have a chance. But if he ran with the big boys in NY or Berlin absolutely not.

She has been pretty healthy of late except for that freak shoulder injury from tripping over a dog.

After training through a pandemic, I would take a break, but I’m also not an elite runner. I say she does New York and hits the podium. She could win Chicago on a bad weather day with less elite competition.

de grasse high wrote:

She has been pretty healthy of late except for that freak shoulder injury from tripping over a dog.

After training through a pandemic, I would take a break, but I’m also not an elite runner. I say she does New York and hits the podium. She could win Chicago on a bad weather day with less elite competition.

Yeah I could see her pulling a Desi Linden in the Boston frozen hurricane of 2018. Extreme conditions fit her toughness. The thing is that major marathons are rarely run in extreme conditions. Maybe a hot Chicago would be her best bet.