Major epic fail
Major epic fail
SanDiegorunner wrote:
Kerley will make the team don’t sleep on him 🤫
False.
ya..... wrote:
I look at it this way. If you had a chance to 10x your salary would you take it? He would go from a guy the rest of the world has never heard of to a god among men overnight.
This is a good way to look at. But If you have a 0.1% chance to 10x your salary, and a 99.9% chance to lower your salary (not sure by how much, maybe half if he doesn't make the Olympic team?), it might not be a good idea. Depends on your risk tolerance and marginal utility for money.
ya..... wrote:
I look at it this way. If you had a chance to 10x your salary would you take it? He would go from a guy the rest of the world has never heard of to a god among men overnight.
Agreed.
With the status of the 100m, he has a unique chance to find himself as the USAs/the Worlds fastest man.
That'll make him a lot more money than any 400m result.
Bythebay12 wrote:
If you are good at the 100 and good at the 400 you are de facto good at the 200 because of physiology, assuming you aren’t terrible at curve running
Ummmm....hate to break it to you but check out his 200m progression over the years...
He will likely not make it in either race. He is a lock in the 400. Terrible mistake.
He was running some impressive 100's earlier this year, and I was thinking to myself, "Self, what could Kerley run in a 400 if he's running this fast in the 100?"... And it turned out his 400 meter races weren't as impressive. Seems he is somehow better this year at the 100 than the 400. I think this is a decent decision, and certainly a unique situation.
Martin has run 9 since that day, he’s beaten gatlin, laird is tired and has run 10. Flat recently his real competition is bromell young bracy and baker
Kerley’s 100m form is surprisingly decent. He is a credible 10-flat guy, which is impressive.
We never know who will win, that’s why the race is run. Do not count him out.
He is currently tied with Baker for 5th on the basic list at 10.01, and they are tied for the 4th American behind Young, Bromell, and Williams. Behind them are Lyles and Gatlin at 10.04 and 10.05.
Bromell should beat him.
Young has been on fire, and has run fast twice. I think he’s maxxed, but I don’t think FK can match that sort of time. Young should beat him, too.
Williams is only at 10.00, only .01 ahead of Kerley, so essentially even—but he had a headwind and a bit of altitude, and has not been able to really back it up, unlike Kerley. Kerley should beat him.
Lyles is improving, and can peak for big meets. I would favor him over Kerley in the trials 100, but he will need to have a good race. That one’s tight.
Same with Gatlin, who has looked dull and who hasn’t been improving, and who has lost to Kerley head-to-head. Because of his champ history I would favor him over Kerley, but only just.
So IMO FK is behind the front 2, but has a shot against the trailing 2, with a few guys like Williams, King, Bracy, etc as wildcards—especially Bracy.
FK is definitely in the mix for a relay spot in Tokyo.
In the 200, I have no idea. I guess he knows how training has been going. He COULD get a spot, but Norman screws things up. I like Lyles; Bednarek has finally shown some consistency; Laird is good but I think Kerley could match his times; who the F knows in the 2. I could see 19.8x from Kerley. An outside shot, IMO, if he executes well.
The 400? Only Kerley knows how his energy systems feel, how he has been training. Sure he can run it, but maybe he doesn’t feel he knows how to best run it given his training this year.
I trust his sense of himself. I see him making the 4x1 team on time; whether or not they name him to the team or use him is another thing.
I could see Norman doing this before Fred. Wth is he thinking.
Let it Rupp wrote:
NativeSon wrote:
HE is done!
1. BROMell
2. Young
3. Bracy
4. Baker
5. Jo'vaugh Martin
6. Gatlin
7. Bednarek
8. Laird
The man has to beat six of these people if they all choose to run. He WON'T!
....and there could be other college guys.
You forgot Matt MF Boling
Well dumb dumb, unlike Boling the people listed hit the 100m OT standard.
That said, Laird scratched.
Sprintgeezer wrote:
Kerley’s 100m form is surprisingly decent. He is a credible 10-flat guy, which is impressive.
We never know who will win, that’s why the race is run. Do not count him out.
He is currently tied with Baker for 5th on the basic list at 10.01, and they are tied for the 4th American behind Young, Bromell, and Williams. Behind them are Lyles and Gatlin at 10.04 and 10.05.
Bromell should beat him.
Young has been on fire, and has run fast twice. I think he’s maxxed, but I don’t think FK can match that sort of time. Young should beat him, too.
Williams is only at 10.00, only .01 ahead of Kerley, so essentially even—but he had a headwind and a bit of altitude, and has not been able to really back it up, unlike Kerley. Kerley should beat him.
Lyles is improving, and can peak for big meets. I would favor him over Kerley in the trials 100, but he will need to have a good race. That one’s tight.
Same with Gatlin, who has looked dull and who hasn’t been improving, and who has lost to Kerley head-to-head. Because of his champ history I would favor him over Kerley, but only just.
So IMO FK is behind the front 2, but has a shot against the trailing 2, with a few guys like Williams, King, Bracy, etc as wildcards—especially Bracy.
FK is definitely in the mix for a relay spot in Tokyo.
In the 200, I have no idea. I guess he knows how training has been going. He COULD get a spot, but Norman screws things up. I like Lyles; Bednarek has finally shown some consistency; Laird is good but I think Kerley could match his times; who the F knows in the 2. I could see 19.8x from Kerley. An outside shot, IMO, if he executes well.
The 400? Only Kerley knows how his energy systems feel, how he has been training. Sure he can run it, but maybe he doesn’t feel he knows how to best run it given his training this year.
I trust his sense of himself. I see him making the 4x1 team on time; whether or not they name him to the team or use him is another thing.
You are correct. All these posters call F. Kerley a fool do not know how Kerley feels. If F. Kerley does not believe he as a sub-44.25 400m in him, Kerley knows best.
Remember 2008 when Usain Bolt made the 100 his primary event?
Bolt had a 9.7 pr before the Olympics and ran 10.03 his first 100m in 2007, and he also hated 400m training. The switch made sense
If fred kerley feels he has a 9.8 mid or better in him and doesn't feel he has a sub 44 in him this year, then this make sense too
I really hope he makes the team. His 9.91 speed is great but the US is loaded at 100m and there is little room for an off race. He is great at the 200m and 400m as well. I thought his best chances are at the 400m but he must know how things are going in training. I hope it works out for him.
Yeah, he needs to have a great race.
He still has not adapted his body to 100m turnover, and you can see it in his vmax and maintenance--he still looks like he's maintaining in a 400. Likewise, his blocks aren't great, he doesn't have the body position on drive, and he sits and churns. He has run fast on power mixed with a bit of front-side form, but he can't really hit it maybe because of all his past training and neurology, maybe because he can't get his body in the right position.
So much work to do, so little time. He has a non-zero shot, but only that. Beating an aging Gatlin who was flying around the world before a major is one thing; beating rested guys who know how to do a 100m is another. Bromell, Baker, Gatlin, and even Bracy come to mind...and now maybe Young, although the jury's out on him. And Lyles can run HIS 100m, unwinding from 20m onward, and will blow past Kerley.
Man I'm jonesin', I can't wait. I think I went too hard yesterday because of the jack, my legs are tired today. I haven't been this fired-up about a meet in a long time. Of course last year sucked, but still, this is going to have some super-interesting things going on, where I will want to watch every guy on the track but won't be able to because it's too much info.
I'm looking forward to tons of video review
Thank you. Great post. I can't wait to see what happens at the Olympic Trials in the 100m, 200m, and 400m. The US is loaded with sprint talent.
The 200 makes sense. He's probably just going for a spot on the 4x1 team. Highly doubt he thinks he can get top 3, but who knows. Heck he may still get a spot on the 4x4 also. Match what Allison Felix did in 2012.
It's likely USA coaches can still put him in the relay pool despite not running the open 400. Rai Benjamin, for example, ran the 400m hurdles in Doha 2019 as his individual event and was still in the relay pool. Despite not competing in the open 400m as his relay teammates did. Assuming Kerley makes the team in either event (or both) I'm sure we'll see him on the 4x400m relay. We'll just have to wait and see.
We don’t know how Kerley’s training sessions have been going. I would guess very well if he is confident enough to trial in the 100. His 200 performances clearly are below his potential; he should at least be able to run 19.9.
Anyways, this move certainly thins out the 400m ranks for the US. Who makes it? Norman, obviously. Ross, given his performance in the NCAAs. Who’s next man up? Noah Williams? Hopefully he still has some juice after a long college season.