Kara at Lisbon

Old Runner wrote:

Based on the strong belief from both AlSal and Kara regarding her chances tomorrow, what do think she will run?

She had some strong recent indoor times with little speed work, and judging from last year's time in the half and subsequent marathon training I trust it's likely she will put up a solid time.

I am going to project a 65:43. That's about 5:01 per mile. What do you all think on this one?

i say 66:30, which would be a big improvement of her 66:53 slight downhill at the great north half marathon, 66:25 is the world record on an official course, though radcliffe ran 65:40 on great north's slightly downhill course.

Old Runner wrote:

I am going to project a 65:43. That's about 5:01 per mile. What do you all think on this one?

No way, jose. Let me guess- you were also one of those people who thought the other Goucher, in his debut track 10k, was going to challenge Meb's AR. You're predicting she breaks the world record of Paula Radcliffe, she of the 2:15 marathon, by over 30 seconds? You're high, old man.

I'm thinking best case scenario is right around the WR, giver or take 5-10 seconds. I just can't see her breaking 66- that's seriously fast for a woman. That's easily sub 2:19 marathon shape. We'll see- I'd love to be dead wrong.

I think she was an ordinary athlete and something AlSal did (he of EPO is fair game) made her good.

Strange I know.

People like her make me sick.

I appreciate she's white, American and attractive and for these reasons could never have doped.

Considering how popular the event has become, the women's half-marathon record has remained remarkably soft. I think Al and Kara know that this is a great opportunity to pick off a big world record before someone else puts it out of Kara's reach, and they're not going to blow this opportunity. I'll say 66:10.

Considering her main focus is Boston and given her times at other distances, I'm guessing closer to 68 than 66. Maybe if she has a good day she might get close to Paula Radcliffe's best time on a flat course, which 66:47 at Bristol in 2001, but if I had to pick a number I'd say closer to 68 - still good enough for first or second.

If she is in good marathon shape then she will have a difficult time running marathon pace. I hope 69 minutes. This would tell me that she is training correctly for Boston. She should be in her highest volume phase right now. If she runs under 67 ninutes she will not be a factor in Boston.

I know what AlSal said, but I'd be surprised to see her below 67. Wasn't that 66 she ran was on a slightly downhill course?

And I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Kara has ability to break the HM record ,however she will not do it tomorrow simply because her focus has been mainly training for Boston marathon.I think salzaar is just trying to psyche her up to run a superb time tommorrow,which she will do.When she decides to train focussing on just breaking the record she will do it.

Anyone know how i can watch it?

66:25

where dreams become reality wrote:

I know what AlSal said, but I'd be surprised to see her below 67. Wasn't that 66 she ran was on a slightly downhill course?

Yes. As far as I'm aware, there have been very few performances by world-class women on record-quality half-marathon courses over the last decade. Elana Meyer and Esther Wanjiru broke 67 over ten years ago, and only three women have done so since then. Only Kiplagat has run faster than Meyer did back in 1999.

charlie day wrote:

Old Runner wrote:

I am going to project a 65:43. That's about 5:01 per mile. What do you all think on this one?

No way, jose. Let me guess- you were also one of those people who thought the other Goucher, in his debut track 10k, was going to challenge Meb's AR. You're predicting she breaks the world record of Paula Radcliff...

We're not talking about Mr. Goucher. And, this isn't Kara's debut. Many elites drop 3-4 seconds per mile in subsequent Half and marathon attempts. She is much more conditioned and sharper than her last half. Furthermore, just because Radcliff holds the record doesn't mean it's untouchable. I agree with the poster above, the half record is soft compared to the marathon record. I am just pointing out that if the race unfolds perfectly, Kara may be able to bring a surprisingly good time.

I'm always glad to have someone agree with me, but we should all be clear that Kiplagat, not Radcliffe, holds the world record. Radcliffe and someone else (a Kenyan runner, I think it may have been Margaret Okayo) ran sub-66 on an aided course; their times are not recognized by the IAAF.

trollism wrote:

I think she was an ordinary athlete and something AlSal did (he of EPO is fair game) made her good.

Strange I know.

People like her make me sick.

I appreciate she's white, American and attractive and for these reasons could never have doped.

That's a pretty deep accusation. Do you know this for a fact? You 'think it' therefore it's true? Do you know Al Salazar or Kara? I'm curious how you came to this conclusion.

1:07:02

she's fit. won the mile, won the 3K, and has looked fantastic the whole time...she indeed a threat to win Boston (much more so that Hall)

Class act. Go Kara!

Jax involved wrote:

If she is in good marathon shape then she will have a difficult time running marathon pace. I hope 69 minutes. This would tell me that she is training correctly for Boston. She should be in her highest volume phase right now. If she runs under 67 ninutes she will not be a factor in Boston.

Actually, I think this is a really good point. In a way, I hope you're right. On the other hand, if she does run a strong time (let's say under 67:30.), is it an indication of her improved conditioning or a reckless attempt at a WR and jeopardizing her Boston attempt? I hope it's a statement about her improved conditioning.

Avocados Number wrote:

I'm always glad to have someone agree with me, but we should all be clear that Kiplagat, not Radcliffe, holds the world record...

Yes, my bad!

still not sure how I feel about talking up a run before it happens. Although they say the only difference between cockiness and confidence is doing what you claim you will...

susan chepkemei was the only other women to break 66 minutes for the half marathon when she ran 1:05:44 also at lisboa on a slightly downhill course, they have made changes to the lisboa half marathon course so it is now legal for record purposes (not a downhill course anymore).